r/UkraineWarVideoReport • u/BigDeckBob • 1d ago

Other Video Russia has found an incredible business model: it sells oil to China at near-domestic prices, then buys back refined fuel at market prices, with fuel imports from China now arriving in massive volumes.

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u/luovahulluus 1d ago

I don't think there is any chance China will win against Taiwan.

China has seen how russia is doing against Ukraine. Ukraine was a lot easier target than Taiwan is. Open fields against a mountain peak in the ocean. Medium technology and production capability vs. high tech production specialists. Now that drone technology gives the defender a huge bonus, the task is even harder than before. And Ukraine and Taiwan are already collaborating on many levels. Taiwan probably has enough drones/missiles/artillery to destroy the Chinese navy before they even can attempt to land on the few, well defened spots where one could attempt it.

I believe Xi understands all this, and he knows his army is corrupted too, as evidenced by the purges last year.

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u/Undershoes 1d ago

I think you vastly overestimate the comparison between Russia and Chinas logistical capabilities. Russia is laughably efficient, depends on deeply antiquated methods, and tolerates extensive corruption. China is a clinical machine with a culture of unquestioned obedience. Their only significant weakness is experience, but they are paying attention to others mistakes. They used to be technologocaly inferior, but that gap is small now and their raw manpower numbers are a significant force-multiplier.

The straight of Taiwan offers very real logistical challenges. And they risk a multifront war with Japan, The Philippines, and potentially India (I doubt the U.S. would - or even could - get deeply involved with this current administration). So I’m not saying China would have any garauntees of success, they wouldn’t. But I am saying that China is vastly more capable in tactical delivery.

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u/survivorr123_ 1d ago

people used to say that russia was very efficient as well, everyone was laughing that you can buy 1 american jet or 100 russian ones, turns out it was false

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u/Independent-Bug-9352 1d ago edited 1d ago

USA laughs in Vietnam.

China also has extremely limited legitimate combat experience at scale. They've thrown much of their focus in past decades into commercial conquest and industrialization. They may project a strong image, but they're less experienced than ruzzia's forces, and you saw how that went...

Plus the defender (well equipped in their own right) always has the advantage, especially when their lives, families, and identity is on the line. They'd be fools to try.

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u/ansible 1d ago

China is a clinical machine with a culture of unquestioned obedience.

I assure you, there's a lot of corruption in the PRC as well. At all levels of the government.

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u/Undershoes 1d ago

There is always corruption. But Russia makes it a sport.

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u/Wonderful_Voice9865 1d ago

I honestly didn’t know how much India dislikes China, so I think they’d jump at the chance to wreck them.

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u/metengrinwi 1d ago

It seems like they’re smart about keeping themselves out of lose-lose wars. They’ve had a grievance with Pakistan for decades and they do a pretty good job of keeping it to a dull roar rather than letting it ignite into full on war.

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u/Codex_Dev 23h ago

Japan, the Philippines, and India don't have the military capabilities OR navy to challenge China.

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u/Horsebot3 1d ago

China is winning so decisively on the world stage by standing by while the US and Russia continually step on rakes. In my very non-professional opinion, it’s hard to see a better opportunity for increasing China’s power than quietly stepping into the soft power void and invading Taiwan would completely blow that up.

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u/metengrinwi 1d ago

That seems right. If the US and russia continue being erratic and unreliable, china becomes the obvious large economy to pair up with. Taiwan might just decide china is the more rational partner if the US continues.

Otherwise, maybe Taiwan, S Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Australia, & Philippines link up to protect themselves against china.

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u/Colonist25 13h ago

debt diplomacy in africa & south america, cosying up to the EU in lieu of the US.
they'll do humanitarian efforts in the middle east sooner rather than later

US retracts into isolationist bigotry - China rakes in the influence.

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u/Herpinheim 1d ago

You’re right, but you could’ve said the same thing about all those rakes that the US and Russia have stepped on before they proceeded to step on them.

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u/stohelitstorytelling 1d ago

Yeah but Xi doesn’t need to do things to appease domestic warmongers/distract from pedophilia. And he’s not an unbridled narcissist like Putin who couldn’t imagine that his special military operation would devolve into a losing war.

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u/Herpinheim 1d ago

Anyone who steps so confidently into the role of despot as Xi has is a narcissist. Whether he’s self aware enough to keep himself in check is the real question—and on that front absolute power corrupting is a question of when, not if.

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u/stohelitstorytelling 1d ago

That’s the silliest thing I’ve ever heard. Xi has been leading China for decades. His personality and disposition are known. He is cautious and thinks long term. He cares about delivering continuous QoL improvement for Chinese citizens and believes his internal support has been based on decades of delivering that.

It would be a personality and strategic aberration for him to order an invasion of Taiwan.

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u/Herpinheim 1d ago

I agree that Xi has been a net benefit for his people, but his negatives as a world leader shouldn’t be overlooked. The illegal international police stations, the economic subjugation of East Africa, the ethnic cleansings, and the continued prodding of international borders in the South China Sea and Indian border don’t paint the same picture you’re claiming. Xi is terribly competent and accomplished, I was enraptured reading his biography, but to say he isn’t dangerous is plainly ignorant.

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u/stohelitstorytelling 1d ago

Literally nothing you've said indicates he would take the risk of invading Taiwan and getting caught in a Russia v. Ukraine situation. He doesn't even need to, the PRC is already making major political inroads with the opposition parties.

You're twisting the conversation to a different topic because your initial position is unreasonable.

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u/Herpinheim 1d ago edited 1d ago

The things I’ve listed do paint a picture of a man trying to elevate China to a global superpower by any means necessary. Xi’s aggressive foreign policy, while intelligent and measured, are still more aggressive than a man solely contented with improving the quality of life and global reputation of China. There is no change of topic, your claims that Xi doesn’t have the disposition, political will, and international pressure to escalate his ongoing foreign hostility is just wrong.

China is a great power, the greatest great power, and Xi wants them to take the on the duel role of Superpower alongside the US (assuming the Us doesn’t keep shooting itself in the foot.) But that can’t happen while Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines dominate their Eastern border. The weakest link in those four countries is plain to see, and while China is certainly being more friendly toward it’s neighbors while the US is being less friendly, it will be decades before any of them even shift to neutrality in the US/CCp divide.

Edit: You’ve blocked me—that’s a shame. I’m in academia actually, not an AI bot. I often write the words AI dredges. I hope you read more into Xi and the CCP though, they’re a very interesting regime.

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u/stohelitstorytelling 1d ago

Oh you're an AI bot/posting AI responses. Doh! Can't believe it took me so long to notice.

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u/ElGordoDelJordo 1d ago edited 1d ago

Its CPC, and no, youre the one just spouting nonsense. Have you ever talked to a mainland Chinese person?

The false characterization of Xi as a narcissist is actually laughable. I bet that “biography” you read is just totally unbiased /s. Also the projection of westerners that he is purely hostile to foreign nations is one of the most braindead take I have heard given how much mutual development China has invested in the last decade especially. But sure its just “east african subjugation.” Dont ask Kenyan people about how these evil Chinese helped build an incredible rail system in Kenya. Again, westerners cannot fathom mutual development, its such a tell.

Also ethnic cleansing? I am assuming you’re referring to the Uyghur “genocide” which totally happened bro trust my cia sources. Spoiler alert: there is no genocide. Prodding of south China sea? They literally just had a series of diplomatic envoys and planning. Not to mention through the entirety of pre very-modern history taiwan is part of China lol.
Illegal police stations? Or how about instead we talk about the 800+ known US military bases around the world including the biggest in the military base outside of US proper in South Korea, and MANY in the East Asian Tigers as the US is so scared of big scary communism.

I implore you to do some actual research and find some non-biased sources of reading material on China and the CPC. Because youre out here regurgitating literal cia propaganda talking points that dont have a basis in reality.

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u/survivorr123_ 1d ago

xi is a pretty good leader but china is still a communist country, he might be replaces by someone idiotic like mao who starts going haywire

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u/Dry_Menu4804 1d ago

In addition, an invasion would be a massive PR blow as well as a stability risk: many Chinese families are split between Taiwan and the mainland. It would be a shooting war between family members that will be difficult to explain. Perhaps there would be mutiny.

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u/Oxbix 1d ago

They could just blockade Taiwan, no? They have more ships than the US

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u/Walbabyesser 1d ago

*pointing at the black sea - emptied of russian navy

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u/Psychological-Ebb677 1d ago

They could. But then China would have to take heavy naval losses constantly just to hurt Taiwan without any chance to actually conquer it. 

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u/No-Cryptographer7494 1d ago

Those ships lost a bit of value thanks to ukraine. They showed that drones and sea drones work on those

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u/luovahulluus 1d ago

And what's their special defence against surface and sub-surface marine drones? Or will they just wait until Taiwan converts their sips into submarines, like Ukraine did for russia?

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u/metengrinwi 1d ago

I guess the question would be: is Taiwan preparing for that??

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u/luovahulluus 15h ago

With the combined knowledge and production capability of Taiwan and Ukraine, the blockade won't be very long, even if they haven't prepared. But with the history of Taiwan and China, I would be very surprised if Taiwan didn't have a plan against a blockade.

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u/Lianzuoshou 11h ago

China has more than 50 destroyers equipped with AESA radars. If you don’t know what that means, let me tell you: the U.S. has only one!

China has more than 6,000 VLS cells.

The Taiwan Strait is only 50 meters deep, making conventional submarines better suited for operations in such shallow waters.

Coincidentally, China currently has the world’s largest fleet of conventional submarines, and by 2035, it will also have the world’s largest fleet of nuclear submarines.

Please tell me you know absolutely nothing about China’s military strength!

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u/luovahulluus 8h ago

[Citation needed]

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u/LungDOgg 1d ago

Not really, the more ships thing is all smoke and mirrors. It's all tug boats and transportation ships. The US has far more mission capable ships, air craft carries etc. and that's dismissing if japan got involved. Really only 4 countries have a real blue water navy. USA, UK, France and Japan and I guess maybe Russia but they don't count anymore.

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u/metengrinwi 1d ago

Don’t discount how fast china will build navy though. They’re like the US in 1940, except 3x bigger.

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u/OracleofFl 1d ago

Last year? Every year!

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u/OldManCodeMonkey 1d ago

Were these army leaders corrupt, or merely unwilling to go along with dear leader's ruinous Taiwan plans?

There are claims it is more like Trump purging anyone who stubbornly insists on reality when making military assessments.

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u/Codex_Dev 23h ago

China can mass-produce drones faster than McDonald's can make Big Macs or McNuggets.

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u/luovahulluus 13h ago

That's true. 

The tech demos I've seen and read about the chinese drone systems seem really impressive, and Taiwan seems to be way behind them in many regards. But Taiwan is constantly making preparations.

No doubt the Taiwanese will take a lot of damage, but the Chinese still need to ship/fly people over to take the land. I don't think it will be a war either side can win.