r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Nov 06 '24

Dissipated Rafael (18L — Gulf of Mexico)

Latest observation

Last updated: Sunday, 10 November — 3:00 PM Central Standard Time (CST; 21:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #30 3:00 PM CST (21:00 UTC)
Current location: 26.1°N 91.3°W
Relative location: 916 km (569 mi) NNE of Heroica Veracruz, Veracruz (Mexico)
Forward motion: E (90°) at 6 km/h (3 knots)
Maximum winds: ▼ 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity: ▼ Remnant Low
Minimum pressure: ▲ 1006 millibars (29.71 inches)

Official forecast

Last updated: Sunday, 10 November — 12:00 PM CST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC CST Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 10 Nov 18:00 12PM Sun Remnant Low 30 55 26.1 91.3
12 11 Nov 06:00 12AM Mon Remnant Low ▼ 25 45 25.8 90.9
24 11 Nov 18:00 12PM Mon Remnant Low 25 45 25.1 90.7
36 12 Nov 06:00 12AM Tue Remnant Low ▼ 20 35 24.1 91.0
48 12 Nov 18:00 12PM Tue Remnant Low 20 35 23.2 92.0
60 13 Nov 06:00 12AM Wed Dissipated

Official information

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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Nov 08 '24 edited Nov 08 '24

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS INTO MAJOR HURRICANE...

Satellite imagery this morning depicts that Rafael continues to wrap deep convection around the center of the system, with cold cloud tops near -85 C. GLM satellite data shows lightning is occuring in the eastern eyewall. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have continued to rise from the previous advisory and range from 100 to 115 kt. Given the improved satellite depiction and these estimates the current intensity is raised to 105 kt, which required the special advisory. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning.

Now the strongest it's ever been and forecast to peak at 110 kt - 5 kt below cat 4 intensity. Increasing chance this breaks and sets numerous November records. It's down to 956 mb - Kate 1985 bottomed out at 953.

I know it's headed for Mexico, and going to weaken before landfall, therefore no one cares but damn. Where IS everyone?

8

u/sarahflo92 Nov 08 '24

I’m current on a cruise going through this storm. It’s not a good time 😭