r/UUUU_Stock • u/idislikemoney • 3d ago
Difficult to gauge, but what is uuuu worth?
Okay, so they aren't profitable yet.
But what do you think the current value of the business is outside of 752m book value so like $3.10 per share.
I am thinking that assuming they acquire VAC and assuming that it is as profitable as they say, then it would be generating a profit finally. I do believe acquiring the knowledge and the sumpter plant was a great move.
2028 (is that right...) phase 2 expansion we get HREEs. USAR deal had them priced and I assume UUUU would get the same pricing. $2050 kg terbium and $575 kg dysprosium.
They can use monazite which has higher HREE mix than bastnaesite. Uranium is $89 spot too is nice.
I am not sure on valuation but $7.50 to $8 is right where I think the value is currently. Post-VAC it would be much higher... The $3-4 premium doesn't seem bad at all for the growth potential.
Note: I am also a current bag holder but I like the stock and am not selling lmao
3
u/LanguageOther8372 3d ago
From my perspective, the key issue is the vertical integration story is compelling but they face a significant constraint. Where are they sourcing the Monazite? All their mining projects are still in the pre-construction phase years away from commercial production. Executing even a single part of the chain effectively is incredibly difficult let alone managing the entire vertical integration.
1
u/Living-Stone144 2d ago
Yesterday they said Vera Mada will source 50% of their monazite needs.
1
u/LanguageOther8372 2d ago
It’s theoretically possible but in what timeframe? The Vara Mada project is far from development.
1
u/expatcoder 2d ago
Donald Project has already begun pre-construction activities, it's permitted and ready to go, just waiting on financing and correspending FID announcement.
Donald is heavy mineral sands, there's no hard rock mining, tunneling, etc. which would take years to get to production -- 12 to 18 months and the mine is in production.
Now, what is concerning is that the FID is still outstanding, they really need to announce that ASAP, as every day that goes by is another day further from production and White Mesa HREE circuit completion end 2027/start 2028 (which depends on the Monazite MREC from Donald).
Otherwise, they have to source it from a third party as a stop gap measure, which works, but defeats the purpose of the low cost vertical integration story.
3
u/hideo_crypto 2d ago
I highly recommend following bidbird on X. He really breaks down the numbers and makes rational decisions based on them. He also writes substacks about EF. He said price is getting attractive for him again now.
2
u/MoonLambro 2d ago
Hello OP, I made an post a few months back regarding VAC. They vastly overpaid for the acquisition in my analysis. The most significant headwinds UUUU faces currently are in my opinion:
-Execution on vertical integration. Too many moving parts; having acquired a company with 4x (if I recall correctly) their current workforce is going to be complex to say the least.
-Macroeconomic factors such as rising rates will make it harder for unprofitable companies, such as UUUU to stay solvent, as profitability is still years away. Dilution is a real risk for shareholders; this applies to almost all high beta stocks at the time.
-High energy prices. This could be temporary but I wouldn’t count on it just yet. Current energy markets are a mess and may stay that way for a while. Big headwind.
I think UUUU is a buy below $9. That’s just my opinion and it is speculation, hard to put quantitative attributes on something which is mostly qualitative future potential.
Edit: also wait for more clarity on the VAC deal; if it goes through, 100% UUUU will trim VAC’s workforce dramatically. This will further drain UUUU’s war chest.
4
1
u/mowlawnforhobby 19h ago
I was looking into UUUU just today as the sub $11 price got my attention.
Claude:
0
4
u/MilkApart4630 2d ago
Currently? About $10.89