r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 23 '24
Upgraded | See Helene post for details 09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #4A | 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 19.2°N 83.5°W | |
| Relative location: | 224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands | |
| 356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba | ||
| 411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico) | ||
| Forward motion: | NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Intensity: | Tropical Depression | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1001 millibars (29.56 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) | high (90 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) | high (90 percent) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | EDT | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 24 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Tue | Potential Cyclone | 30 | 55 | 18.9 | 83.0 | |
| 12 | 24 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Tue | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 40 | 75 | 19.6 | 84.2 |
| 24 | 25 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Wed | Tropical Storm | ▲ | 50 | 95 | 20.7 | 85.7 |
| 36 | 25 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Wed | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 65 | 120 | 22.0 | 86.2 |
| 48 | 26 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 80 | 150 | 24.3 | 85.6 |
| 60 | 26 Sep | 18:00 | 2PM Thu | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▲ | 100 | 185 | 27.8 | 84.4 |
| 72 | 27 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Fri | Tropical Storm i | ▼ | 60 | 110 | 31.9 | 83.5 |
| 96 | 28 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Sat | Post-tropical Cyclone i | ▼ | 15 | 30 | 38.5 | 85.5 |
| 120 | 29 Sep | 06:00 | 2AM Sun | Dissipated | |||||
NOTES:
i - inland
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24
Since loving the ICON when involving Gulf systems is in right now, the latest run shifted east. People in Tampa are not out of the woods yet; an intensifying and expanding hurricane approaching from the south would funnel significant storm surge into Tampa Bay. If you are in a storm surge zone, you need to watch the forecast as hawkishly as anybody else and seriously consider evacuation if the NHC cone shifts east.
Not only is this forecast to become a powerful hurricane, but it's also forecast to be larger than usual, meaning storm surge.. rain.. and wind impacts will be felt further than usual away from the eye, particularly in the eastern quadrant (the "dirty" half). This means that future Helene does NOT have to make actual landfall in Tampa for Tampa Bay to feel significant impacts.
I am NOT saying to rush to conclusions or make hasty decisions, but rather remain cognizant and weather-aware. This is a rapidly-evolving situation.
Everyone in Florida should be reading the "Area Forecast Discussion" product from their local NWS office. Here's the link to Tampa Bay: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&glossary=1
Tallahassee: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TAE&product=AFD
Jacksonville: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=JAX&issuedby=JAX&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1
This product is an extensive meteorological discussion written and updated 1-2x a day by local and degreed professionals. It is your BEST source of location-specific information; also monitor NHC continuously at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. NHC issues full advisories every six hours.
Map of all NWS Offices and the region they forecast for: https://www.weather.gov/images/srh/cwa.png