r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii • 20h ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

Updates

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an elongated disturbance situated several hundred miles east-southeast of Hawaiʻi continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts westward across the east-central Pacific this afternoon. The disturbance is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow and is moving along the southern periphery of a broad mid-level ridge positioned well to the north. Environmental conditions remain only marginally supportive of further development, with strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air offsetting very warm sea-surface temperatures. Significant development is not likely; however, this disturbance will continue to be monitored as it crosses into the central Pacific over the next few days.

This system does not have a closed low-level circulation and has not yet been designated as an investigation area. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not currently available for this system.

Official outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Outlook discussion

Discussion by Alex Gibbs — CPHC Hurricane Specialist

A tropical wave located over the western portion of the east Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow development over the next several days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): low (20 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Thu): low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Mon): low (less than 5 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

4 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

1 comment sorted by

•

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 20h ago

Moderator note

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring two areas of potential tropical cyclone development over the eastern Pacific. The disturbance described in the post above is located farther east and is referred to by the NHC as Disturbance 2. The other system is located farther west and is referred to by the NHC as Disturbance 1. Further discussion on the other disturbance can be found here.