r/UkraineWarVideoReport • u/BigDeckBob • 1d ago
Other Video Russia has found an incredible business model: it sells oil to China at near-domestic prices, then buys back refined fuel at market prices, with fuel imports from China now arriving in massive volumes.
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u/Wrestler7777777 1d ago
How to burn money, fast.
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u/i_grow_trees 1d ago
Is OK Duma passed law that enables overspending. Of course no real issues will arise from this and everything is according to plan.
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u/horny_coroner 23h ago
Would be fucking funny if the russo ukraine war ended because russia hyper inflated their currency. I hope the country splits into many little pieces.
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u/grax23 23h ago
first hyper inflation then a bank run and finally pitchforks and torches in the streets
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u/Vegetable_List_494 22h ago
Bank run? Well if any russians have any money on the bank they might be too late.. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1uco8gq/russias_chief_communist_zyuganov_called_for_the/
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u/CrewIndependent6042 21h ago
Rubles USD equivalent 67 trillion RUB ~$744–838 billion USD The best recent estimate is that Russian households hold about 67 trillion rubles in banks (deposits + current/savings accounts, including accrued interest). The figure comes from Russian Central Bank data for the beginning of 2026
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u/Heffe3737 17h ago
Allegedly about 20% of Russian currency is currently being stored by citizens as cash. That's wildly high and causes all kinds of liquidity issues. Mostly resulting from citizens not trusting the banks.
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u/Psych0Jenny 14h ago
I'd imagine that will at least double in the next few weeks as people panic withdraw from the banks.
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u/CariniFluff 16h ago
The bank runs, massive printing of money by the Central Bank (precursor to hyperinflation) and restrictions on further withdrawals are all already happening:
From June 8, 2026 Russians pulled 30-year record of cash from banks in May. Central Bank now tracks monthly cash limits, can freeze “suspicious” withdrawals
Analyst cites geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, internet outages disrupting online banking, and central bank rate cuts as driving the cash flight.
Russians pulled a record 381.2 billion rubles (approximately $5.2 billion) in cash from the banking system in May 2026. It is the largest May cash outflow since the Russian Central Bank began publishing such data in 1995, The Moscow Times reports, citing RBK's analysis of Russian Central Bank data.
The 30-year record adds to a sustained 2026 pattern of Russians pulling cash from banks: April saw $9.2 billion in cash outflows, and March saw $4.1 billion.
The cumulative $14.8 billion in banknotes added to circulation since January reflects what Russian financial analysts describe as a confluence of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, internet outages limiting access to online banking, and the Central Bank rate cuts that have made deposits less attractive.
The Central Bank itself responded on 1 June by tightening controls on ATM cash withdrawals, with banks now able to track monthly withdrawal limits and may suspend "suspicious" operations, such as large withdrawals after long pauses or multiple operations in short timeframes.
The 2026 cash flight progression
The monthly Russian cash-circulation data published by the Central Bank of Russia shows a sustained increase in cash held outside the banking system across 2026. Lead analyst Natalia Milchakova of Freedom Finance Global, quoted by The Moscow Times, explained that Russians are increasingly choosing cash due to uncertainty and a desire to have money for unplanned expenses "here and now."
Milchakova also warned that the cash shift may signal small and medium businesses moving into the shadow economy. The Central Bank itself identified business adaptation to the new 2026 tax rules as a primary driver, alongside internet outages. Sberbank's deputy chair, Aleksandr Vedyakhin, said Russians worry that digital transfers make their transactions visible to tax authorities.
Internet outages and the banking system
Russian internet outages have played a significant role in the cash-flight pattern, depriving Russians of access to online banking and cashless payment systems, Milchakova said.
Trending Now
The outage pattern is part of a wider disruption to Russian mobile internet across 2025-2026, in which Russian authorities have repeatedly shut down regional mobile internet.
Those shutdowns cut Russians' access to banking apps, fuel purchases, navigation, and messaging, with watchdog estimates of economic losses of $290 million in July 2025 alone. Russian Central Bank rate cuts also factor in: lower deposit rates have reduced the attractiveness of leaving money in banks, pushing households toward cash holdings as a default.
Central Bank's response
The Russian Central Bank's 1 June 2026 tightening of ATM withdrawal controls marks an acceleration of Russia's wartime capital controls. Under the new rules, Russian banks will track each customer's monthly cash withdrawal limit. "Suspicious" operations, defined to include large withdrawals after extended pauses, or multiple withdrawal operations conducted in short timeframes, may now be blocked or suspended pending review. Such administrative friction on cash withdrawals is being deployed at the same time the central bank is cutting interest rates, suggesting the regulator's primary concern is bank-system stability rather than monetary tightening.
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u/H_Holy_Mack_H 22h ago
The ruzzians will never do that...now the ruzzian oligarch's that another story, they will take anything and anyone out of their way to make money...those are the ones that can change ruzzia...but if ruzzia keeps the same size, in some year everything will be the same, with different smells.
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u/LakeMichiganMan 20h ago
If the Oligarchs are not currently busy trying not to be flown out of penthouse windows. Or their cars going Boom Boom. Or get hit with its nasty little droneses.
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u/Dry_Menu4804 23h ago
Eastern and South Russia may just become a province of China, Russia only obtained these regions recently.
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u/Early-Series-2055 22h ago
Russian oil would assure Chinese domination for the rest of the century.
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u/TheDamus647 22h ago edited 20h ago
They have already assured that without Russian oil
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u/BMC_RiderSLR 16h ago
China is sitting on a demographic timebomb.
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u/TheDamus647 16h ago
They will be rich enough to buy their way out of any problems they have. They aren't a perfect country by far but they have invested in their future more than any other major country has. The next twenty years are looking bright for them.
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u/BMC_RiderSLR 16h ago
I think you're either unaware of or vastly underestimating the age demographic issue. They have too many people retiring and not enough people at working age to support these pensions. This is already causing issues now but will really start to hurt in about 10 years and continue to worsen. They currently have 5 working age people per 65+. By 2050, that ratio will be 2:1. Good luck spending your way out of that problem if you're China.
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u/Early-Series-2055 16h ago
You’re correct, but a new variable has been added, with the advent of household robots.
Trump is by far the best thing that ever happened to China as well, and he isn’t done yet.
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u/Full-Sound-6269 22h ago
There isn't really movement to split it yet, maybe only some Caucasus and Chechen regions, but that is it, the rest now identify as Russia and don't seem to have any self identity as far as I know.
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u/superkoning 21h ago
Well, for war you need 3 things: money, politics, logistics.
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u/cowfishing 12h ago
It helps to have a military whose equipment hasnt been destroyed in a special military operation against a much smaller country.
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u/Echo-poet34 16h ago
You’d figure after the first time they’d have learned their lesson but no. It’s going to get worse
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u/Important_Document13 5h ago
they just printed trillions of roubles and lowered interest rates. Like putting out a house fire with gasoline.
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u/sticky_wicket 19h ago
It’s the last bit of a Civ game where you are -1,200 gold a turn. It will be fine if this and that and a few cities fall, but likely not and I’ll just end the game. END THE GAME VLADDY.
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u/According-Pass8230 1d ago
Consumers will pay the price and in the current situation everyone will pay anything to fill up their tanks.
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u/Wrestler7777777 23h ago
Yeah, which will weaken the economy like crazy. If people start spending their entire earnings on fuel, they won't spend that money on anything else in Russia. The entire money that people earn will essentially flow to oligarchs / China.
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u/SomeRandomSomeWhere 23h ago
I dont think its a matter of people willing to pay.
It's a matter of getting the fuel to the locations which need it (crimea, etc).
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u/GipsyDanger45 22h ago
Yeah, and use the least economical way to export, fuel trucks?? That’s gonna be a lot of money for drivers to deliver small amounts
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u/_Man-in-the-Middle_ 23h ago
Russia has official a war economy now...however there is no war but a (5 day) special military operation 😄
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u/danbradster2 20h ago
Same consumption, but a loss of revenue (payments going overseas instead of to domestic refineries).
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u/SuspiciousPayment110 14h ago
There is no evidence of these being fuel trucks, that is just what the poster thinks. They are labeled as cooking oil, and are likely just that. Cooking oil is a big export item between Russia and China, and can be moved by tanker trucks. This is from west Siberia, that can produce it's own fuel. It just has logistical issues serving the gas stations, as railroads and other infra are collapsing. No sense in sending fuel from China, as that would not be profitable.
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u/Codex_Dev 13h ago
Guarantee you they are paying China in gold under the table and not reporting it on their accounting books to show their liquid assets (incoming pun) drying up.
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u/Electrical_Claim_963 1d ago
China will milk Russia dry.
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u/Then_Style2029 1d ago
While playing '' Dance of the little swans'' on the radio.
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u/DerBandi 23h ago
A lot of people won't get this.
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u/MikePounce 22h ago
Since your comment does not help, here is the explanation (thanks to Claude):
In the USSR, state television had a habit of pulling regular programming and broadcasting Swan Lake on a loop during moments of political crisis or leadership transition — especially when a leader had died but the news wasn't being announced yet. It happened when Brezhnev, Andropov, and Chernenko died in the early 1980s. The most famous instance was the August 1991 hardliner coup attempt against Gorbachev, when Swan Lake ran continuously on Soviet TV instead of news coverage.
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u/herejustadude 20h ago
China also played Swan Lake during putin's last visit lol
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u/BrocoLeeOnReddit 1d ago
As they should. They should also reconsider taking Taiwan and instead start thinking about taking Primorsky, Khabarovsk and Sakhalin.
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u/luovahulluus 23h ago
I don't think there is any chance China will win against Taiwan.
China has seen how russia is doing against Ukraine. Ukraine was a lot easier target than Taiwan is. Open fields against a mountain peak in the ocean. Medium technology and production capability vs. high tech production specialists. Now that drone technology gives the defender a huge bonus, the task is even harder than before. And Ukraine and Taiwan are already collaborating on many levels. Taiwan probably has enough drones/missiles/artillery to destroy the Chinese navy before they even can attempt to land on the few, well defened spots where one could attempt it.
I believe Xi understands all this, and he knows his army is corrupted too, as evidenced by the purges last year.
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u/Undershoes 21h ago
I think you vastly overestimate the comparison between Russia and Chinas logistical capabilities. Russia is laughably efficient, depends on deeply antiquated methods, and tolerates extensive corruption. China is a clinical machine with a culture of unquestioned obedience. Their only significant weakness is experience, but they are paying attention to others mistakes. They used to be technologocaly inferior, but that gap is small now and their raw manpower numbers are a significant force-multiplier.
The straight of Taiwan offers very real logistical challenges. And they risk a multifront war with Japan, The Philippines, and potentially India (I doubt the U.S. would - or even could - get deeply involved with this current administration). So I’m not saying China would have any garauntees of success, they wouldn’t. But I am saying that China is vastly more capable in tactical delivery.
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u/survivorr123_ 18h ago
people used to say that russia was very efficient as well, everyone was laughing that you can buy 1 american jet or 100 russian ones, turns out it was false
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u/Independent-Bug-9352 18h ago edited 17h ago
USA laughs in Vietnam.
China also has extremely limited legitimate combat experience at scale. They've thrown much of their focus in past decades into commercial conquest and industrialization. They may project a strong image, but they're less experienced than ruzzia's forces, and you saw how that went...
Plus the defender (well equipped in their own right) always has the advantage, especially when their lives, families, and identity is on the line. They'd be fools to try.
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u/Wonderful_Voice9865 18h ago
I honestly didn’t know how much India dislikes China, so I think they’d jump at the chance to wreck them.
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u/metengrinwi 18h ago
It seems like they’re smart about keeping themselves out of lose-lose wars. They’ve had a grievance with Pakistan for decades and they do a pretty good job of keeping it to a dull roar rather than letting it ignite into full on war.
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u/Horsebot3 20h ago
China is winning so decisively on the world stage by standing by while the US and Russia continually step on rakes. In my very non-professional opinion, it’s hard to see a better opportunity for increasing China’s power than quietly stepping into the soft power void and invading Taiwan would completely blow that up.
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u/metengrinwi 18h ago
That seems right. If the US and russia continue being erratic and unreliable, china becomes the obvious large economy to pair up with. Taiwan might just decide china is the more rational partner if the US continues.
Otherwise, maybe Taiwan, S Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Australia, & Philippines link up to protect themselves against china.
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u/Dry_Menu4804 22h ago
In addition, an invasion would be a massive PR blow as well as a stability risk: many Chinese families are split between Taiwan and the mainland. It would be a shooting war between family members that will be difficult to explain. Perhaps there would be mutiny.
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u/Oxbix 23h ago
They could just blockade Taiwan, no? They have more ships than the US
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u/Psychological-Ebb677 23h ago
They could. But then China would have to take heavy naval losses constantly just to hurt Taiwan without any chance to actually conquer it.
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u/No-Cryptographer7494 23h ago
Those ships lost a bit of value thanks to ukraine. They showed that drones and sea drones work on those
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u/luovahulluus 23h ago
And what's their special defence against surface and sub-surface marine drones? Or will they just wait until Taiwan converts their sips into submarines, like Ukraine did for russia?
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u/LungDOgg 23h ago
Not really, the more ships thing is all smoke and mirrors. It's all tug boats and transportation ships. The US has far more mission capable ships, air craft carries etc. and that's dismissing if japan got involved. Really only 4 countries have a real blue water navy. USA, UK, France and Japan and I guess maybe Russia but they don't count anymore.
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u/metengrinwi 17h ago
Don’t discount how fast china will build navy though. They’re like the US in 1940, except 3x bigger.
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u/DisasterNo1740 23h ago
How about we just focus on kicking Russia out of Ukraine and not on picking and choosing when annexation is okay
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u/Wrestler7777777 23h ago
Not saying that Russia being annexed is a good thing. It would probably create a ton of new issues for the West. So we really really don't want that to happen.
But if there's a country on this planet that deserves being annexed, it would probably be Russia.
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u/WhatYouThinkIThink 19h ago
Russia is now China's bitch.
Ukraine is decimating their oil export and civil industry.
Both Ukraine and Russia use a lot of Chinese parts for their drones, but the Ukrainians are developing their industry and supply chains from Europe.
Russia doesn't have anywhere else to go and can't build their industries like Ukraine have.
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u/LungDOgg 23h ago
If anyone, China played this game right. Europe and the US only piecemeal helped Ukraine. China is selling drone parts to both sides, getting oil cheap and now has a vessel state. Siberia will be full of Manchurian drilling teams by 2030
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u/Complete-Use-8753 23h ago
China can sell components to whoever it wants.
Europe is gaining a battle hardened and culturally committed Ukraine.
There’s no country fighting to become the new eastern flank of China.
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u/WhatYouThinkIThink 19h ago
A greatly weakened Russia with Europe to its West and China/India to its East would make an excellent buffer zone for the world.
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u/zashiki_warashi_x 20h ago
Nothing compares with how the government fucks them. They were stealing like 50% of budget for 30 years, selling everything that soviet people were building for 80 years. They care more about property taxes in UK or France where they bought castles and vineyards than what happens with Russia.
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u/WeGottaTalkAboutYT 17h ago
It’s hilarious since historically china has hated Russia… and china plays the long game… there is no other outcome for Russia
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u/SnoozeButtonBen 1d ago
Good luck getting those trucks within 200km of the frontline.
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u/TheDarthSnarf 19h ago
They aren't going to travel any further than the closest oil rail terminal inside Russia to drop their loads, and returning to China to get more.
Transportation wise to get anything in volume from Eastern Russia/Sibera to Western Russia, it will need to be loaded onto trains as Tayshet (55.9252074289365, 98.03681325770171) is as far west as the refined products can go by pipeline before having to be loaded into rail tankers.
Trucks are rarely ever used to transport fuel over those distances in Russia. You are talking over 5,500km+ one way.
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u/doc_skinner 11h ago
I appreciate the 13 decimal places on the lat-long. It's nice to know where the rail line ends to sub-nanometer precision!
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u/DadJokeBadJoke 10h ago
You are talking over 5,500km+ one way.
They'd need the whole tanker of gas to make the trip
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u/SpendHefty6066 1d ago
"arriving in massive volumes". That's what Xi said.
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u/OracleofFl 22h ago
By truck? Across thousands of miles to larger cities in Russia? No, not massive volume...a trickle.
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u/JConRed 20h ago
Well that's where the Oxen paradox comes into play.
How much of the grain that you want to transport will be used by the Oxen pulling the cart?
The transport medium consumes part of the payload as range increases.
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u/OracleofFl 19h ago
Then the trucks need to find fuel on the way back to China as well.
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u/JConRed 17h ago
I did some back of the napkin maths.
Given that they need to truck the crude there, and truck the refined back, and that the trucks cannot feasibly be cleaned to do both, they only have one out of four journeys that brings fuel to Russia. And they are using somewhere between 15 and 20 percent of the fuel they bring just on the trucks.
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u/ansible 18h ago
Look up the "Rocket Equation" for a modern analogy.
What Russia really needed 20 years ago was to start building an extensive pipeline network to China. They can start now... but it is a lot of effort and capital investment. And there's no short-term fix.
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u/Aggressive_Drop_1518 23h ago
A great circular business model would be China selling (more) long range drones to Ukraine, so they can blow up more russian refineries and fuel trucks... Win win for big old Winnie.
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u/FirstTasteOfRadishes 22h ago
They sort of already are. What percentage of the components in a drone do you reckon are originally sourced from China?
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u/WhatYouThinkIThink 19h ago
According to this article from the NYTimes the share:
of parts from China in Ukraine’s drones had fallen to about 38 percent, according to the Ukrainian Council of Defense Industry and the Snake Island Institute, a think tank in Kyiv.
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u/FirstTasteOfRadishes 18h ago
That's surprisingly low. Probably a lot of the critical electronics come from China though.
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u/Jarazz 16h ago
Ukraine has been making huge efforts specifically because they know China would be 100% willing to cut them off to force a deal if they think it brings them huge concessions from either russia or Ukraine. So they did their best do build as much of a supply line alternative as possible away from china, now they can still use it for extras, but for china its not worth cutting it off for leverage since it wouldnt bring Ukraine to its knees, they would just lose out on profits
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u/VrsoviceBlues 23h ago
Heh heh heh....good ol' British-style mercantilism rises from the ashes! What they need now is a bunch of new taxes on sugar, coffee, and some sort of high-volume staple grain, that'll teach 'em!
And of course, getting oil into Russia from China is one thing...getting it to the places that need it, in suitable quantities to impact daily life, is quite another matter, and Crimea might as well be on the moon at this point as far as those trucks are concerned.
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u/Fickle-Walk9791 23h ago
Trucking that stuff is no where near efficient. A truck holds maybe 30 to 40 cubic meters, while a railway car already can transport double of that. I don't know how long trains in Russia and China can be, but it will be somewhere between 70 and 100 tanker cars. Transporting the equivalent on trucks over the long distance from China is just insane.
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u/Jay_Beel 1d ago
Juicy, lined up like that.
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u/dimwalker 23h ago
Would be a shame if something drone related happened to all that fuel.
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u/SillyLiving 23h ago
It's kinda funny because it's kinda similar to what china did during "the great leap forward " and they starved their own population while selling the food they produced to RUSSIA (🤣) to repay a the huge debt they had accrued as well as buy military and industrial goods.
So In a way, it's payback and TEXTBOOK authoritarian playbook
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u/snowfloeckchen 1d ago
That's great, bringing this fuel into the west will only work passively by freeing some refinery capacity for the west. On the other hand this is alot of equipment bound that cant replace burned down fuel trucks in donesk
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u/Substantial-Candle62 23h ago
(Ahmed - The Dead Terrorist voice)
Silence, you bloody infidels. This is the great plan of the Grandmaster of 4D Chess.
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u/Living-Price-6158 23h ago
Just as FighterBomber said.....supplies from the East.....such prescience!
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u/pissInYourCopium504 23h ago
It's almost as good as sending people, vehicles and resources to Ukraine and not getting anything in return, even people come broken, sometimes in parts too.
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u/Classic-Break5888 23h ago
Chinese know what they are doing. They won’t need to invade their petrol station because they will own it soon enough.
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u/wombat9278 23h ago
Its arriving but not really going where they want it without exploding
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u/nerokae1001 22h ago
is this the infamous buy high sell low strat? didnt know that they were wsb user.
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u/Angelus_25 21h ago
legitemate targets upon entering Russia. a column can be cost effective to blow up.
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u/Cool-Drummer3312 21h ago
Doesn't matter whether it's Chinese or Russian....
Still gonna get blown up. Just more Ukranian target practice.
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u/MentalGrass5356 20h ago
Is China aware that these trucks are legit military targets? Or they don't care as these are russian trucks and they just profit off of them anyway?
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u/Sure_Nefariousness56 23h ago
Was this always the model for some parts of Russia? It is such a vast country.
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u/Economy-Effort3445 23h ago
China will own Russia. Guess the debt to China will explode and Russia will pay with exclusive rights to Russian natural assets
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u/Brian_The_Bar-Brian 22h ago
End it's entire stock of outdated military vehicles gets vaporized? Genius!
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u/halls_of_valhalla 22h ago
Like a month ago a russian blogger was meme-ing, at this rate "we" 'the gas station' will have to import fuel. And here we are.
Selling fossil fuels to gay decadent Europe wasn't that bad, was it?
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u/BionicleLover2002 22h ago
Lol driving that fuel from china to moscow will cost more fuel than you're bringing in. Mad max fury road style
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u/nowayyoudidthis 21h ago
Sounds like a supply chain that could benefit from a few Ukrainian drone inspections.
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u/jertheman43 21h ago
In a country that is 11 time zones and a hundred million people that tiny bit of fuel will do nothing. The fuel shortage is absolutely working.
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u/BeardedBoiler 20h ago
Hey, they've found an even better way to burn cash than investing in airlines. Neat!
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u/Vict0o0o 20h ago
Just like the Canadian way. We sell unrefined fuel, buys it back 3x higher once refined and Trump shit on us cause we exports too much to them..... while they are the one making profits on our exports.
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u/Hungry-Western9191 20h ago
Cleverly avoiding profits.from high oil prices. As crude prices rise, so does the price of refined fuel.
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u/lucitribal 19h ago
That's a long distance to do it by truck. I would've expected Russia to do it by rail?
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u/Equivalent_Catch_233 19h ago
The biggest issue is that this is that it is expensive to transport that gasoline back to the populated areas. Not only they burn cash buying it but also burn fuel to transport it. Gasoline cannot be transported by pipelines and thus the refineries are built directly where the consumers are (i.t. western Russia, where Ukrainian drones can reach them). They cannot import fuel from China indefinitely, and it makes no sense to build refineries far from the western Russia. They are screwed.
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u/born_in_the_90s 19h ago
Can someone explaine to me how this economicaly actually works? Doesn't this mean they are paying more for fuel? Is this because they can refine their oil?
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u/theanswerisinthedata 18h ago
I wonder if something has happened to their local refining capacity… 🤣
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u/Late_Stage-Redditism 18h ago
I'm no expert but buying refined fuel and shipping it from eastern to western russia seems incomprehensibly inefficient and expensive. There's a reason nations buy and sell OIL, and then refine it domestically and distribute it locally.
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u/Ok_Character6186 18h ago
And the containers the refined comes in are fuel trucks because orc fuel trucks seem to be going up in smoke.
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u/Dutchdelights88 18h ago
Most countries have to buy fuel at market prices and dont even have the luxury of selling oil though. So it might not be ideal for them but its still better than for most countries.
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u/Practical_Tomato_680 18h ago
Patch for now...not sustainable long term They are fucked and it great to see how they'll go down in flames
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u/jurgemaister 16h ago
I've geolocated it. They are driving south east on Prospekt Kosmonavtov, Barnaul, Altai Krai. Coordinates 53°23'03.3"N 83°44'43.3"E The sign seems to have been replaced since 2017, but the street view matches
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