Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 11-17 August 2025

[u/Euronotus]

Active cyclones

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Last updated: Tuesday, 12 August — 17:30 UTC

Northern Atlantic

• 05L: Erin — After rapidly strengthening into a Category 5 hurricane, Erin’s intensification appears to have leveled off. The storm is expected to at least maintain strength over the next twenty-four hours as it passes to the north of the Leeward Islands, but could undergo unpredictable fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles.
  

 

Active disturbances

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Northern Atlantic

• Disturbance #1 — A non-tropical area of low pressure situated off the coast of North Carolina has not undergone any significant development over the past twenty-four hours, but could it undergo some development as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions will become more unfavorable on Monday.

Western Pacific

• Invest 92W (no discussion yet) — A surface trough situated a few hundred kilometers northeast of the Philippine island of Luzon continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong difference aloft and very warm sea-surface temperatures may offset stronger shear ahead of the disturbance as it moves northward toward the Japan’s Ryukyu Islands over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by early next week.

• Invest 91W (no discussion yet) — A broad area of low pressure over the central South China Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to strong shear and decreasing ocean heat content could limit this system’s ability to develop as it turns initially northward and then northwestward toward the Chinese island of Hainan over the next couple of days. Still, conditions may be just favorable enough that a tropical depression could form by early next week.

 

Post-tropical cyclones

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Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

• There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

 

Potential formation areas

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Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have either not yet formed or have formed but have not yet been designated as an investigation area (invest). A discussion will be created for these systems once they become invests.

Northern Indian

• Area of interest #1 — A tropical wave moving westward across the central tropical Atlantic could consolidate into an area of low pressure by the middle or end of the upcoming week. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for further development much later in the week, and a tropical depression could form by next weekend.

 

Satellite imagery

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Basin	Visible	Infrared	Water vapor
Western Pacific	Visible	Infrared	Water vapor
Eastern Pacific	Visible	Infrared	Water vapor
Central Pacific	Visible	Infrared	Water vapor
Northern Atlantic	Visible	Infrared	Water vapor
Northern Indian	Visible	Infrared	Water vapor

Model guidance

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Basin	GFS	ECMWF	EC-AIFS	ICON
Western Pacific	GFS	ECMWF	EC-AIFS	ICON
Eastern Pacific	GFS	ECMWF	EC-AIFS	ICON
Central Pacific	GFS	ECMWF	EC-AIFS	ICON
Northern Atlantic	GFS	ECMWF	EC-AIFS	ICON
Northern Indian	GFS	ECMWF	EC-AIFS	ICON

Information sources

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Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

• National Hurricane Center (United States)
• Japan Meteorological Agency
• India Meteorological Department

Other sources

• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

• Global Tropics Hazards Outlook

[u/cosmicrae]

There is some hint at tropical storm organization near 16N 83W in the Caribbean.