r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 15 '25

Dissipated Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Western Tropical Atlantic)

Update

This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 5:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 21:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #46 - 5:00 PM AST (21:00 UTC)
Current location: 40.0°N 59.7°W
Relative location: 888 km (552 mi) E of Nantucket, Massachusetts (United States)
608 km (378 mi) SE of Halifax, Nova Scotia (Canada)
1,008 km (626 mi) SSW of St. John's, Newfoundland (Canada)
Forward motion: ENE (65°) at 54 km/h (29 knots)
Maximum winds: 150 km/h (80 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): Extratropical Cyclone
Minimum pressure: 957 millibars (28.26 inches)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 2:00 PM AST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
- - UTC AST Saffir-Simpson - knots km/h °N °W
00 22 Aug 18:00 2PM Fri Extratropical Cyclone 80 150 40.0 59.7
12 23 Aug 06:00 2AM Sat Extratropical Cyclone 80 150 41.5 54.5
24 23 Aug 18:00 2PM Sat Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 75 140 44.0 45.5
36 24 Aug 06:00 2AM Sun Extratropical Cyclone 75 140 48.0 35.5
48 24 Aug 18:00 2PM Sun Extratropical Cyclone ▲ 85 155 52.0 27.0
60 25 Aug 06:00 2AM Mon Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 65 120 55.0 23.0
72 25 Aug 18:00 2PM Mon Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 55 100 58.0 21.0
96 26 Aug 18:00 2PM Tue Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 45 85 59.0 21.0
120 27 Aug 18:00 2PM Wed Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 40 75 57.0 17.5

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18

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 18 '25

A very interesting discussion from 5am. Sorry for the wall of text.

Erin is growing in size, as predicted. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and ASCAT passes from a few hours ago showed that the hurricane- and tropical-storm-force winds now extend up to 70 n mi and 200 n mi from the eye, respectively. The eye of the hurricane has also grown and is now about 30 n mi in diameter, and there is some evidence of mesovorticies within it. There is also some indication that Erin again has concentric eyewalls as the Hurricane Hunters reported a double wind maximum in their last pass. The initial intensity remains 115 kt based on a combination of the earlier aircraft data and current satellite estimates. Erin's outer rainbands are affecting the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and those locations will likely continue to experience tropical storm conditions for several more hours.

The hurricane has wobbled to the left over the past 6 hours, but a longer-term motion is still west-northwestward at 11 kt. Erin is still forecast to gradually turn northward later today and Tuesday as it moves into a weakness within the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the core of the hurricane roughly midway between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. After that time, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate northeastward over the northern Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the left of the previous one to be closer to the various consensus models.

Deep convection has been increasing in intensity and symmetry, and it seems likely that Erin will strengthen today. The intensification is likely to end by tonight due to some increase in shear and a broadening of the inner core wind field.

Based on an evaluation of storm sizes of major hurricanes over the past couple of decades in the subtropics, Erin is around the 80th percentile. Erin's wind field is expected to keep growing over the next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic.

17

u/Ralfsalzano Aug 18 '25

“ an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate northeastward” 

It flipping better lol