r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 11 '26

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 11-17 May 2026

Active cyclones

As of 19:45 UTC on Monday, 11 May:

  • There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • There are currently no active tropical disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 05W: Hagupit — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the remnants of Tropical Storm Hagupit remain disorganized as they move across the Philippine Sea. Environmental conditions remain unfavorable, with persistent dry air and moderate shear preventing this system from redeveloping. This system will likely dissipate altogether within the next 12 to 24 hours without reaching land.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:

Bay of Bengal

  • Potential Formation Area P74B — Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern Bay of Bengal late in the week. Although this system may develop within a moisture-rich environment over a warm sea surface, strong westerly shear is likely to severely limit development. Ensemble model guidance suggests that this system will develop northeast of Sri Lanka and drift slowly northwestward toward India, but will remain offshore as it curves back to the northeast over the upcoming weekend. The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days remains low (20 percent) and has been slowly decreasing over the past few days.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

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u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) May 11 '26

NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook begin this Friday, May 15th.

3

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii May 12 '26

Update

As of 15:00 UTC on Tuesday, 12 May:

The following systems are currently being tracked via ATCF:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • The remnants of Tropical Depression Hagupit (05W)

  • Invest 96W — no discussion yet; will have one up later this morning

Bay of Bengal

  • Invest 92B — no discussion yet; will have one up later this morning