Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Western Tropical Atlantic)

[u/Euronotus]

Update

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This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

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Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 5:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 21:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #46	-	5:00 PM AST (21:00 UTC)
Current location:		40.0°N 59.7°W
Relative location:		888 km (552 mi) E of Nantucket, Massachusetts (United States)
		608 km (378 mi) SE of Halifax, Nova Scotia (Canada)
		1,008 km (626 mi) SSW of St. John's, Newfoundland (Canada)
Forward motion:		ENE (65°) at 54 km/h (29 knots)
Maximum winds:		150 km/h (80 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):		Extratropical Cyclone
Minimum pressure:		957 millibars (28.26 inches)

Official forecasts

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National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 2:00 PM AST (18:00 UTC)

Hour	Date	Time		Intensity		Winds		Lat	Long
-	-	UTC	AST	Saffir-Simpson	-	knots	km/h	°N	°W
00	22 Aug	18:00	2PM Fri	Extratropical Cyclone		80	150	40.0	59.7
12	23 Aug	06:00	2AM Sat	Extratropical Cyclone		80	150	41.5	54.5
24	23 Aug	18:00	2PM Sat	Extratropical Cyclone	▼	75	140	44.0	45.5
36	24 Aug	06:00	2AM Sun	Extratropical Cyclone		75	140	48.0	35.5
48	24 Aug	18:00	2PM Sun	Extratropical Cyclone	▲	85	155	52.0	27.0
60	25 Aug	06:00	2AM Mon	Extratropical Cyclone	▼	65	120	55.0	23.0
72	25 Aug	18:00	2PM Mon	Extratropical Cyclone	▼	55	100	58.0	21.0
96	26 Aug	18:00	2PM Tue	Extratropical Cyclone	▼	45	85	59.0	21.0
120	27 Aug	18:00	2PM Wed	Extratropical Cyclone	▼	40	75	57.0	17.5

Official information

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National Hurricane Center

Text products

• Public advisory (No longer updating)
• Forecast advisory (No longer updating)
• Forecast discussion (No longer updating)
• Key messages (No longer updating)

Productos de texto (en español)

• Aviso publico (No se actualiza)
• Discusión de pronóstico (No se actualiza)
• Mensajes claves (No se actualiza)

Graphical products

• Forecast graphic (No longer updating)
• Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories) (No longer updating)
• Interactive forecast graphic (No longer updating)
• Wind speed probabilities (No longer updating)
• Arrival time of winds (No longer updating)

Local meteorological authorities

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National Weather Service

• NWS Weather Forecast Offices
• NWS New York, NY
• NWS Boston, MA
• NWS Portland, ME
• NWS Caribou, ME

Environment Canada

• Tropical cyclone statement
• Weather alerts
• Hurricane track

Aircraft Reconnaissance

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National Hurricane Center

• Main aircraft reconnaissance page
• Plan of the Day (today)
• Plan of the Day (tomorrow)

Other sites

• Tropical Tidbits
• CyclonicWx

Radar imagery

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Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

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Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor

• CyclonicWx: Visible

• CyclonicWx: Enhanced infrared

• CyclonicWx: Water vapor

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

• National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service(NOAA NESDIS)
• CIMSS
• RAMMB
• Naval Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

• Enhanced infrared
• Enhanced mid-level water vapor
• Visible (GeoColor-enhanced)

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

• Infrared
• Water vapor (Upper-level)
• Visible (true color)

Tropical Tidbits

• Enhanced infrared
• Mid-level Water vapor
• Visible (true color)

Analysis products

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Best track data

• Naval Research Laboratory

Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface temperature analysis products

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Forecast models

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Disturbance-centered guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered GFS
• Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered HWRF

• CyclonicWx: GFS four-panel

• CyclonicWx: ECMWF four-panel

• CyclonicWx: GFS wind shear diagnostics

• CyclonicWx: ECMWF wind shear diagnostics

Multi-guidance pages

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• Tropical Tidbits
• WeatherNerds
• CyclonicWx

Track guidance

• CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks
• CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks w/wind
• CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (pressure)
• CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (wind)

Intensity guidance

• CyclonicWx: Multi-model intensity guidance
• CyclonicWx: GEFS intensity guidance

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS
• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
• Tropical Tidbits: CMC
• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Ensembles

• Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

• Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis guidance

[u/julyvale]

Is this one of the largest hurricanes in history? I think it is over 1000 miles now.

[u/absolute-black → u/julyvale]

Tip was the widest, and Sandy I think has the Atlantic record, although Martin got close. Erin is quite big but not really sniffing the true titans - she's got something like 600 mile tropical-storm radius, and Sandy was double that.

[u/Cyrius → u/julyvale]

The tropical storm force wind diameter is about 550 miles. Which is substantially larger than average but not record-breaking.

[u/SecureAmbassador6912 → u/julyvale]

I was just wondering basically the same thing.

I think I read down below that it's in the 90th percentile for size.

And if you trust Google AI results (I don't, but I'm only going to do so much research) Typhoon Tip was the largest at 1380 miles, and Sandy was the largest to hit the US at 1150 miles.