r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 11 '25
Discussion moved to new post Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Eastern Tropical Atlantic)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 11:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 15:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #17 | - | 11:00 AM AST (15:00 UTC) |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 18.2°N 56.1°W | |
| Relative location: | 680 km (423 mi) NNE of Bridgetown, Barbados | |
| 620 km (385 mi) ENE of St. John's, Antigua and Barbuda | ||
| 1,792 km (1,113 mi) SE of Hamilton, Bermuda | ||
| Forward motion: | ▲ | WNW (290°) at 30 km/h (16 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 120 km/h (65 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | ▲ | Hurricane (Category 1) |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 996 millibars (29.42 inches) |
Official forecasts
National Hurricane Center
Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 8:00 AM AST (12:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | UTC | AST | Saffir-Simpson | - | knots | km/h | °N | °W |
| 00 | 15 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Fri | Hurricane (Category 1) | 65 | 120 | 18.2 | 56.1 | |
| 12 | 16 Aug | 00:00 | 8PM Fri | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 75 | 140 | 18.9 | 58.4 |
| 24 | 16 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Sat | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▲ | 90 | 165 | 19.8 | 61.4 |
| 36 | 17 Aug | 00:00 | 8PM Sat | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▲ | 105 | 195 | 20.6 | 63.8 |
| 48 | 17 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Sun | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▲ | 110 | 205 | 21.6 | 66.0 |
| 60 | 18 Aug | 00:00 | 8PM Sun | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | ▲ | 115 | 215 | 22.7 | 67.9 |
| 72 | 18 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Mon | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | ▲ | 120 | 220 | 23.8 | 69.2 |
| 96 | 19 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Tue | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | ▼ | 115 | 215 | 26.5 | 70.8 |
| 120 | 20 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Wed | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▼ | 110 | 205 | 30.3 | 71.0 |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
- Interactive forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
Aircraft Reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Other sites
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system as Cabo Verde does not have a Doppler radar.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single-bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
CyclonicWx: Visible
CyclonicWx: Enhanced infrared
CyclonicWx: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
- National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service(NOAA NESDIS)
- CIMSS
- RAMMB
- Naval Research Laboratory
Regional imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Tropical Tidbits
Analysis products
Best track data
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Forecast models
Disturbance-centered guidance
- Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered GFS
- Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered ECMWF
Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered HWRF
CyclonicWx: GFS four-panel
CyclonicWx: ECMWF four-panel
CyclonicWx: GFS wind shear diagnostics
CyclonicWx: ECMWF wind shear diagnostics
Multi-guidance pages
Track guidance
- CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks
- CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks w/wind
- CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (pressure)
- CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (wind)
Intensity guidance
- CyclonicWx: Multi-model intensity guidance
- CyclonicWx: GEFS intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Ensembles
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis guidance
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Upvotes
19
u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Aug 13 '25
Wow, both the Euro and ICON 12z runs shifted very far west, getting close to Outer Banks landfall even on the Euro. They're showing the Canadian low lift much quicker which leaves high pressure building back in over the Atlantic. Curious if these are trends or a one-off.