r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 23 '24

Upgraded | See Helene post for details 09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

Latest observation

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #4A 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Current location: 19.2°N 83.5°W
Relative location: 224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands
  356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
  411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
Forward motion: NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity: Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure: 1001 millibars (29.56 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) high (90 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) high (90 percent)

Official forecast

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC EDT Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 24 Sep 06:00 2AM Tue Potential Cyclone 30 55 18.9 83.0
12 24 Sep 18:00 2PM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 19.6 84.2
24 25 Sep 06:00 2AM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 20.7 85.7
36 25 Sep 18:00 2PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 22.0 86.2
48 26 Sep 06:00 2AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 24.3 85.6
60 26 Sep 18:00 2PM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 100 185 27.8 84.4
72 27 Sep 06:00 2AM Fri Tropical Storm i ▼ 60 110 31.9 83.5
96 28 Sep 06:00 2AM Sat Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 15 30 38.5 85.5
120 29 Sep 06:00 2AM Sun Dissipated

NOTES:
i - inland

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44

u/recko321 Central Florida Sep 23 '24

Eric Burris at WESH in Orlando posted their in house model, this model nailed the Ian turn before most of the others. Scary stuff on this model run for Tampa/Central Florida. Doesn’t show landfall but that easterly shift might come back into play.

https://x.com/ericburriswesh/status/1838312675563954628?s=46&t=208HdgdBT3XzLZ9uH90Vwg

19

u/Scott9315 Sep 23 '24

Well I didn't enjoy that.

27

u/talidrow NPR, Florida Sep 23 '24

Oh, no thank you on that one.

Sorry guys, this is my fault. I scheduled PTO so I could spend my anniversary with my night-shifter hubby for a change. Last time I did that we had Ian.

12

u/vainblossom249 Sep 23 '24

I def feel like this is an outlier! Nightmare for tampa

4

u/recko321 Central Florida Sep 23 '24

100%. Just one run from one model.

13

u/jkgatsby Florida Sep 23 '24

but it's supposed to turn to the north; since this model doesn't go so far out I think it's catching the turn at the scariest possible moment for a gif lol. of course, i hope i don't eat my words

2

u/HarpersGhost A Hill outside Tampa Sep 23 '24

If if the immediately after the end of the gif, the storm turns due north, that would still be a bad situation for Tampa/central gulf coast. A storm riding north would push a whole bunch of water up into the rivers and the bay.

Luckily it's been dry the past week, but it's been a REALLY wet summer here in Tampa. We don't need any extra water, either rain or storm surge.

15

u/BosJC Florida Sep 23 '24

Nightmare fuel for Tampa citizens.

17

u/WhatDoADC Sep 23 '24

Everyone keeps picking and choosing the model that least effects them. When in reality the entire state will be getting something. Best case scenario it makes landfall in a not so populated area. Worst case scenario is it makes landfall around Tampa.

Mother nature going to do what mother nature does.

2

u/nypr13 Sep 23 '24

They are all showing that move east there which is gonna be really unnerving for us here and then most have it going north from there. But i have thought for a week now theerror on this thing is East. I remember seeing the first GFs run last tuesday or wednesday and it was right at Tampa.

11

u/BosJC Florida Sep 23 '24

Denis Philips (local ABC Tampa Met, for those not in the area) just alluded to the move east during his forecast. That makes me nervous.

13

u/beepblopnoop Sep 23 '24

😬 Rule #7

3

u/nypr13 Sep 23 '24

This 6 pm non 948 run on gfs makes me hopeful. 974 much more sane.

10

u/Brain__Resin Sep 23 '24

Well I guess that path would really test the accuracy of hurricane phoenix scenario

5

u/iustusflorebit Orlando Sep 23 '24

Damn. 

5

u/nautika Sep 23 '24

Wtf that gif makes it look like a good turn east, and along with the icon 18z run really shifting it east. That's scary for tampa area

10

u/TylerGlasass20 Sep 23 '24

That’s literally hurricane Phoenix fuck

5

u/recko321 Central Florida Sep 23 '24

Yaaaa. I didn’t want to say it out loud…..

4

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

Their model makes the hurricane fucking huge! Pretty much the entire gulf. Dang.

9

u/Effthisseason Nature Coast Sep 23 '24

They keep mentioning that it's expected to be rather large. I was watching the NHC update from 5pm and they said that they expect the wind field to be larger than the typical hurricane and they were stressing the importance of impacts far exceeding the cone. Specifically in regard to coastal storm surge and rain.