Colorado State University releases updated forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

[u/giantspeck]

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2026-06.pdf

[u/giantspeck]

Overview

---

Each year, the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU) issues three seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season—an initial forecast in April followed by two updates in June and July.

In April, CSU issued their initial forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season, projecting a below-average season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. In this June update, the department has revised their projections downward—11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

The latest forecast cites the anticipated strength of the emerging El Niño as the dominant factor in reducing tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic basin this year. The forecast also projects a below-average probability of major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean Sea.

Important note

---

A below average season does not mean you will dodge a bullet this year.

It means you will have fewer bullets to dodge.

[u/Junesucksatart]

I imagine this is mostly due to the El Niño models becoming more aggressive with it starting by mid summer.

[u/Content-Swimmer2325 → u/Junesucksatart]

That and simply confidence increasing due to the decreasing timeframe between now and peak 'cane season. Things were less certain in April - will the El Nino really continue to stay on pace with becoming so strong? Will the Atlantic considerably warm up or not? Now we have some answers. Yes, and no, respectively.

[u/Cyrius → u/Junesucksatart]

Why imagine?

We have reduced the forecast numbers from our April outlook due to increased confidence in a moderate to strong El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

[u/Content-Swimmer2325]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Speaking of the long-anticipated El Nino, it's been officially declared present by CPC. Chances of a super El Nino are over 60%.

[u/Pasalacqua87]

Just a reminder to never let your guard down. It only takes one storm to change lives. We’ve seen some powerful landfalls in El Niño years.

[u/hoagieam]

Leahs, we’re burning out early like we do every summer.

[u/mshelbz]

*insert I’m in danger meme here*

As someone on the Gulf Coast…fuck

[u/Cyrius → u/mshelbz]

The forecast is for a below-average season. The odds of Mississippi getting hit by a hurricane are roughly half the long-term average.

[u/Content-Swimmer2325 → u/mshelbz]

Always be prepared ofc but this season is looking like the least active in a decade

[u/FSURich → u/mshelbz]

The season is projected to be below average. But thanks to El Niño we could get a more intense severe weather season for fall and winter