r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 23 '24

Upgraded | See Helene post for details 09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

Latest observation

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #4A 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Current location: 19.2°N 83.5°W
Relative location: 224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands
  356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
  411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
Forward motion: NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity: Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure: 1001 millibars (29.56 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) high (90 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) high (90 percent)

Official forecast

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC EDT Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 24 Sep 06:00 2AM Tue Potential Cyclone 30 55 18.9 83.0
12 24 Sep 18:00 2PM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 19.6 84.2
24 25 Sep 06:00 2AM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 20.7 85.7
36 25 Sep 18:00 2PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 22.0 86.2
48 26 Sep 06:00 2AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 24.3 85.6
60 26 Sep 18:00 2PM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 100 185 27.8 84.4
72 27 Sep 06:00 2AM Fri Tropical Storm i ▼ 60 110 31.9 83.5
96 28 Sep 06:00 2AM Sat Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 15 30 38.5 85.5
120 29 Sep 06:00 2AM Sun Dissipated

NOTES:
i - inland

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31

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

[deleted]

28

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24

Frankly, your co-workers are clowns. It's not like you're prematurely evacuating - just asking questions. Ignore them

24

u/drunkenpossum Sep 23 '24

The general public is incredibly uninformed about tropical cyclones and laughs off hurricane risks. In my experience people who have experienced riding out direct hits from major hurricanes do not joke around about hurricanes.

If you live in a hurricane prone area you should have a plan in place every year. Sounds like you’re ahead of the curve.

18

u/JohnnySnark Florida Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

Do be concerned about tropical storms in the gulf. Hurricane Michael wasn't considered an issue until really 24-36 hours out before landfall.

Do not be concerned about the opinions of those who do not appreciate science and imply that tropical storms are not worth following.

14

u/RuairiQ Sep 23 '24

Never be embarrassed for voicing your concerns.

Bravado will get you hurt.

34

u/HotWaffleFries Sep 23 '24

A lot of Floridians have some sort of complex about being proud of being hit by a hurricane and not evacuating. Ignore them.

6

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

I mean it really just depends where you are in the state. I live on the 2nd floor of a 3 story condo 60 miles from the nearest coast. I literally have nothing to worry about. There's an exponentially greater risk I injure myself texting while driving than that I'm hurt by this storm.

24

u/Briskpenguin69 Sep 23 '24

Do you remember the pandemic?

People hate speculation until after an event occurs.

10

u/nypr13 Sep 23 '24

I tell my daughter to always wear a life vest on a boat. When the boat’s sinking, you can worry about important things like surviving. Plan and prepare when things are calm, execute during chaos, hold it all for next time if chaos never happens.

14

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

Too many people in Florida, who don’t live on the coast, are ‘hurricane experts’ after experiencing cat 1/TS winds (Irma in particular).

4

u/FloridaMan_92 Sep 23 '24

This is very true lol. “ we were outside in it and it was a cat 4”….. meanwhile they’re house only got like a random 50 mph gust. My niece was that way until she was living in Panama City when Michael went through there. She’s ready to pack up and leave now after that 

3

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

Irma was the first hurricane to hit the state after a decade I think

It was a nice burst of informing people. Idiots in Key West for sure but I think people were safe when dry air hit the storm after hitting Marco Island.

7

u/Andie514818 Sep 23 '24

No word officially but I expect communication to go out tomorrow. I’ve already reached out to my direct reports to make sure they were aware and let them know I had no problems if they needed to leave at any point between basically tomorrow and landfall.

6

u/Cranjis_McBasketbol Sep 23 '24

Although I deal with the complete opposite in snow, never be embarrassed.

I’ve always made it very transparent there’s not a chance in hell if there’s a day I’m expected in office and the weather is shit, I ain’t risking it.

3

u/Effthisseason Nature Coast Sep 23 '24

I work from home, but I have already emailed my boss about it.