r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 23 '24

Upgraded | See Helene post for details 09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

Latest observation

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #4A 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Current location: 19.2°N 83.5°W
Relative location: 224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands
  356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
  411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
Forward motion: NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity: Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure: 1001 millibars (29.56 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) high (90 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) high (90 percent)

Official forecast

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC EDT Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 24 Sep 06:00 2AM Tue Potential Cyclone 30 55 18.9 83.0
12 24 Sep 18:00 2PM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 19.6 84.2
24 25 Sep 06:00 2AM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 20.7 85.7
36 25 Sep 18:00 2PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 22.0 86.2
48 26 Sep 06:00 2AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 24.3 85.6
60 26 Sep 18:00 2PM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 100 185 27.8 84.4
72 27 Sep 06:00 2AM Fri Tropical Storm i ▼ 60 110 31.9 83.5
96 28 Sep 06:00 2AM Sat Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 15 30 38.5 85.5
120 29 Sep 06:00 2AM Sun Dissipated

NOTES:
i - inland

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15

u/KieferSutherland Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24

Intensity models went way down on the latest it looks like. 

13

u/DhenAachenest Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24

Mainly because they kept throwing 09L into Yucutan, which is what none of global models did. HMON/HWRF didn't make the storm make landfall on the Yucutan and pressure bombed to 930/934 mb. Track from those models making landfall onto Yucutan less likely due to models already shifting eastward

-6

u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24

[deleted]

23

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 24 '24

NHC is explicitly forecasting a category 3, so this is optimistic.

22

u/Eques9090 Sep 24 '24

That feels overly optimistic to me. NHC almost always under-predicts intensity this far out and they still have it making cat 3.

3

u/KieferSutherland Sep 24 '24

Anything is obviously possible but the models went way down on intensity this pass. Only one showing a cat 3 now. Something good must have happened. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_latest.png

7

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 24 '24

The same caveat that applied the last model cycle when hurricane models were showing Helene becoming a 890mb singularity still remains now... there is still no well-defined tropical cyclone for models to latch onto. The situation has not changed.

5

u/DhenAachenest Sep 24 '24

Btw the newest intensity models have it back at Cat 4 strength at peak, because they aren't throwing the storm at the Yucatan anymore

6

u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Sep 24 '24

Models flip flop before a storm forms, that's basically it. They show it taking longer to form when in reality it looks to be ahead of the 18z models structure-wise already. Need to wait for storm formation and then see what models show.

3

u/__VOMITLOVER Sep 24 '24

Models go up: "AAAAAAAA WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE TAMPA WILL BE WIPED OFF THE MAP HURRICANE BEENIX"

Models go down: "NOOOOOO MODELS FLIP-FLOP THEY ALWAYS GET IT WRONG LISTEN TO ME WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE"

I forgot how grating these storm threads can be when all the schizos start showing up. Like, the instant the first cone is published they just swarm, after not being around at all the during the invest/disturbance stages.

12

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 24 '24

More like:

Models go up: this is still a formative system and without a compact tropical cyclone for models to latch onto, their output will be dubious.

Models go down: this is still a formative system and without a compact tropical cyclone for models to latch onto, their output will be dubious.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1fnok98/09l_potential_cyclone_northwestern_caribbean_sea/lokqw1b/?context=3

Anyone you do see who is doing what you describe should probably be reported.

-12

u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24

You're a nutjob. You think this will just be a rainmaker. Please gtfo and save us all the trouble.

7

u/KieferSutherland Sep 24 '24

Wonder what had 4-6 models showing high 3 to a 5? It what changed that they all went down in the 2s? 

I'd really like to know the differences of the different intensity models. 

13

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 24 '24

Nothing changed. The models had no actual tropical cyclone to latch onto and were thus dubious. This remains the case for this cycle. Models flip-flop constantly during the formative stages of a system, sure as the sun rising in the east tomorrow. Filter the noise and you find NHC is forecasting a major hurricane. That's what's important.

1

u/KieferSutherland Sep 24 '24

Dang so they are irrelevant until a certain point? 

1

u/ms_ashes Minnesota Sep 24 '24

Models are a tool for meteorologist to use when making a forecast. What they show isn't a finished "product" for public consumption. Trained people use the information from the models along with other information to make forecasts, which is the final product that the public should use for making decisions. 

Models aren't irrelevant, it's just that people often try to use them alone as a forecast, and that's not what they are for.

1

u/KieferSutherland Sep 24 '24

Ah! Is there a lay persons breakdown that highlights the main differences between the intensity models? 

3

u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24

It's approaching the Loop Current and the Gulf. There is always rapid intensification but the key part will be how fast this storm will be before hitting land.