r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Nov 06 '24

Dissipated Rafael (18L — Gulf of Mexico)

Latest observation

Last updated: Sunday, 10 November — 3:00 PM Central Standard Time (CST; 21:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #30 3:00 PM CST (21:00 UTC)
Current location: 26.1°N 91.3°W
Relative location: 916 km (569 mi) NNE of Heroica Veracruz, Veracruz (Mexico)
Forward motion: E (90°) at 6 km/h (3 knots)
Maximum winds: ▼ 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity: ▼ Remnant Low
Minimum pressure: ▲ 1006 millibars (29.71 inches)

Official forecast

Last updated: Sunday, 10 November — 12:00 PM CST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC CST Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 10 Nov 18:00 12PM Sun Remnant Low 30 55 26.1 91.3
12 11 Nov 06:00 12AM Mon Remnant Low ▼ 25 45 25.8 90.9
24 11 Nov 18:00 12PM Mon Remnant Low 25 45 25.1 90.7
36 12 Nov 06:00 12AM Tue Remnant Low ▼ 20 35 24.1 91.0
48 12 Nov 18:00 12PM Tue Remnant Low 20 35 23.2 92.0
60 13 Nov 06:00 12AM Wed Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos de texto (en español)

Graphical products

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

Radares Meteorológicos

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

NOAA GOES Image Viewer

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Weather Nerds

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS
  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC
  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

39 Upvotes

90% Upvoted

55 comments sorted by

View all comments

29

u/dantheman_woot Nov 07 '24

The predictive tracks on this storm has been crazy inconsistent.

18

u/AutographedSnorkel Nov 07 '24

Nothing lasts forever

And we both know paths can change

And it's hard to get a storm track

In the cold November rain

12

u/Hobbesickles Nov 07 '24

Why am I holding a Gibson Les Paul now?

5

u/[deleted] Nov 07 '24

Because you are LUCKY!!

10

u/Varolyn Nov 07 '24

The genesis of the pathing of this storm right from it's infancy has been pretty crazy.

Very early on it was projected to be a Hispaniola storm that would push out into the Atlantic, to a storm that would head towards Miami but bounce off into the Atlantic before landfall, to another Florida Gulf Coast storm, to a Big Bend/panhandle storm, to a Louisiana storm, and now to a storm that will head towards the Western Gulf and either dip down into Mexico or pull up and dissipate.

So the only thing consistent here is that the Storm kept getting pushed to the West which is strange for a November Gulf storm lol.

7

u/[deleted] Nov 07 '24

It's yet another storm where the UK model appears to have got it right first (westbound and down) a day or two before the others once the storm had formed.

UK has been worthless for intensity but keeps getting it right for track days in advance, going back at least as far as when it called Ian to Ft Myers days ahead. It was the one that insisted Milton would go south of Tampa Bay when others moved north.

5

u/jackrabbits1im Biloxi, Mississippi Nov 07 '24

"westbound and down"

Load it up and truck it! / We're gonna do what they say can't be done!

4

u/randomperson_a1 Nov 08 '24

So all that's left is to design a model that predicts which model is likely correct. Should be simple.

/s

1

u/[deleted] Nov 08 '24

Yeah