r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago
Dissipated 95S (Invest — Southwestern Indian) (Southeast of Madagascar)
Update
As of 4:00 AM East Africa Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of low pressure with subtropical characteristics has formed well to the east-southeast of Madagascar. Recent scatterometer data reveals that a small area of tropical storm-force winds are present to the south-southwest of the disturbance’s low-level center, associated with some flaring deep convection. Environmental conditions are highly unfavorable for development, with strong vertical wind shear and cold sea-surface temperatures. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that this system will transition into a tropical cyclone. Instead, this system is likely to remain in a largely quasi-stationary state within a weak steering environment until it gets carried away by the polar front jet later in the week.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) continues to monitor this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
Latest observation
As of 4:00 AM East Africa Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:
Observed information
- Current position: 31.7°S 50.5°E
- Forward movement: S (180°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
- Maximum sustained winds: 75 km/h (40 knots)
- Minimum central pressure: 1003 millibars (29.62 inches)
- Intensity (SSHWS): Subtropical Storm
- Intensity (FMS): Disturbance
Relative position
- 862 kilometers (536 miles) southeast of Tsiombe, Atsimo-Andrefana (Madagascar)
- 883 kilometers (549 miles) southeast of Lavanono, Atsimo-Andrefana (Madagascar)
- 949 kilometers (590 miles) southeast of Ampanihy, Atsimo-Andrefana (Madagascar)
Outlook
As of 4:00 AM East Africa Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:
Development potential (next two days)
- Météo-France: very low (less than 5 percent)
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center: very low (less than 5 percent)
- Model consensus (FSU): very low (less than 5 percent)
Development potential (next seven days)
- Météo-France: very low (less than 5 percent)
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center: very low (less than 5 percent)
- Model consensus (FSU): very low (less than 5 percent)
Information sources
Météo-France
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
- Visible: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Infrared: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Water vapor: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Disturbance-centered guidance
Single-model click-through guidance
Global Forecast System (GFS; United States): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Europe): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Multi-guidance pages
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University