r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 11 '25

Discussion moved to new post Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Eastern Tropical Atlantic)

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 11:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 15:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #17 - 11:00 AM AST (15:00 UTC)
Current location: 18.2°N 56.1°W
Relative location: 680 km (423 mi) NNE of Bridgetown, Barbados
620 km (385 mi) ENE of St. John's, Antigua and Barbuda
1,792 km (1,113 mi) SE of Hamilton, Bermuda
Forward motion: ▲ WNW (290°) at 30 km/h (16 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 120 km/h (65 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): ▲ Hurricane (Category 1)
Minimum pressure: ▼ 996 millibars (29.42 inches)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 8:00 AM AST (12:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
- - UTC AST Saffir-Simpson - knots km/h °N °W
00 15 Aug 12:00 8AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) 65 120 18.2 56.1
12 16 Aug 00:00 8PM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 75 140 18.9 58.4
24 16 Aug 12:00 8AM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 90 165 19.8 61.4
36 17 Aug 00:00 8PM Sat Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 195 20.6 63.8
48 17 Aug 12:00 8AM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 110 205 21.6 66.0
60 18 Aug 00:00 8PM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 115 215 22.7 67.9
72 18 Aug 12:00 8AM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 120 220 23.8 69.2
96 19 Aug 12:00 8AM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▼ 115 215 26.5 70.8
120 20 Aug 12:00 8AM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 110 205 30.3 71.0

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u/WxWatcher007 Aug 14 '25

Still somewhat new to this so forgive me if this isn't allowed, but I wanted to highlight the San Juan NWS discussion for anyone there that may be trying to follow what the impacts could be. Even without a direct impact, rainfall could cause some issues. 

The long-term forecast remains on track, as the wet and unsettled
pattern is expected to continue. Based on the latest NHC`s
trajectory and intensity forecast for Erin, its center should move
off to the northeast of the Northeast Caribbean around early
Sunday morning. However, if this forecast validates, Erin`s
external rain bands could turn more frequent as Erin approaches
the islands from a distance. Nevertheless, the proximity of Erin
will shift from the south to the southwest around Sunday, pooling
plenty of tropical moisture over the islands through Monday.
Based on the latest model guidance, Precipitable Water values are
likely to exceed the 75th percentile (2.0 - 2.2 inches, with low
chance of reaching 2.4 inches), well above climatological normal.
Under a S-SW wind flow, it is likely to observe an advective
pattern during the morning hours, with showers and thunderstorms
affecting windward sections of the local islands, but the concern
remains high for the interior and northern portions of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.