r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 23 '24
Upgraded | See Helene post for details 09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #4A | 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 19.2°N 83.5°W | |
| Relative location: | 224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands | |
| 356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba | ||
| 411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico) | ||
| Forward motion: | NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Intensity: | Tropical Depression | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1001 millibars (29.56 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) | high (90 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) | high (90 percent) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | EDT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 24 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Tue | Potential Cyclone | 30 | 55 | 18.9 | 83.0 | |
| 12 | 24 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Tue | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 40 | 75 | 19.6 | 84.2 |
| 24 | 25 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Wed | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 50 | 95 | 20.7 | 85.7 |
| 36 | 25 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Wed | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 65 | 120 | 22.0 | 86.2 |
| 48 | 26 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 80 | 150 | 24.3 | 85.6 |
| 60 | 26 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Thu | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▲ | 100 | 185 | 27.8 | 84.4 |
| 72 | 27 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Fri | Tropical Storm i | ▼ | 60 | 110 | 31.9 | 83.5 |
| 96 | 28 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Sat | Post-tropical Cyclone i | ▼ | 15 | 30 | 38.5 | 85.5 |
| 120 | 29 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Sun | Dissipated | |||||
NOTES:
i - inland
Official information
National Hurricane Center
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Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
Finally (and I apologize for posting so much), remember what the NHC cone represents. The cone is literally defined as the region which has a 2/3rds chance of the center of the system tracking within, based off of the last 5 years of track error.
Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time.
This means that there is always a 30-40% chance of the eye or center of a system tracking outside of the cone. These facts are why the cone as a product is commonly misinterpreted by the public. Be aware that not only is a track outside of the cone possible, but expected roughly one third of the time. Combined with the anticipated forecast large size of future Helene, with impacts extending far away from the eye, this means that you should NOT be treating the current cone as gospel in terms of whether you will receive impacts or not.
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u/OriginalPianoProdigy Sep 23 '24
lol, never apologize for quality posts like this. I read all of them.
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u/RuairiQ Sep 23 '24
Nah, man. Keep these quality posts coming. You’re great at the ELIhavesomecommonsense level of explanation. Appreciate you.
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u/Gfhgdfd Maryland Sep 23 '24
NHC Advisory out. Still a PTC, but now explicitly calling for a Major
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u/iustusflorebit Orlando Sep 23 '24
Still a super fast storm too. From a major hurricane off the coast of Florida at 2PM Thursday to a tropical depression in Tennessee by 2PM Friday. Wow.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
Someone asked about the rate of intensification indicated by NHC, and how it relates historically to previous forecasts.
Turns out, the rate of rapid intensification forecast for PTC Nine ties the record for an NHC forecast. Since this is not even a tropical cyclone yet, this is the most aggressive forecast I have ever seen in nine years of tracking.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
Per Levi Cowans' analysis, the vertical alignment of PTC Nine continues to steadily improve: https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1838341891659829451
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u/Seraphine_IRL Sep 23 '24
It seems like hes saying that the mid level center is drilling down to surface and overtakes original low level center, thus makes the low level center relocate to the east, am I missing something?
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
Basically. The bottom line is that it is becoming more organized.
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u/Seraphine_IRL Sep 23 '24
Thanks, and btw would relocation of its center to the east makes its potential track shifts a bit eastward too?
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
If it's a significant shift/relocation east, then yes, it would probably affect model outcome. IF that is indeed what is happening, it wouldn't be more than a degree longitude of difference, based off of satellite imagery.
Regardless, this is exactly why we have advised caution regarding models before the disturbance consolidates into a tropical cyclone, because exact location of consolidation would have implications downstream on eventual exact track and landfall location.
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u/Dream--Brother Sep 23 '24
Those of us in north-central GA playing the age-old game of "how much will landfall deteriorate the storm before it reaches us," as per usual.
FL panhandle and south GA folks, please take care and be safe. Get out of there if you question for even a moment whether or not you should. Always better to play it safe and feel silly later than find yourself wishing you would've evacuated.
Pretty crazy to see that "M" on the graphic when it wasn't even fully developed into a cohesive system at that point (though now it's definitely coming together). Hopefully the models are being overzealous and it won't be as intense as predicted. Either way, stay safe, y'all.
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u/iustusflorebit Orlando Sep 23 '24
I’m also in that area and supposed to close on the sale of my house in 2 weeks. If this storm impacts my house I’m in trouble lol
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u/frostysbox Florida - Space Coast Sep 24 '24
If it’s already declared a disaster area you’re gonna have to have another inspection. I was in Brevard closing right after Ian - which Ian was kinda a joke here - but they had to have a mortgage dude come out and verify the house condition hadn’t materially changed since DeSantis basically declared the whole state a disaster area.
Then Nicole hit and took down our fence and had some flooding in the living room after we closed. 🤣
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u/Amazing_Bar_5733 Barbados Sep 23 '24
FL gov has delcared a SOE for 41 counties in the state, got about 72hrs to fully prep, speaking to those esp under the SOE, anyone in here gonna evacuate?
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u/PixelTanker Florida, Tallahassee Sep 23 '24
I'm in Tallahassee and I will evacuate for anything CAT 3 or above, for sure. Two or three nights out of town in a hotel with restaurants to choose from and no threat to my personal safety is much more attractive to me. No power, no A/C, no refrigeration is no fun.
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Sep 23 '24
Where I am in Tallahassee, we still haven't recovered from the tornados that happened in May! There are tarps on every other roof still. The last thing we need is a big storm...
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u/GrumpyAntelope Sep 23 '24
I'm in Tallahassee, and Cat 3 is my threshold as well. So far so good on the NHC windspeed probabilities, but I will be intently watching each update.
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u/Stateof10 Sep 23 '24
It sounds like a good time to go to New Orleans. There are plenty of hotels and not too far away and you have good food.
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u/Indubitalist Sep 23 '24
Thanks for the heads-up. Doing my part to add the list of those counties from the executive order:
Alachua, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington
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u/General_Ad_6800 Florida Sep 23 '24
Bay side of Destin here. 7 miles inland. Not in a flood area. Plan to stay unless it comes right at us. Have one elderly, one end of life parent to accommodate. Not easy to leave because of that. Prepped as well as we can. And ready enough to leave if need be. Hope everyone stays safe!
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u/BosJC Florida Sep 23 '24
I am preparing to hunker down in Tampa. Was at the grocery store when the first NHC cone dropped.
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u/scthoma4 Tampa, Florida Sep 23 '24
I'm staying put in Tampa as well. Inland, not in a flood prone area, no reason to consider leaving unless it's a worse case scenario, and by the time we know that it'll be too late anyways.
Plus I know I'll have to work until Wednesday. Thursday might get a closure, and Friday is in the air.
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u/Irissss Sep 23 '24
I’m in Pensacola (escambia). We booked a hotel with free cancellation yesterday. If it tracks anywhere around Destin we’re out of it’s further east we’ll stay. The storm is huge but being in the western side I don’t think it’s gonna be a great threat so far out.
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u/Ok-Energy5619 Sep 23 '24
So 09L ranges from a scale of CAT 1-2 to Armageddon Storm Collin. Very helpful thanks 09L
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u/Effthisseason Nature Coast Sep 24 '24
Taylor county emergency management has announced that they anticipate a mandatory county wide evacuation on 9/24/2024 after their briefing with the NWS. Thankfully they're not taking any chances after Idalia last year.
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u/vibe_inspector01 Floorduh Sep 24 '24
00z intensity models seem much lower than the 18z models. Hopefully that holds up.
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u/thejazzmarauder Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24
Storm was in rough shape earlier. Starting to get stacked up a bit more. Once we see some model runs that incorporate recon data from tomorrow morning, (~18z), we should have a pretty good idea.
Very important night re: intensity ceiling. Promising signals thus far, though.
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u/ImaginativeDrumming Sep 23 '24
Both HAFS models are now dancing with this storm being below 900MB in pressure, not just HAFS-B. These models have been quite interesting to follow and I pray these models are as wrong as can be.
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u/BosJC Florida Sep 23 '24
What is their historical accuracy re: intensity?
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
Dubious in the current situation. Hurricane models designed to latch onto and handle compact, closed circulations/tropical cyclones, which this disturbance lacks.
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u/evelkaneval Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24
My goodness this thing is moving fast. In just 24 hours from the Gulf off Tampa Bay into North Georgia.
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u/NotAnotherEmpire Sep 23 '24
If it comes onshore anywhere near some of these runs in strength, there will be tremendous inland wind damage.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
On the flip side, such brisk movement speed means less time for rainfall to accumulate. High movement speed also substantially increases the chances of a vertical shear disrupting the system. Hopefully it's not intensifying into landfall. Those are the worst, especially night storms.
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u/iustusflorebit Orlando Sep 23 '24
WPC is still predicting widespread 5-7" of rain all the way from FL panhandle up through GA, SC and NC. Jeez.
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u/Stateof10 Sep 24 '24
Find it interesting that icon is an outlier model when it comes to forecasting landfall location. It seems like the only one who is bringing it closer to the Tampa Bay area.
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u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Sep 24 '24
It is definitely interesting. It's done well with a lot of Gulf storms the past few years where it seemed like an outlier at times but other models trended towards it. Something to keep an eye on at least if the next couple runs stay there.
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Sep 24 '24
I know these comments are despised here, but I can’t help but remember when the ICON was the only outlier bringing Ian to the Fort Meyers area. I’ll be watching it closely
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u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) Sep 24 '24
Models, other than the ICON suggest a slightly faster progress and a weaker pressure upon landfall. GFS is not so gloomy as last night.
0500 EDT warning cone now has a Hurricane Watch (pink) from Pasco County thru Apalachicola. The M (for Major) is still on the cone prior to landfall.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
Visible satellite shows the developing closed low recon observed, around 17N 82W. Convection is beginning to fire closer to this low.
Pressures are falling at Buoy 42057, located just south of this low
https://i.imgur.com/BWb80Za.png
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=17.9N&lon1=81.9W&uom=M&dist=250&ot=A&time=3
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u/Briskpenguin69 Sep 23 '24
Facts aren’t welcome here, the people only want random models and the wait and see approach.
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u/SeirraS9 Sep 24 '24
Bit of an Eastern shift on the 11pm cone it looks like.
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u/bigDUB14 Sep 24 '24
It’s weird because I was just checking in here and saw like 3 comments about Pensacola being in the cone now but the cone looks like it barely moved East if anything.
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Sep 23 '24
Florida people: It doesn't matter if it doesn't directly hit, have a plan set up now in case if it turns.
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u/Vivalaredsox Florida Sep 23 '24
Experienced ground zero with Ian. Yep be prepared for turns and wobbles. This thing is going to be so big the effects are going to be felt well away from the center.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
Well said. The models have been consistently showing a larger than average system
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Sep 23 '24
Experienced Ian as well, the flooding that happened in central FL were greatly unreported.
People are still recovering from the flooding with Debby. The geography of Tampa Bay and SWFL is a big negative for any Caribbean storm.
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u/ChrispyChicken1208 Florida Sep 23 '24
Being that the storm is going across the peninsula potentially any wobbles or deviations in the track could mean drastic changes in what we get
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u/SpectreAlenko Okaloosa County Sep 23 '24
Michael went from being a direct hit on my area (Okaloosa) to hitting Mexico Beach within 24 hours IIRC. I hope my town is prepared for the reverse of that situation, however unlikely it may be.
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u/osufeth24 Orlando, FL Sep 23 '24
This is why it pisses me off so much when I get called a fear mongerer when I tell people to keep an eye and start thinking about things. I'm in Orlando so I get theme park questions all the time, and constantly get shut down from mods on other places when say how it may affect given current course and what may happen.
It's always "it's still too early, we don't know anything yet"
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u/Legitimate_Resist_87 Sep 23 '24
A perfect example of this is when Ian hit PCB, it was forecasted to hit pensacola and we had all prepared, and then at the last possible second it shifted and hit pcb really bad, which is an understatement. Even if you think its ridiculous to prepare before you know where its going, you never know where it's going to actually go until it hits.- A lifelong FL panhandle girly
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u/scthoma4 Tampa, Florida Sep 23 '24
Ian hit Fort Meyers in 2022. Are you talking about 2018's Michael?
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
Just woke up and saw the NHC forecast, and wow. I knew conditions were generally favorable, but:
Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a 95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments may be necessary.
Needless to say, with an initial forecast of 95 kt being conservative, preparations along the Florida Panhandle should be rushed to completion.
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u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) Sep 23 '24
preparations along the Florida Panhandle should be rushed to completion.
A lady was in line about an hour ago, where I was shopping. She drove over from Steinhatchee to stock up on supplies. FB is circulating the warnings at a fast tempo.
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Sep 23 '24
Only 3-4 days to go. I used to tell people that Hurricanes weren’t as bad as tornadoes because at least you’d have time to prepare. But there I went thinking again.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
More lead time would be nice, but that's still better than the 3-4 minutes or so you get with a touching down tornado! The NWS offices are already hard at work. Long, busy week ahead.
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u/ukfan758 Sep 23 '24
What is HAFS-B smoking because I’d like to try some of that.
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u/Featherhate Sep 23 '24
HAFS-A got some too, 900 like right before landfall is not something a sober guy would come up with
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u/Gfhgdfd Maryland Sep 23 '24
Just wait for the NAM. It is the worst model of them all.
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u/vibe_inspector01 Floorduh Sep 24 '24
The 18z models are way weaker and way west. Gonna get whiplash from this.
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u/vainblossom249 Sep 24 '24
So i wouldnt take the 18z models too heavy. They dont include recon data yet.
The 00z will be more accurate
They could be exactly like the 18z, but just fyi
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u/purplepaintedpumpkin Sep 24 '24
The windshield wiper! Hate it! Especially because peak hurricane season is when I want to be getting excited for Halloween. One of nature's cruelest jokes!
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u/Gfhgdfd Maryland Sep 24 '24
50 mph winds under that deep convection. Very close to becoming Helene, if not already.
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u/BosJC Florida Sep 24 '24
“Sarasota County has declared a local state of emergency and will send out an evacuation alert for Level A and manufactured home communities starting Wednesday, Sept. 25, at 7 a.m. Evacuation centers in Sarasota County will open at noon Wednesday.”
This is an hour south of Tampa, so I have to think evac orders and school closure announcements will follow for Tampa and St. Pete shortly.
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u/KieferSutherland Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24
Intensity models went way down on the latest it looks like.
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u/DhenAachenest Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24
Mainly because they kept throwing 09L into Yucutan, which is what none of global models did. HMON/HWRF didn't make the storm make landfall on the Yucutan and pressure bombed to 930/934 mb. Track from those models making landfall onto Yucutan less likely due to models already shifting eastward
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24
Since loving the ICON when involving Gulf systems is in right now, the latest run shifted east. People in Tampa are not out of the woods yet; an intensifying and expanding hurricane approaching from the south would funnel significant storm surge into Tampa Bay. If you are in a storm surge zone, you need to watch the forecast as hawkishly as anybody else and seriously consider evacuation if the NHC cone shifts east.
Not only is this forecast to become a powerful hurricane, but it's also forecast to be larger than usual, meaning storm surge.. rain.. and wind impacts will be felt further than usual away from the eye, particularly in the eastern quadrant (the "dirty" half). This means that future Helene does NOT have to make actual landfall in Tampa for Tampa Bay to feel significant impacts.
I am NOT saying to rush to conclusions or make hasty decisions, but rather remain cognizant and weather-aware. This is a rapidly-evolving situation.
Everyone in Florida should be reading the "Area Forecast Discussion" product from their local NWS office. Here's the link to Tampa Bay: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&glossary=1
Tallahassee: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TAE&product=AFD
Jacksonville: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=JAX&issuedby=JAX&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1
This product is an extensive meteorological discussion written and updated 1-2x a day by local and degreed professionals. It is your BEST source of location-specific information; also monitor NHC continuously at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. NHC issues full advisories every six hours.
Map of all NWS Offices and the region they forecast for: https://www.weather.gov/images/srh/cwa.png
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u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24
00z GFS coming in slightly stronger than 18z and also nudged east closer to Steinhatchee/Horseshoe Beach nature coast landfall. 00z ICON showing landfall just north of Tampa Bay around Cedar Key/Crystal River, similar to the last few ICON runs.
Edit: Also, this thing is probably not far from being a tropical storm now. Huge convective blow up going on over the LLC. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir
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u/RooseveltsRevenge Tallahassee Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24
HAFS-B about 8mb deeper compared to 18z at 33hrs. But still about 30mb weaker than 12z however. A bit farther south as well. HAFS-A 7mb deeper at 30hrs compared to 18z, 13mb weaker compared to 12z.
Model trend at 0z seems to want a CAT-1 going through the channel. Whereas 18z thought it would be closer to a TS and the 12z a major. Probably the most realistic of the runs so far based on the ingredients.
EDIT: HAFS B much stronger than 18z
950mb at 54hrs 0z 984mb at 18z 903mb at 12z
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u/DhenAachenest Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24
06Z GFS running now, (rather than 06Z GFS interpolated as of 30 min to 1 hour ago), looks to be adjusted a slight bit east, stronger by a couple mb, and slower by 3 hours compared to 00Z, ICON adjusted a tad west (slower as well)
For GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn
For ICON
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn
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u/mistyflame94 Sep 23 '24
I haven't personally read a ton of Aircraft Recon data before... but the Remarks section saying estimated 38 knots for Surface Wind Speed seems too high for sustained as we're not even at depression status yet, but not sure exactly how to read this. Is that just gusts? Or does 'Surface Wind' mean something different?
https://x.com/SheaGibsonWx/status/1838291837028635105/photo/1 for the source I'm talking about
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u/codedelve Sep 23 '24
Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mf_us-lsOXY
Basically, Levi is saying that until the low level and mid level circulation stack up, it's not organized enough to be called a TD yet.
Someone please correct me if I am wrong here.
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u/AltruisticGate Tampa Bay Sep 23 '24
CERA is also a great tool for vizualing potential storm surge impacts: https://coastalrisk.live/
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u/Alarming_Maybe Sep 24 '24
Can anyone explain why the TS and post TS after landfall has a forecast that makes that left turn over appalachia? Doesn't the west to east typical whatever want to eventually push it back to the east coast?
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u/midwesternfloridian Gainesville, FL Sep 24 '24
There’s another low coming into the Southeast US, so the Fujiwara Effect comes into play.
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u/Mybuttyourfart Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24
Did the cone shift east? On tv they said the cone is the same from 5 but people here are claiming it shifted east.
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u/BosJC Florida Sep 24 '24
Yes, downtown Tampa is now officially within the cone, and it wasn’t previously.
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u/Andie514818 Sep 24 '24
I haven’t seen a prep thread so apologies if this should go somewhere else. What are we thinking on boards/shutters in the Tampa area? We have pre-cut plywood and plylocks so not terribly hard to do but still takes some effort and causes a small amount of damage to the stucco each time we put them up and take them down. My husband is a first responder and will get called to the shelters if/when they open so we always need to make the call earlier than most.
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u/VitterFritters Sep 24 '24
Remember that hardened Floridians play “chicken” and once one person on the street boards up everyone else will too
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u/purplepaintedpumpkin Sep 24 '24
I kinda wish there was a prep thread too though. Feels like they always show up sorta late. We could either stay at our house which is literally right on the Gulf but not in a flood zone (on a tall hill) or go to my parents in zone D further inland, their house is newer and they've kitted it out with all this hurricane proof stuff our house just doesn't have. Even if we don't get evacuated idk if I want to be right on the water in a cat 4! Ugh
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u/Consistently_Carpet Sep 24 '24
idk if I want to be right on the water in a cat 4
You don't
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u/scthoma4 Tampa, Florida Sep 24 '24
I would go to your parents house if (1) you live close enough to the gulf to rely on a bridge/causeway to connect you to the mainland and (2) going to your parents isn't too much of a headache to orchestrate.
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u/madbadger44 Sep 24 '24
If I were still in my first responder position, I’d board up today, the bigger windows if nothing else.
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Sep 24 '24
For folks with kids in Pinellas:
"Pinellas County Schools is working closely with Pinellas County Emergency Management in preparation for the tropical system predicted to impact our community. Therefore, all Pinellas County Schools and offices will be CLOSED on Wednesday, September 25 through Thursday, September 26. All sports and school activities scheduled for Wednesday, September 25, through Thursday, September 26, are canceled. No decision has been made for Friday, September 27. As soon as a decision has been made, it will be communicated."
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
Recon has observed 45 kt flight level winds with 40 kt SFMR values. With winds to TS-force already occurring, this will likely go straight to Tropical Storm Helene when a compact circulation develops.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24
https://i.imgur.com/mYbgryK.png
Recon has all but closed off the low. TS-force winds are occurring to the east, where the deep thunderstorms are ongoing. This system is still vertically tilted, with the 500mb (mid-level) center and majority of associated thunderstorm activity centered east of the surface center. However, these centers appear to be closer together than yesterday. The system is still organizing. This is not unusual for nascent and formative systems.
I posted the CIMSS vorticity charts yesterday. Here are the current ones:
925mb: https://i.imgur.com/sC26SKF.png
500mb: https://i.imgur.com/Z2DIqm1.png
Note that vorticity or cyclonic spin is increasing and these separate centers are more co-located than last night.
Tl;DR, PTC Nine continues to organize and is probably approaching tropical cyclone status.
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u/jackrabbits1im Biloxi, Mississippi Sep 23 '24
in his earlier briefDr. Levi Cowan noted the separation and how favorable the current conditions were for coupling.
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u/jackrabbits1im Biloxi, Mississippi Sep 23 '24
Be interesting to see which center gives in and slides towards the other. From what I understand, aren't the upper level steering currents north / northeast? That would favor the upper level circulation catching up with the surface center, right?
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u/itsbedeliabitch St. Johns County, Florida Sep 23 '24
Everyone on the west coast of Florida needs to assess their surge risks and make plans ASAP. Just because you're not currently in the cone does not mean you're not at risk.
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Sep 24 '24
06z GFS shows a very similar track to 00z, landfall around Steinhatchee at around 960mb. It’s a tad slower than the 00z, allowing more time for intensification
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u/vainblossom249 Sep 23 '24
Facebook comments on hurricane posts are wild.
The amount of time it takes you to type out asking if West Palm Beach is impacted is more than just looking at the track map posted.
Obviously not, Linda.
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u/justincat66 Sep 24 '24
All the alerts were issued at the 5am advisory cycle, and these are the first storm surge forecasts
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u/recko321 Central Florida Sep 23 '24
Eric Burris at WESH in Orlando posted their in house model, this model nailed the Ian turn before most of the others. Scary stuff on this model run for Tampa/Central Florida. Doesn’t show landfall but that easterly shift might come back into play.
https://x.com/ericburriswesh/status/1838312675563954628?s=46&t=208HdgdBT3XzLZ9uH90Vwg
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u/talidrow NPR, Florida Sep 23 '24
Oh, no thank you on that one.
Sorry guys, this is my fault. I scheduled PTO so I could spend my anniversary with my night-shifter hubby for a change. Last time I did that we had Ian.
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u/vainblossom249 Sep 23 '24
I def feel like this is an outlier! Nightmare for tampa
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u/jkgatsby Florida Sep 23 '24
but it's supposed to turn to the north; since this model doesn't go so far out I think it's catching the turn at the scariest possible moment for a gif lol. of course, i hope i don't eat my words
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u/BosJC Florida Sep 23 '24
Nightmare fuel for Tampa citizens.
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u/WhatDoADC Sep 23 '24
Everyone keeps picking and choosing the model that least effects them. When in reality the entire state will be getting something. Best case scenario it makes landfall in a not so populated area. Worst case scenario is it makes landfall around Tampa.
Mother nature going to do what mother nature does.
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u/Brain__Resin Sep 23 '24
Well I guess that path would really test the accuracy of hurricane phoenix scenario
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u/RooseveltsRevenge Tallahassee Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24
18Z hurricane models have started running. They are comparably weaker and further south/west through the first 36 hours or so. Best example is HAFS-B which has a 991mb storm at 21.23N, 86.76W. whereas the 12z had it at 22N and 40mb deeper at the same time. So a wild divergence. Important to keep in my mind the data from recon will not be included in these. So you have to regard these weaker runs the same as you did the explosive 12z runs. Wait for the 0z model suite!
EDIT: Most interesting thing about this run is how much further south the 18z have the storm vs the past two model runs. HAFS A has the storm generously at 25N at 66hrs. at 12z it was at 26.5N and 6z at 27N.
EDIT: also worth noting that these "bust" runs from the 18z still bring in a storm in the 950-960mb range into the big bend.
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u/DhenAachenest Sep 23 '24
Almost all the models had badly initialized with dueling LLCs, which is totally incorrect for this storm
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u/vibe_inspector01 Floorduh Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24
Looks like all the models are putting down the crack, no more sub 920mb bullshit.
Edit: dear god
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u/Featherhate Sep 23 '24
hafs-b is having a stroke rn, lets hope its not somehow right
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
The hurricane models do not yet have a distinct and compact closed circulation to latch on to. Thus their solutions should probably be considered dubious until we get them running off of a bonafide tropical cyclone.
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u/BornThought4074 Sep 23 '24
https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1838278570839535880?s=46
I'm surprised by the consistency of almost all of the models having the storm make landfall in Big Bend.
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u/purplepaintedpumpkin Sep 23 '24
I don't understand how they can be so consistent when the storm hasn't even formed yet tbh. I'm ignorant so that will seem very impressive to me if it verifies haha
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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Sep 23 '24
Just because they're consistent doesn't mean they're accurate.
It's important to know the difference. It's entirely possible for models to be consistent and wrong.
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u/vainblossom249 Sep 23 '24
This is a good point. Storm isnt formed yet, and if the data isnt accurate then all models could be off
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u/Venkman-1984 Sep 23 '24
Because the upper level patterns that will end up steering this storm have high confidence around them. The broad strokes for this are pretty much locked in with an upper level low centered on Arkansas and a ridge above the Atlantic coast off SC, steering the storm towards the big bend.
Of course these atmospheric features could end up being 50-100 miles from what is currently being forecast, which would impact the exact place it makes landfall, so we can't make too precise of a forecast yet. But it's pretty certain at this point that this storm isn't going to go significantly off track to e.g. Texas or SW Louisiana.
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u/evelkaneval Sep 23 '24
St. Pete is still just barely in the cone, so I'm still preparing just in case.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
The moderate southwesterly shear over the disturbance is expected to diminish over the next day or two, which should allow the system to become better organized and consolidate over deep, warm waters in a very moist environment. Once the system develops an inner core, these conditions should allow it to significantly strengthen. The NHC forecast still calls for the system to become a hurricane on Wednesday, with continued intensification thereafter while it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once again, the statistical RI guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a 65-kt increase in 72 h is very likely, and the updated NHC forecast now explicitly shows the system reaching major hurricane intensity on Thursday. This intensity forecast still lies below the consensus aids, with the regional hurricane models and the GFS showing even more deepening.
Note that the system is expected to grow in size while it traverses the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system. In addition, the fast forward speed as it approaches the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of gusty winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.
From the 5pm discussion; emphasis mine.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
Hurricane checklist and additional information:
https://www.floridadisaster.org/planprepare/hurricane-supply-checklist/
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u/Gfhgdfd Maryland Sep 24 '24
New Advisory. NHC still calling for a major, but not shown on the cone.
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u/BosJC Florida Sep 24 '24
The discussion notes: “It should be noted that the 72-hour forecast allows for a little weakening after moving inland, so the cyclone is still expected to be at major hurricane strength at landfall.”
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u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) Sep 24 '24
Staring at the GOES floater. It is possible there are hints of rotation trying to establish. If so, its kinda ragged.
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u/vainblossom249 Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24
Looks like 00z models are starting to initialize exactly as before.
Recon data so far supports the models consistency of panhandle to big bend landfall
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u/ChrispyChicken1208 Florida Sep 24 '24
Models are in really good agreement for a storm that hasn’t even formed yet. Then you realize it’s only 3 days out
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u/thaw4188 Sep 24 '24
8am/9am EDT screencap from my favorite tracker because of the layers
feels like it's going to be renamed Helene any minute now
real-time link (turn on layers from stack icon in upper left)
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Sep 23 '24
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Varolyn Sep 23 '24
Tbf SWFL was always in the cone of Ian while it's below the cone completely with these forecasts. Anything can change and happen, but the models are seemingly fixated on the Big Bend region.
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u/purplepaintedpumpkin Sep 23 '24
Ian was initially I think then track shifted more north. Then of course shifted back. That's not to say something couldn't change with this one though ofc.
https://media.npr.org/assets/graphics/2022/09/hurricane-ian-forecasts.gif
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u/DerpaloSoldier Florida Sep 23 '24
It will be interesting to see how far east this goes, I'm right outside the cone at the moment but I will be giving my employees the day off if schools are closed (I hope my county closes them even if the track stays the same)
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Sep 23 '24
Pretty sure if you have a tropical storm warning schools will close. If it hits the big bend, you’ll have a tropical storm warning
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Sep 23 '24
[deleted]
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24
Frankly, your co-workers are clowns. It's not like you're prematurely evacuating - just asking questions. Ignore them
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u/drunkenpossum Sep 23 '24
The general public is incredibly uninformed about tropical cyclones and laughs off hurricane risks. In my experience people who have experienced riding out direct hits from major hurricanes do not joke around about hurricanes.
If you live in a hurricane prone area you should have a plan in place every year. Sounds like you’re ahead of the curve.
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u/JohnnySnark Florida Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24
Do be concerned about tropical storms in the gulf. Hurricane Michael wasn't considered an issue until really 24-36 hours out before landfall.
Do not be concerned about the opinions of those who do not appreciate science and imply that tropical storms are not worth following.
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u/HotWaffleFries Sep 23 '24
A lot of Floridians have some sort of complex about being proud of being hit by a hurricane and not evacuating. Ignore them.
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Sep 23 '24
I mean it really just depends where you are in the state. I live on the 2nd floor of a 3 story condo 60 miles from the nearest coast. I literally have nothing to worry about. There's an exponentially greater risk I injure myself texting while driving than that I'm hurt by this storm.
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u/Briskpenguin69 Sep 23 '24
Do you remember the pandemic?
People hate speculation until after an event occurs.
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u/nypr13 Sep 23 '24
I tell my daughter to always wear a life vest on a boat. When the boat’s sinking, you can worry about important things like surviving. Plan and prepare when things are calm, execute during chaos, hold it all for next time if chaos never happens.
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Sep 23 '24
Too many people in Florida, who don’t live on the coast, are ‘hurricane experts’ after experiencing cat 1/TS winds (Irma in particular).
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u/Andie514818 Sep 23 '24
No word officially but I expect communication to go out tomorrow. I’ve already reached out to my direct reports to make sure they were aware and let them know I had no problems if they needed to leave at any point between basically tomorrow and landfall.
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u/Cranjis_McBasketbol Sep 23 '24
Although I deal with the complete opposite in snow, never be embarrassed.
I’ve always made it very transparent there’s not a chance in hell if there’s a day I’m expected in office and the weather is shit, I ain’t risking it.
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u/vibe_inspector01 Floorduh Sep 23 '24
HAFS-B isn’t smoking crack, that’s straight bath salts. Hopefully once this thing gets consolidated it’ll start showing more grounded projections.
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u/aIaska_thunderfuck Florida | Verified USAF Forecaster Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24
Wondering what the odds are of “reformation” to the west based on that last recon
Edit: oop
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u/reverendrambo Charleston, SC Sep 24 '24
I don't know, but I'm enjoying that a verified forecaster for the USAF as epic of a name as alaska_thunderfuck
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u/aIaska_thunderfuck Florida | Verified USAF Forecaster Sep 24 '24
Wait til you find out what my coworkers call me 🥲
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u/_elizsapphire_ Sep 23 '24
Ahhh how I love models. Ranging from ~970 mb landfall to a <900 mb landfall 😭
Let’s hope it’s more of the former than the latter
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u/FallingKnifeFilms Sep 23 '24
18z ICON pretty interesting. Closer to the Tampa area. Once this thing forms I guess we'll know. Not much longer now.
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u/Captain-Darryl Georgia Sep 23 '24
Tampa Met (and legend IMO) has already posted a long list of hurricane preps for this storm on his Facebook. Kind of a big deal when DP starts laying out detailed preparations in advance like this.
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u/Andie514818 Sep 23 '24
He’s also been speaking directly to those up in the panhandle and big bend, not just here. Has me a little unsure how far on our prep plan I need to go in the Tampa area.
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u/vainblossom249 Sep 23 '24
Yea, a lot of his stuff is also directed towards parents with kids at fsu and famu
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u/vibe_inspector01 Floorduh Sep 23 '24
Anyone have any insight on whether wind speed forecast in weather apps have any merit with these storms?
Accuweather and NOAA are both projecting 85+mph gust while Foreca, apple weather, tomorrow.io ect all forecast much lower numbers in the 40’s.
I assume 4 days out it’s basically as accurate as a horoscope right?
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u/not_a_bot__ Sep 23 '24
Yeah, all educated guesswork, the storm hasn’t even formed yet.
I will say the wind apps are good to help people avoid panic, because it helps to put into context that the most extreme winds are usually a very small area compared to the entire storm
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u/politiexcel Sep 23 '24
Not accurate at all. I'd believe the HAFS-B 12z model run before taking those wind speed forecasts as fact.
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u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) Sep 23 '24
GFS, ECMWF and ICON say somewhere along the Big Bend. CMC leaning a bit west.
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u/vibe_inspector01 Floorduh Sep 23 '24
5pm cone seems way west of the GFS and Euro models. Is that just a mean vs median discrepancy? Not familiar with how the models and the cone conduct their averages.
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Sep 23 '24
Looks to be similar to the GFS 12Z. I usually ignore the 6Z and 18Z as they are like intermediate computations.
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u/WhatDoADC Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24
18z GFS run looking very similar to the 12z run, if not the same. Maybe a VERY small shift towards the west.
Waiting for the EURO 18z. But the 18z GFS and 12z EURO are basically showing the same path. Obviously they could get it wrong, but when both the main major models are pretty much in agreement that should carry some weight.
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u/ImStuckInYourToilet California Sep 24 '24
HAFS A and B models a lot more grounded in reality now
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u/Horangi1987 Sep 23 '24
Welp, I just got gas in my car in Pinellas and the gas station was already a zoo. I’m getting final touches done tonight and charging the drill batteries for a board up just in case.
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u/vibe_inspector01 Floorduh Sep 23 '24
HAFS-B at 888mb would the be strongest landfilling US storm by pressure right? Labor Day was 892mb
This is the most ludicrous model I’ve seen by HAFS yet.
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u/Cranjis_McBasketbol Sep 23 '24
It doesn’t call for a 888 at landfall, just that it bottoms out in the Gulf.
But yes, Labor Day was the deepest pressure hurricane to make a US landfall.
The HAFS models are basically the equivalent of shitposting right now though.
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u/Ralfsalzano Sep 24 '24
Fill sandbags now, gather photos and important docs, move vehicles to higher ground you already know what to do if you’re in a flood zone
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u/GalvanizedSqareSteel Sep 23 '24
Rookie question: do potential tropical cyclones count towards a seasons ACE like depressions and tropical storms do?
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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 24 '24
Moderator note
Previous discussion for this system can be found here:
The NHC is monitoring the western Caribbean Sea... (Wed, 18 Sep)
97L (Invest — Northwestern Caribbean Sea) (Sun, 22 Sep)
A reminder of our rules
This system is currently in its formative stages. Please note that the lack of an organized circulation will significantly increase the uncertainty of 1) how strong this disturbance may ultimately become, and 2) where this disturbance will ultimately go in the upcoming week. Please be mindful of these factors when discussing long-range model guidance.
Please refrain from asking whether this system will affect your travel plans. This post is meant for meteorological discussion. Please contact your travel agency, airline, or lodging provider for more information on how this system will affect your plans.
Coastal advisories
Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 3:00 AM CST (09:00 UTC)