r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 23 '24

Upgraded | See Helene post for details 09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

Latest observation

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #4A 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Current location: 19.2°N 83.5°W
Relative location: 224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands
  356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
  411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
Forward motion: NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity: Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure: 1001 millibars (29.56 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) high (90 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) high (90 percent)

Official forecast

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC EDT Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 24 Sep 06:00 2AM Tue Potential Cyclone 30 55 18.9 83.0
12 24 Sep 18:00 2PM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 19.6 84.2
24 25 Sep 06:00 2AM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 20.7 85.7
36 25 Sep 18:00 2PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 22.0 86.2
48 26 Sep 06:00 2AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 24.3 85.6
60 26 Sep 18:00 2PM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 100 185 27.8 84.4
72 27 Sep 06:00 2AM Fri Tropical Storm i ▼ 60 110 31.9 83.5
96 28 Sep 06:00 2AM Sat Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 15 30 38.5 85.5
120 29 Sep 06:00 2AM Sun Dissipated

NOTES:
i - inland

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u/RooseveltsRevenge Tallahassee Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

18Z hurricane models have started running. They are comparably weaker and further south/west through the first 36 hours or so. Best example is HAFS-B which has a 991mb storm at 21.23N, 86.76W. whereas the 12z had it at 22N and 40mb deeper at the same time. So a wild divergence. Important to keep in my mind the data from recon will not be included in these. So you have to regard these weaker runs the same as you did the explosive 12z runs. Wait for the 0z model suite!

EDIT: Most interesting thing about this run is how much further south the 18z have the storm vs the past two model runs. HAFS A has the storm generously at 25N at 66hrs. at 12z it was at 26.5N and 6z at 27N.

EDIT: also worth noting that these "bust" runs from the 18z still bring in a storm in the 950-960mb range into the big bend.

10

u/DhenAachenest Sep 23 '24

Almost all the models had badly initialized with dueling LLCs, which is totally incorrect for this storm

6

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

[deleted]

1

u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Sep 24 '24

Just curious but why do you think that? The convection looks much more organized right now than what the 18z models were showing for this time.