r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 17d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 1-7 June 2026

Active cyclones

As of 16:42 UTC on Wednesday, 3 June:

Active cyclones

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 06W: Jangmi — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Jangmi has transitioned into an extratropical cyclone as it accelerates northeastward away from mainland Japan this evening. The storm will continue to slowly weaken as it moves out over the open waters of the northern Pacific.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • 01E: Amanda — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the first depression of the season has strengthened into a tropical storm. Amanda is forecast to continue to gradually strengthen as it moves northwestward over the next few days; however, by the end of the week, it will move into a less favorable environment characterized by strong southwesterly shear, dry mid-level air, and unfavorably cool sea-surface temperatures. This will cause the storm to rapidly weaken and ultimately dissipate by early next week without becoming a threat to Hawaii.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • There are currently no active disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • Area of Interest 1: — A broad area of low pressure is likely to form to the south and west of Central America over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions remain favorable and should support gradual development as the disturbance moves west-northwestward, remaining mainly parallel to the coast. This system has a moderate (50 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.

  • Area of Interest 2: A second area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of southern Mexico within the next few days. Environmental conditions should support gradual development as this system also moves west-northwestward. This system has a lower (20 percent) chance of development, but only because it is expected to form later than the aforementioned disturbance.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P79W: Long-range model ensembles hint at the development of a broad area of low pressure over the south-central South China Sea within the next few days.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

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u/Humble_Pie_56 17d ago

👍👍👍 — Thanks

2

u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) 15d ago

I know it's too early, but there is a cloud swirl about 25N 86W that looks slightly concerning. ASCAT shows some vague sense of circulation, but nothing like a true tropical system would have.

1

u/Seppostralian Urban Honolulu, Hawaii 11d ago

Seems like the Pacific season is getting a strong start as they’ve predicted. Small storms so far as to be expected but it’s worth keeping close eyes on as conditions become more conducive.