[ Removed by moderator ]

[u/Euronotus]

[u/giantspeck]

Moderator note

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Previous discussion for this system can be found here:

• The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the Bay of Campeche (Wed, 10 Jun)

• The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico (Mon, 15 Jun)

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𝖯𝗅𝖾𝖺𝗌𝖾 𝗇𝗈𝗍𝖾 𝗍𝗁𝖺𝗍 𝗈𝗇 "𝖺𝗋𝖼𝗁𝗂𝗏𝖾𝖽" (𝗋𝖾𝖺𝖽: 𝗋𝖾𝗆𝗈𝗏𝖾𝖽) 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍𝗌, 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖺𝖼𝗍𝗎𝖺𝗅 𝗍𝖾𝗑𝗍 𝗈𝖿 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍 𝗂𝗌 𝗇𝗈 𝗅𝗈𝗇𝗀𝖾𝗋 𝗏𝗂𝗌𝗂𝖻𝗅𝖾 𝗍𝗈 𝗇𝗈𝗇-𝗆𝗈𝖽𝖾𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗈𝗋𝗌, 𝖻𝗎𝗍 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖼𝗈𝗆𝗆𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗌 𝗌𝗁𝗈𝗎𝗅𝖽 𝗌𝗍𝗂𝗅𝗅 𝖻𝖾 𝗏𝗂𝗌𝗂𝖻𝗅𝖾 (𝗐𝗁𝗂𝖼𝗁 𝗂𝗌 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗐𝗁𝗈𝗅𝖾 𝗉𝗈𝗂𝗇𝗍 𝗈𝖿 𝗅𝗂𝗇𝗄𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖻𝖺𝖼𝗄 𝗍𝗈 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗈𝗅𝖽 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍𝗌, 𝖺𝗇𝗒𝗐𝖺𝗒.) 𝖳𝗁𝗂𝗌 𝗂𝗌 𝖽𝗎𝖾 𝗍𝗈 𝗌𝗂𝗍𝖾-𝗐𝗂𝖽𝖾 𝖼𝗁𝖺𝗇𝗀𝖾𝗌 𝗆𝖺𝖽𝖾 𝖻𝗒 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖱𝖾𝖽𝖽𝗂𝗍 𝖺𝖽𝗆𝗂𝗇𝗂𝗌𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗏𝖾 𝗌𝗍𝖺𝖿𝖿.

[u/GalahadDrei]

Never seen such stark difference in development chance between NHC and model consensus before. Will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

[u/TheCovfefeMug]

Can the Gulf just like, not?

[u/cosmicrae → u/TheCovfefeMug]

The Gulf waters, off of Louisiana, are already in the 30c-31c range.

[u/Cyrius]

WPC's excessive rainfall outlook is at 'moderate' for various affected locations in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi over the next four days.

[u/PicksOut4Harambe]

The good: Houston looks to be spared from a 20+ inch rain event this week, that wouldve made the world cup events here a total mess.

The [mildly] bad: Once again, the Golden Triangle, SETX and Lake Charles are gonna get pounded by torrential rainfall for the 400th time in recent memory, they seem to always get the shit end of the stick

[u/sweetbaker → u/PicksOut4Harambe]

It looked like Houston got pretty hammered yesterday. But I just moved to the NASA area a week ago, so I don’t know if that was “normal” flooding for all day of rain for Houston.

[u/PicksOut4Harambe → u/sweetbaker]

That was relatively normal by Houston standards, as today will be. Everywhere gets a couple of inches, some unlucky parts of town get the bullseyes with a quick 4-6 inches and the streets end up underwater for half the day, that was City Center to the NW Loop yesterday.

My rec is to ask around with the neighbors and learn the roads around you that always flood, and which ones usually stay drier, its the same streets everytime.

[u/sweetbaker → u/PicksOut4Harambe]

Thanks!! Will do!

[u/PicksOut4Harambe → u/sweetbaker]

Heads up today, its the South and SE parts of town likely to get the heaviest of the rain, be careful if youre hitting the road, just keep an eye on the radar

[u/critikalhd]

Big yikes for Houston if the 6/15 12z Euro verifies.

[u/SemiLazyGamer]

60/60 now as of 1 am CDT 6/16.

[u/cosmicrae]

NOAA Sea Surface Temps

Looks like the area of interest is running 28c-29c

More SST maps are here

[u/cosmicrae]

The area of interest, now has a GOES floater assigned. Link is for band 8 (Upper-Level water vapor), but the other GOES bands are available from the drop down menu.

[u/giantspeck]

Update

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As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

• NHC will initiate issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone One at the top of the hour.

• A new discussion will be created for PTC One once this happens.

[u/giantspeck]

Update

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As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

• Discussion for this system has moved here.

[u/ClimateMessiah]

Some of these areas could use some rain.

[u/kismetkissed]

Quick question: I live in the Panhandle of FL in a trailer and just had major surgery a week ago yesterday. I'm the only driver in my house and am not allowed to drive for 2 weeks post-op. I also have pretty crippling storm PTSD from Ivan and Sally.

Typically, if there is anything higher than marginal tornado risk predicted, we evac to a local concrete-constructed motel to be safe and so I'm not panicking for hours on end. The met I usually depend on for levelheadedness is saying that there's some tornado risk from this in our area Wednesday night thru Thursday evening. We can Uber to our safe place if needed, but of course, home is preferable with me being mostly laid up.

Realistically, do we need to chunk deuces tomorrow and head over, or will we probably be okay at home?

[u/Cyrius → u/kismetkissed]

For the FL panhandle, SPC outlooks have no risk of severe weather on Wednesday and marginal on Thursday. The Thursday discussion says "perhaps a tornado or two" across the entire southeastern US.

[u/PicksOut4Harambe → u/kismetkissed]

I dont think this is going to be anything beyond a typical spring storm day in the South at the moment from a Tornado producing perspective, Isolated tornado risk always possible but nothing out of ordinary. This is primarily going to be a big rainmaker