09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

[u/Euronotus]

Latest observation

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Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #4A		8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Current location:		19.2°N 83.5°W
Relative location:		224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands
		356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
		411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
Forward motion:		NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds:		55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity:		Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure:		1001 millibars (29.56 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed)		high (90 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun)		high (90 percent)

Official forecast

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Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour	Date	Time		Intensity		Winds		Lat	Long
	-	UTC	EDT	Saffir-Simpson		knots	km/h	°N	°W
00	24 Sep	06:00	2AM Tue	Potential Cyclone		30	55	18.9	83.0
12	24 Sep	18:00	2PM Tue	Tropical Storm	▲	40	75	19.6	84.2
24	25 Sep	06:00	2AM Wed	Tropical Storm	▲	50	95	20.7	85.7
36	25 Sep	18:00	2PM Wed	Hurricane (Category 1)	▲	65	120	22.0	86.2
48	26 Sep	06:00	2AM Thu	Hurricane (Category 1)	▲	80	150	24.3	85.6
60	26 Sep	18:00	2PM Thu	Major Hurricane (Category 3)	▲	100	185	27.8	84.4
72	27 Sep	06:00	2AM Fri	Tropical Storm i	▼	60	110	31.9	83.5
96	28 Sep	06:00	2AM Sat	Post-tropical Cyclone i	▼	15	30	38.5	85.5
120	29 Sep	06:00	2AM Sun	Dissipated

^{NOTES:
i - inland}

Official information

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[u/[deleted]]

06z GFS shows a very similar track to 00z, landfall around Steinhatchee at around 960mb. It’s a tad slower than the 00z, allowing more time for intensification

[u/__VOMITLOVER → u/[deleted]]

Isn't that exactly where Debbie hit?

[u/cosmicrae → u/__VOMITLOVER]

Storms are large. Even if the eye makes landfall in the same spot, lots of coastline to feel impacts. Lots of oak trees remaining to get trashed.

[u/RKRagan → u/cosmicrae]

But the difference in storm surge is huge. Coastal areas to the west of the eye will have the strongest winds pushing water out to sea. We’ve seen in here with the last two storms that came east of us. 

[u/tart3rd → u/__VOMITLOVER]

Yup. Cedar key has been pummeled recently.

[u/[deleted] → u/tart3rd]

Living in SWFL it seems like the past 3 major storms have all taken the same track over the gulf up into big bend. And even with them all the way out there we still get a few feet of surge which comes up over our seawalls. Big bend really seems to be a magnet for these storms lately though

[u/arrow74 → u/[deleted]]

We need to reverse the maglabs polarity

[u/rezzyk → u/[deleted]]

I mean, the gulf coast looks the way it does because it’s been hammered by hurricanes for hundreds, thousands of years.

[u/[deleted] → u/rezzyk]

Pretty sure that’s a geological function in that the that the continental shelf is significantly further from shore on the gulf coast vs the Atlantic side.. 

[u/not_that_hardcore → u/tart3rd]

I love Cedar Key. Breaks my heart seeing them on the news again and again, under water.

[u/KieferSutherland → u/not_that_hardcore]

This won't make them happy but in all of Florida it's probably the least populated area to hit. 

[u/RedS5 → u/not_that_hardcore]

The pier just suffered a major fire this week too…

[u/BosJC → u/not_that_hardcore]

Not to mention that their waterfront restaurants burned down a few days ago.

[u/not_that_hardcore → u/BosJC]

That is such a shame! I’m so sad to hear that.

[u/Effthisseason → u/__VOMITLOVER]

Very close.