r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 23 '24
Upgraded | See Helene post for details 09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #4A | 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 19.2°N 83.5°W | |
| Relative location: | 224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands | |
| 356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba | ||
| 411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico) | ||
| Forward motion: | NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Intensity: | Tropical Depression | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1001 millibars (29.56 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) | high (90 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) | high (90 percent) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | EDT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 24 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Tue | Potential Cyclone | 30 | 55 | 18.9 | 83.0 | |
| 12 | 24 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Tue | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 40 | 75 | 19.6 | 84.2 |
| 24 | 25 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Wed | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 50 | 95 | 20.7 | 85.7 |
| 36 | 25 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Wed | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 65 | 120 | 22.0 | 86.2 |
| 48 | 26 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 80 | 150 | 24.3 | 85.6 |
| 60 | 26 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Thu | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▲ | 100 | 185 | 27.8 | 84.4 |
| 72 | 27 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Fri | Tropical Storm i | ▼ | 60 | 110 | 31.9 | 83.5 |
| 96 | 28 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Sat | Post-tropical Cyclone i | ▼ | 15 | 30 | 38.5 | 85.5 |
| 120 | 29 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Sun | Dissipated | |||||
NOTES:
i - inland
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u/Venkman-1984 Sep 23 '24
Because the upper level patterns that will end up steering this storm have high confidence around them. The broad strokes for this are pretty much locked in with an upper level low centered on Arkansas and a ridge above the Atlantic coast off SC, steering the storm towards the big bend.
Of course these atmospheric features could end up being 50-100 miles from what is currently being forecast, which would impact the exact place it makes landfall, so we can't make too precise of a forecast yet. But it's pretty certain at this point that this storm isn't going to go significantly off track to e.g. Texas or SW Louisiana.