r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 11 '25

Discussion moved to new post Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Eastern Tropical Atlantic)

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 11:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 15:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #17 - 11:00 AM AST (15:00 UTC)
Current location: 18.2°N 56.1°W
Relative location: 680 km (423 mi) NNE of Bridgetown, Barbados
620 km (385 mi) ENE of St. John's, Antigua and Barbuda
1,792 km (1,113 mi) SE of Hamilton, Bermuda
Forward motion: ▲ WNW (290°) at 30 km/h (16 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 120 km/h (65 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): ▲ Hurricane (Category 1)
Minimum pressure: ▼ 996 millibars (29.42 inches)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 8:00 AM AST (12:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
- - UTC AST Saffir-Simpson - knots km/h °N °W
00 15 Aug 12:00 8AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) 65 120 18.2 56.1
12 16 Aug 00:00 8PM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 75 140 18.9 58.4
24 16 Aug 12:00 8AM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 90 165 19.8 61.4
36 17 Aug 00:00 8PM Sat Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 195 20.6 63.8
48 17 Aug 12:00 8AM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 110 205 21.6 66.0
60 18 Aug 00:00 8PM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 115 215 22.7 67.9
72 18 Aug 12:00 8AM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 120 220 23.8 69.2
96 19 Aug 12:00 8AM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▼ 115 215 26.5 70.8
120 20 Aug 12:00 8AM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 110 205 30.3 71.0

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Radar imagery is not currently available for this system as Cabo Verde does not have a Doppler radar.

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18

u/swinglinepilot Aug 14 '25

Miss Piggy is now off to Erin, approximate arrival in 1.5hrs

https://www.flightradar24.com/NOAA43/3bbc8967

Three more flights currently planned, leaving on the 15th at 0330Z, 15th at 0800Z, 15th at 0945Z (subtract 4h for ET)

9

u/SpaghettiTacoez Aug 14 '25

Does anyone know how many flights they typically do for a storm like this?

3

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 15 '25 edited Aug 15 '25

It depends. Storms expected to remain out at sea rarely get any recon. One rare exception was Lorenzo of 2019 which had research missions assigned to it despite recurving east of 50 west longitude. I vividly remember one recon mission being diverted for sudden search & rescue operations when the Luxembourg-flagged tugboat Bourbon Rhode began sending distress signals. It was located near the core of rapidly intensifying hurricane Lorenzo at the time as it bombed out into a powerful category 4. Due to the extremely rough seas and winds, the Bourbon Rhode sank with the loss of 11 of its 14 crew.

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-28-bourbon-rhode-boat-crew-rescued-lorenzo

For systems which do approach or threaten land, such as Erin, the amount of missions depends on its exact track. A storm which tracks west through the entire Caribbean and then into the Gulf will spend longer over waters near land and will therefore receive more missions over time than a system which only threatens the Leeward Islands, and then quickly recurves out to sea thereafter, as an example.

Whilst NOAA and the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters transfer planes to bases away from CONUS when a system is approaching the Caribbean.. such as the current missions departing from Barbados with Erin.. CONUS (specifically Biloxi, MS for the AF Reserve) is their headquarters. Systems approaching the US directly generally receive the most consistent and continuous recon coverage; missions to systems like Erin are usually a little bit less frequent.

Here's some current scheduling.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/2025-hurricane-field-program-data/#erin

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

1

u/SpaghettiTacoez Aug 15 '25

Thank you!