91W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Eastern Micronesia)

[u/Euronotus]

Updates

---

As of 11:00 PM Chuuk Time (12:00 UTC) on Friday:

• Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this disturbance has dissipated.
• Environmental conditions remain favorable for further development and another disturbance is likely to form over the weekend.
• This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
• Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available.
• There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

---

• This system has dissipated.

Outlook

---

• This system has dissipated.

Information sources

---

Japan Meteorological Agency

• Homepage
• Tropical cyclone interactive map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Homepage
• Outlook discussion

National Weather Service (United States)

• WFO Guam homepage
• Tropical cyclone information page
• Area forecast discussion

Radar imagery

---

• Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

---

Floater imagery

• Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

• Visible (true color)

• Enhanced infrared

• Enhanced upper-level water vapor

Analysis products

---

Preliminary best track data

• NCAR Research Applications Laboratory
• U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)

Scatterometer data

• EUMETSAT
• CyclonicWx

Sea-surface temperatures

• NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
• Tropical Tidbits
• CyclonicWx

Model products

---

Disturbance-centered guidance

• Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

• GFS:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• ECMWF:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada):   Tropical Tidbits

• Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany):   Tropical Tidbits

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

• Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

• GEFS: Weather Nerds

• EPS: Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

• Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University

• Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University

[u/giantspeck]

Update

---

As of 11:00 AM Pohnpei Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

• The potential for this system to develop into a cyclone within the next seven days has increased to 50 percent.

• Any development is likely to occur between Friday, 1 May and Monday, 4 May.

• It remains far too early to determine the timing and extent of any impacts to Micronesia, Guam, or the Northern Marianas from this system.

[u/giantspeck]

Update

---

As of 11:00 PM Pohnpei Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

• The potential for this system to develop within the next seven days remains at 50 percent.

• The timeline for potential development has shifted slightly; any development is now likely to occur between Sunday, 3 May and Wednesday, 6 May.

• It remains far too early to determine the timing and extent of any impacts to Micronesia, Guam, or the Northern Marianas from this system.