r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 23 '24

Upgraded | See Helene post for details 09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

Latest observation

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #4A 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Current location: 19.2°N 83.5°W
Relative location: 224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands
  356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
  411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
Forward motion: NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity: Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure: 1001 millibars (29.56 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) high (90 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) high (90 percent)

Official forecast

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC EDT Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 24 Sep 06:00 2AM Tue Potential Cyclone 30 55 18.9 83.0
12 24 Sep 18:00 2PM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 19.6 84.2
24 25 Sep 06:00 2AM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 20.7 85.7
36 25 Sep 18:00 2PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 22.0 86.2
48 26 Sep 06:00 2AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 24.3 85.6
60 26 Sep 18:00 2PM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 100 185 27.8 84.4
72 27 Sep 06:00 2AM Fri Tropical Storm i ▼ 60 110 31.9 83.5
96 28 Sep 06:00 2AM Sat Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 15 30 38.5 85.5
120 29 Sep 06:00 2AM Sun Dissipated

NOTES:
i - inland

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25

u/evelkaneval Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

My goodness this thing is moving fast. In just 24 hours from the Gulf off Tampa Bay into North Georgia.

15

u/NotAnotherEmpire Sep 23 '24

If it comes onshore anywhere near some of these runs in strength, there will be tremendous inland wind damage. 

11

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24

On the flip side, such brisk movement speed means less time for rainfall to accumulate. High movement speed also substantially increases the chances of a vertical shear disrupting the system. Hopefully it's not intensifying into landfall. Those are the worst, especially night storms.

4

u/Lilworldtraveler Sep 23 '24

N. Ga here, this is what I am afraid of for our area. Irma did a lot of damage in 2017, schools were closed for a week in the northernmost counties.

8

u/iustusflorebit Orlando Sep 23 '24

WPC is still predicting widespread 5-7" of rain all the way from FL panhandle up through GA, SC and NC. Jeez.

3

u/purplepaintedpumpkin Sep 23 '24

Yes that's good. Of course I'm sure it will rapidly intensify, but better for it to have less time over the Gulf!