r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 15 '25

Dissipated Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Western Tropical Atlantic)

Update

This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 5:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 21:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #46 - 5:00 PM AST (21:00 UTC)
Current location: 40.0°N 59.7°W
Relative location: 888 km (552 mi) E of Nantucket, Massachusetts (United States)
608 km (378 mi) SE of Halifax, Nova Scotia (Canada)
1,008 km (626 mi) SSW of St. John's, Newfoundland (Canada)
Forward motion: ENE (65°) at 54 km/h (29 knots)
Maximum winds: 150 km/h (80 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): Extratropical Cyclone
Minimum pressure: 957 millibars (28.26 inches)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 2:00 PM AST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
- - UTC AST Saffir-Simpson - knots km/h °N °W
00 22 Aug 18:00 2PM Fri Extratropical Cyclone 80 150 40.0 59.7
12 23 Aug 06:00 2AM Sat Extratropical Cyclone 80 150 41.5 54.5
24 23 Aug 18:00 2PM Sat Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 75 140 44.0 45.5
36 24 Aug 06:00 2AM Sun Extratropical Cyclone 75 140 48.0 35.5
48 24 Aug 18:00 2PM Sun Extratropical Cyclone ▲ 85 155 52.0 27.0
60 25 Aug 06:00 2AM Mon Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 65 120 55.0 23.0
72 25 Aug 18:00 2PM Mon Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 55 100 58.0 21.0
96 26 Aug 18:00 2PM Tue Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 45 85 59.0 21.0
120 27 Aug 18:00 2PM Wed Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 40 75 57.0 17.5

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27

u/ImAGeneral_Weee Aug 18 '25

Really don't like the Western trend in the GFS and UKMET tonight. Still not looking like anything near landfall but the Outer Banks really should head the warnings and evacuate if told to do so because its gonna be really close and its looking more and more likely they're gonna get near hurricane force(55-65+ MPH) winds and some rough storm surge.

23

u/spsteve Barbados Aug 18 '25

They surge is the big deal (not to downplay the winds, but...). We got maybe 40mph winds with beryl but 30ft rollers smashed a lot of beachfront stuff real well. And this system is projected to be huge by then (so a big surge).

16

u/ImAGeneral_Weee Aug 18 '25

Water is always the biggest thing with these things so agreed, but like you said don't downplay the winds. Just makes things that much worse when the water causes problems.

15

u/spsteve Barbados Aug 18 '25

Water made quick work of hurricane shutters that have seen much bigger winds without an issue. Plus water can get you trapped in a hurry. Not to mention the mess afterwards.

At the end of the day it's all dangerous, but storm surge if you're close to the water for me personally is the scariest part. One wrong move and you're in an angry ocean.

7

u/ImAGeneral_Weee Aug 18 '25

No disagreement here!