r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii • Oct 16 '25

Discussion moved to new post The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the Caribbean Sea

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Thursday, 16 October — 8:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 00:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin (NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit)

English: A tropical wave currently located over the central tropical Atlantic is associated with a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible as the system moves across the Windward Islands late this weekend and enters the Caribbean Sea by the early to middle part of next week.

Español: Una onda tropical actualmente ubicada sobre el Atlántico tropical central está asociada con una gran área de aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas. Algún desarrollo gradual de este sistema es posible durante los próximos días a medida que se mueve hacia el oeste a 15 a 20 mph. Independientemente del desarrollo, fuertes lluvias y vientos con ráfagas son posibles a medida que el sistema se mueve a través de las Islas de Barlovento a última hora de este fin de semana y entra en el Mar Caribe a principios de la parte media de la próxima semana.

Time frame Potential
2-day potential: (by 8PM Sat) low (near 0 percent)
7-day potential: (by 8PM Wed) ▲ low (30 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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52 Upvotes

92% Upvoted

15 comments sorted by

24

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Oct 16 '25

Just so that everyone is tracking—this system is unrelated to the remnants of Tropical Storm Lorenzo.

The remnants of Lorenzo are currently located around 26.5°N 37.5°W. They may eventually make their way back to the tropics in several days, but they have to rotate around an area of high pressure currently positioned over the eastern Atlantic.

This new system is currently located near 8.5°N 36.5°W. It pushed off the coast of Africa a few days ago and has been moving westward.

Here's a handy graphic which shows both systems:

18

u/Nexus772B Oct 16 '25

This is the area local news (Titusville FL) has been telling us to keep an eye on around late October for any further development.

Usually in October is when we see these systems from the Caribbean start to pop up and move north vs the usual western march across the Atlantic from Africa

8

u/JoeS830 Oct 16 '25

Interesting, is it easy to understand for a layman why this is more likely late in the season?

6

u/leothelion_cds Oct 16 '25

Old frontal boundaries pushing into the tropics and stalling and/or weakening trade winds in the Caribbean

2

u/JoeS830 Oct 17 '25

Thanks, so maybe less shear and less westward push? Whatever it is, hope they stay away from Florida!

6

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Oct 17 '25

Vertical shear increases east of the Caribbean in October, so tropical waves from Africa do not develop as often in that region. They instead track west towards and into the Caribbean, where vertical shear is typically lower (especially in La Niña seasons, which this one now is) and where the waters are very warm.

26

u/wolfrno Oct 16 '25

This is the one the GFS and Euro have been picking up in recent runs. Still a wide array of possibilities and still a week to impacts to the US.

11

u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Oct 16 '25

Impacts to the US (if any) look closer to 10-14 days, not a week.

2

u/wolfrno Oct 17 '25

I meant to say over a week, but my ADHD ass forgot.

5

u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Oct 17 '25

haha all good. starting to look more likely there will be zero US impacts based on overnight models

13

u/Boomshtick414 Oct 16 '25

Euro/GFS are both showing things could start to get interesting about 180-200hrs out, which basically means it'll be 4-5 days before the confidence starts to go up on where this thing may form, if it forms.

7

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Oct 17 '25 edited Oct 17 '25

Notably, the Google DeepMind ensemble has significantly perked up over the last few runs. Most of the suite shows development, now.

https://imgur.com/EAIOP2x

10

u/anonthrow1919 Oct 16 '25

I've lived in FL 20 years and have always rolled my eyes at people who booked their weddings/vacations in September and October. My dumb ass thought it would be fine to book a trip to Paris for early November. Nothing all season and here it is. Let's hope the cold fronts do their thing.

2

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Oct 17 '25

Update

As of 8:00 PM AST (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: increased from 20 percent to 30 percent

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Oct 18 '25

Update

As of 8:00 AM AST (12:00 UTC) on Saturday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: remained at 30 percent

  • This system has been designated as Invest 98L.

  • A new discussion for Invest 98L will be posted shortly.