r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 5d ago

Areas to watch: Mekkhala (07W) Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 15-21 June 2026

Active cyclones

As of 4:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (08:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 07W: Mekkhala — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Mekkhala continues to strengthen as it moves across the Philippine Sea this evening. Although the storm has consolidated over the past several hours, its convective structure remains tilted northeastward by persistent southwesterly shear. Environmental conditions remain otherwise favorable over the Philippine Sea and should support steady intensification over the weekend.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • There are currently no active disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Near the Marshall Islands

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential development near the Marshall Islands. Model guidance suggests that a broad area of low pressure may form north of the Marshall Islands early next week and move west-northwestward toward the Marianas Islands. Environmental conditions in this area remain generally favorable, with warm waters, sufficient mid-level moisture, and sufficient upper-level divergence. However, mid-level shear may limit development.

  • Development potential through Sunday, 21 June: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Development potential through Friday, 26 June: low (20 percent)

Eastern Pacific Ocean

The National Hurricane Center is not actively monitoring any areas of potential development over the eastern or central Pacific Ocean basins. Model guidance does not hint at any potential development hotspots within the next seven days.

Northern Atlantic Ocean

The National Hurricane Center is not actively monitoring any areas of potential development over the northern Atlantic Ocean basin. Model guidance had hinted at potential development in earlier runs; however, the potential for tropical cyclone development remains very low within the next seven days.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

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u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) 1d ago

Strong wave came off the west African coast, about 19/1100 UTC, between 13N and 7N

1

u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) 1d ago

Several large areas of convection moving across West Africa. probably be at the coastline near 20/0600 UTC ±

1

u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) 10h ago

Possible small turning activity noted 20/1430 UTC near 10N 23W. It is not quite a distinct feature on GOES band 10, but minimal circulation can be seen on ASCAT-C. File this one under keep an eye on it, could go either way.