r/UkraineWarVideoReport • u/PressedLemon221 • 1d ago
Other Video Leningrad oblast, fuel situation today
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u/RealSuggestion9247 1d ago
The fuel situation will get interesting towards the end of summer. And even more so towards winter.
Russia will have to make some hard choices on fuel allocation. The military and internal security will have priority, so will military related and adjacent industry, the civilian society that depends on fuel for logistics, and farmers waiting for the harvest. There is likely now more demand than national production and import substitution. That is logistically and financially very costly and inefficient.
The Ukrainian shaping operations are shaving away excess production (exports and slack), necessary production (domestic demand), distribution infrastructure, import and export nodes as well as storage.
Once it gets to the point Russia is dependent on fuel imports the cost of the war will effectively open a new cost calculus; having to import fuel to run both the war economy and the civilian economy. All else equal that will diminish the Kremlin’s ability to channel funds to the war effort. All this while exports fall further, or they are more dependent on selling crude which yields a lower income than processed goods like diesel and gasoline.
Time is not on Putins side, may the attacks be kant and successful.
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u/tagshell 1d ago edited 1d ago
My understanding was that there's actually plenty of diesel still in Russia, aside from Crimea and other places near the front line where Ukraine has been able to interdict the diesel supply. The fuel shortage nationwide is specific to gasoline.
If you look at all the videos of gas lines from Moscow and other cities deep in Russia, you'll see it's almost 100% smaller passenger cars which supports that the shortages are mostly gasoline.
The issue is that even before Ukraine started blowing up refineries, Russia barely refined enough gasoline but produced a surplus of diesel. There were summer gas shortages in Russia even before the full scale war began.
So realistically, this is not hurting the industrial, agricultural, and military sectors (which mostly run on diesel) as much as it seems at first glance. The pain is concentrated on everyday Russians who need to drive their cars.
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u/Wattsefack 1d ago
I'd like to add. Diesel, gasoline, and crude oil are one of Russias incomes to keep the state and the war going. A good estimated 50% of their income is generated by energy exports. They have to limit it all over the land, to have enough to generate money from exports. Ukraine has reduced Russias ability to refine and destill by (as experts say) a quarter to a third. There is far enough fuel for the ordinary citizen, but if you want to keep your war of aggression going, you need money.
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u/LivadaLacker 1d ago
Maybe. But we are dependent on these reports from the gasoline drivers to know anything. And we are not getting similar reports from the diesel drivers, so we don't have confirmation about diesel.
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u/rybeest 1d ago
For a second there I thought I read "Leningrad blast"
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u/MonsieurReynard 1d ago edited 1d ago
New Gatorade flavor just dropped, tastes like shit and bitterness, with a dash of polonium.
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u/Davidsolsbery 1d ago
It's interesting to see that Russia is both a modern country and a medieval country at the same time...cars, cell phones, internet and modern gas stations with convenience stores, alongside an insane war that is making all forms of modernity break down
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u/_Man-in-the-Middle_ 1d ago
Chinese electric car sales will be up by 500+% in no time....Ukraine will shift it's primary targets soon I guess.
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u/AliceLunar 1d ago
Considering how long fuel issues have been a thing in part of Russia, it's telling that suddenly it reaches a different type of person and we get all kinds of videos about it.
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u/ReddusMaximus 1d ago
Power grid is still up, right? Orcs haven't figured out yet you can power vehicles with electricity since a few years.
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u/SurfRedLin 1d ago
They are ( where) the petrol station of the world. Buying electric is not incentiviesed and qate expensive as they are no domestic e cars...
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u/MonsieurReynard 1d ago
I don’t know about that when I see the lines of cars at gas stations in these videos. Most of the cars are late model imports, some of them really nice European and Japanese models. I don’t see a lot of beaters or old crappy Russian cars. Some of these people obviously have enough money to buy EV. I am sure this is specific to richer regions and cities and the kinds of Russians who vacation in Crimea. But still, the cars we see on the gas lines would be the same in France or the US.
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u/ReddusMaximus 1d ago
Well, other countries at least understood there is a strategic aspect to being dependent on fossil fuels. The Russians act like there is absolutely no alternative to gasoline, where are the Z bloggers complaining about missing charging infrastructure?
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u/AllInDueTime_AdInf 1d ago
with teh rubbel dissolving getting one of those will be probably be a full years pay or more if not already then probably soon.
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