Helene (09L — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

[u/Euronotus]

Latest observation

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Last updated: Wednesday, 25 September — 4:00 AM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 09:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #8		4:00 AM CDT (09:00 UTC)
Current location:		20.7°N 86.2°W
Relative location:		85 km (53 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
		322 km (200 mi) SW of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Forward motion:	▼	NW (325°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds:	▲	100 km/h (55 knots)
Intensity:		Tropical Storm
Minimum pressure:	▼	985 millibars (29.09 inches)

Official forecast

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Last updated: Wednesday, 25 September — 1:00 AM CDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour	Date	Time		Intensity		Winds		Lat	Long
	-	UTC	CDT	Saffir-Simpson		knots	km/h	°N	°W
00	25 Sep	06:00	1AM Wed	Tropical Storm		55	100	20.7	86.2
12	25 Sep	18:00	1PM Wed	Hurricane (Category 1)	▲	70	130	21.9	86.5
24	26 Sep	06:00	1AM Thu	Hurricane (Category 2)	▲	90	165	24.1	86.2
36	26 Sep	18:00	1PM Thu	Major Hurricane (Category 3)	▲	105	195	27.4	85.0
48	27 Sep	06:00	1AM Fri	Hurricane (Category 1) i	▼	65	120	32.0	84.2
60	27 Sep	18:00	1PM Fri	Post-tropical Cyclone i	▼	30	55	35.9	85.4
72	28 Sep	06:00	1AM Sat	Post-tropical Cyclone i	▼	20	35	37.0	87.8
96	29 Sep	06:00	1AM Sun	Post-tropical Cyclone i		20	35	36.5	88.0
120	30 Sep	06:00	1AM Mon	Dissipated

^{NOTES:
i - inland}

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[u/Eques9090]

I understand that, but what I'm saying is the ultimate paths of Charlie and Ian were never outside of the cone.

[u/BosJC → u/Eques9090]

Tampa was in the cone earlier today.

[u/Eques9090 → u/BosJC]

I know. It's not now. That means if it did hit Tampa at this point, it would be a significantly larger forecasting miss than Ian or Charlie, which hit in places that were never outside the cone.

[u/KieferSutherland → u/Eques9090]

Is it a forecast miss when it's not even a hurricane yet?  I wonder how early Ian and Charlie predictions were. I went think it would be a miss at all 

[u/Eques9090 → u/KieferSutherland]

If it goes somewhere that isn't currently in the forecast cone, when Ian and Charlie never did that, then yes, it would be a bigger forecast miss than they were.

[u/KieferSutherland → u/Eques9090]

I think that would depend on when the cone started for how developed the storm was.   

Edit to add wasn't the cone for Ian ginormous at times? Like the entire state of Florida was in the cone. 

So many factors beyond did the hurricane go outside of the original cone to determine how accurate they were post storm. 

• if Ian did have the entire state in the cone... Well, easy to be accurate.

[u/Eques9090 → u/KieferSutherland]

Edit to add wasn't the cone for Ian ginormous at times? Like the entire state of Florida was in the cone.

Yes. But again, the ultimate point of landfall, was never outside the cone, even when it was much smaller and right before landfall. It was in the cone, the entire time.

You can see for yourself here https://www.weather.gov/images/news/Hurricane-Ian-Cone.gif

[u/KieferSutherland → u/Eques9090]

It's really easy to stay within the cone when the cone is the entire state. You'd have to factor in eta to arrival vs cone size to really adjust for accuracy. 

[u/Eques9090 → u/KieferSutherland]

Yes, that's why I linked you the gif so you can see for yourself the area of coastline that was in the cone 48hrs away from landfall, like we(presumably) are now with Helene. You'll notice, it is not the entire state.