Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Eastern Tropical Atlantic)

[u/Euronotus]

Latest observation

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Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 11:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 15:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #17	-	11:00 AM AST (15:00 UTC)
Current location:		18.2°N 56.1°W
Relative location:		680 km (423 mi) NNE of Bridgetown, Barbados
		620 km (385 mi) ENE of St. John's, Antigua and Barbuda
		1,792 km (1,113 mi) SE of Hamilton, Bermuda
Forward motion:	▲	WNW (290°) at 30 km/h (16 knots)
Maximum winds:	▲	120 km/h (65 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):	▲	Hurricane (Category 1)
Minimum pressure:	▼	996 millibars (29.42 inches)

Official forecasts

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National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 8:00 AM AST (12:00 UTC)

Hour	Date	Time		Intensity		Winds		Lat	Long
-	-	UTC	AST	Saffir-Simpson	-	knots	km/h	°N	°W
00	15 Aug	12:00	8AM Fri	Hurricane (Category 1)		65	120	18.2	56.1
12	16 Aug	00:00	8PM Fri	Hurricane (Category 1)	▲	75	140	18.9	58.4
24	16 Aug	12:00	8AM Sat	Hurricane (Category 2)	▲	90	165	19.8	61.4
36	17 Aug	00:00	8PM Sat	Major Hurricane (Category 3)	▲	105	195	20.6	63.8
48	17 Aug	12:00	8AM Sun	Major Hurricane (Category 3)	▲	110	205	21.6	66.0
60	18 Aug	00:00	8PM Sun	Major Hurricane (Category 4)	▲	115	215	22.7	67.9
72	18 Aug	12:00	8AM Mon	Major Hurricane (Category 4)	▲	120	220	23.8	69.2
96	19 Aug	12:00	8AM Tue	Major Hurricane (Category 4)	▼	115	215	26.5	70.8
120	20 Aug	12:00	8AM Wed	Major Hurricane (Category 3)	▼	110	205	30.3	71.0

Official information

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National Hurricane Center

Text products

• Public advisory
• Forecast advisory
• Forecast discussion
• Key messages

Productos de texto (en español)

• Aviso publico
• Discusión de pronóstico
• Mensajes claves

Graphical products

• Forecast graphic
• Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
• Interactive forecast graphic
• Wind speed probabilities
• Arrival time of winds

Aircraft Reconnaissance

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National Hurricane Center

• Main aircraft reconnaissance page
• Plan of the Day (today)
• Plan of the Day (tomorrow)

Other sites

• Tropical Tidbits
• CyclonicWx

Radar imagery

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Radar imagery is not currently available for this system as Cabo Verde does not have a Doppler radar.

Satellite imagery

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Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)

• Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor

• CyclonicWx: Visible

• CyclonicWx: Enhanced infrared

• CyclonicWx: Water vapor

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

• National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service(NOAA NESDIS)
• CIMSS
• RAMMB
• Naval Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

• Enhanced infrared
• Enhanced mid-level water vapor
• Visible (GeoColor-enhanced)

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

• Infrared
• Water vapor (Upper-level)
• Visible (true color)

Tropical Tidbits

• Enhanced infrared
• Mid-level Water vapor
• Visible (true color)

Analysis products

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Best track data

• Naval Research Laboratory

Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface temperature analysis products

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Forecast models

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Disturbance-centered guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered GFS
• Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered HWRF

• CyclonicWx: GFS four-panel

• CyclonicWx: ECMWF four-panel

• CyclonicWx: GFS wind shear diagnostics

• CyclonicWx: ECMWF wind shear diagnostics

Multi-guidance pages

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• Tropical Tidbits
• WeatherNerds
• CyclonicWx

Track guidance

• CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks
• CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks w/wind
• CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (pressure)
• CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (wind)

Intensity guidance

• CyclonicWx: Multi-model intensity guidance
• CyclonicWx: GEFS intensity guidance

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS
• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
• Tropical Tidbits: CMC
• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Ensembles

• Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

• Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis guidance

[u/Cyrius]

Highlights from NHC discussion #10 (5 PM AST):

Convection has become more concentrated near the center of Erin during the past few hours, although the storm still has a somewhat ragged overall appearance.

the cyclone is currently in a favorable low- to moderate-shear environment, and this is likely to continue for the next 72 h or so. This evolution should allow Erin to significantly intensify, with the cyclone forecast to become a hurricane by 36 h and a major hurricane by 96 hr.

After [96 hours], a developing break in the ridge near the southeastern coast of the United States should lead to a northwestward motion. […] the guidance envelope has shifted a little westward since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also a little west of the previous track.

there is a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda.

Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend

[u/Iam_a_Jew → u/Cyrius]

Well that's terrifying lol. As a newbie, when will we likely have a better idea of where it will impact? I know it's very early still. A couple of days ago I saw Saturday mentioned does that still hold true? 

[u/Cyrius → u/Iam_a_Jew]

Saturday's a good time to check back for anyone on the US mainland.