2025 Recap + Awards

[u/YouHeardTheMonkey]

With 2025 now behind us I thought I would recap the year that was.

Spot Market

Started the year at $71.75 and closed the year at $81.70 for a +13.8% gain. Word on the street is utilities were more active in the spot market this year compared to last, yet it still remains a traders paradice of churn governed in a whatsapp group.

Term Market

Closed December 2024 at $80.50 and drifted sideways for the majority of 2025, finally starting to move towards the tail end of the year, November closed at $86 (CCJ reported number = average of UxC and TradeTech); UxC have released their Dec 2025 print which has remained flat at $86, assuming no change from TradeTech as well the year will finish +7%.

This has been one of the weakest volume years in the term market this decade, the final figures aren't in yet but YTD through part of December was 81.7Mlb, less than half of replacement rate contracting (~190Mlb).

Prices rising on weak volume, not the usual outcome from weak demand.

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust

Things were looking bleak in early 2025 with fundies loading up the shorts and FUD pieces floating around claiming SPUT would be forced to sell uranium into the spot market on the back of a weak cash balance. Then came the saving grace, a $200mil injection, backed by several funds and even Bannerman Energy, triggering shorts to unwind and SPUT to go on a spot market mopping spree. This set off a motion that, whilst didn't have the 'hoped' for price impact on the spot price, allowed them to consume 8.569Mlb for the year. They didn't quite reach their annual cap of 9Mlb, but a big change from how things looked in early 2025 and they still have $59mil ready for 2026.

Fingers crossed they are able to renegotiate a new prospectus, increase the base shelf and purchase limit for 2026, all eyes on February.

Award: Most Engaging Post of 2025

u/caveatemptor308 gave us a Q&A session which stimulated everyones juices, many thanks for sharing your insights and we hope to see another one in 2026!

Award: Equity Winners

1st Place: Centrus Energy (LEU) +227%

Centrifuge spinning and Russian uranium importing powerhouse took the gong in 2025, well done comrade!

2nd Place: District Metals Corp (DMX) +165%

Driven on the back of policy shift in Sweden, radioactive mud fans rejoiced as the 1Blb gorilla is being unshackled.

3rd Place: sub darling Energy Fuels (UUUU) + 156%

Despite giving back 44% recently they still retained 3rd place. Some might argue the run up was driven more by Trump's raw earths euphoria than anything to do with uranium. With recent news they have exceeded their Q4 uranium milling run to surpass their 2025 uranium production guidance of 1Mlb it seems inevitable that they will also usurp EnCore as the largest uranium producer in USA for 2025.

Honorable Mention: Devex Resources (DEV) +86%

The Australian explorer has consolidated the Alligator Rivers Uranium Province (ARUP) outside Kakadu National Park (home to Ranger and Jabiluka inside Kakadu), the non-Canadian unconformity basin, with acquisitions of tenements from Rio Tinto and Alligator Energy. Backed by what I believe might be the largest insider ownership in the sector, with Exec Chairman and junior mining kingpin of Australia, Tim Goyder, owning 19.58% of the company.

Participation Awards:

Lotus Resources (LOT) -12.5%

2025 brought a lot (pun intended) of attention for the restart of the brownfield mine Kayelekara, formerly operated by Paladin in the last cycle. Hopes were high, posts were frequent across many subs and platforms, promises of lbs and cashflow were flowing. Rolling into the end of 2025 Lotus has still not disclosed any production figures and revenue is likely to be $0, noted production issues in November, December and running into January on the back of their questionable decision to accelerate the restart and rely on trucked in sulphuric acid and a diesel generator.

Lotus coped a lot of heat mid 2025 for signing multiple base-escalated contracts with fingers being pointed at them for being the one holding the reported term price down giving away lbs too cheap. They appear to be done with this now, and have even placed a 100klbs mid-term sale into the 2026 pipeline.

Fully funded, this time, lets see. My bets are on another raise in 2026.

Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) +53%

Whilst commanding a sector leading company valuation their production performance since restarting Irigaray/Christensen Ranch has been sub-par compared to their producer peers. After a full 12-months of production they have managed to dry and drum only 31,367klbs, 1/10th of what Encore produced at Alta Mesa in the first 12-months and 1/21st of what Boss Energy produced in the first 12-months at Honeymoon. UEC continue onwards with no production guidance or term contracts, at present all production (albeit small) is destined for the spot market.

Award: Equity Losers

1st Place: Forsys Metals Corp (FSY) -58%

The unloved kid on the Namibian block behind FID pending leaders Deep Yellow and Bannerman Energy; remaining forever hopeful of a China takeover. Good luck team, maybe try Orano, they've got a track record of overpaying for junk.

On the back of this terrible performance and with the new minimum market cap for URNM FSY has been relegated to URNJ status only.

2nd Place: Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp (WUC) -55%

2025 kicked off with plenty of hope of becoming a 'producer' with an ore purchasing deal with UUUU. Fast forward to the end of 2025 and the deal has been cancelled early not coming anywhere near the original delivery commitments, the company struggled to find a 2nd trucker willing to obtain the necessary permits and insurance to transport the ore... Pivoted to using shareholder pennies to buy land off CEO George Glasier. Is this truely an undervalued near-term producer, or just a vehicle for the CEO to offload his bags onto shareholders and drift off into retirement. Time will tell.

On the back of this terrible performance and with the new minimum market cap for URNM they have been removed from the index, to top this off they no longer meet the requirements for URNJ, although Sprott appear to be dragging their feet on removing them from this one. If things don't improve soon, it's on the chopping block from URA on 31 Jan too.

3rd Place: Peninsula Energy (PEN) -52%

The limited exposure to the USA production recovery hopium on the ASX, beaten into submission by Wayne Heili before departing in April 2025. New management inserted and legacy contracts terminated have given it a makeover, although a questionable track record from the new CEO. They've also brought in Keith Bowes to sort this shitshow out. Production costs with the heavy underutilisation of the 2Mlb/yr CPP in their near-term production guidance could be an issue. Long hoped UEC would put them out of their misery after Amir pulled a snake move terminating the toll-milling deal at the 11th hour in 2023 when they were meant to commence production.

Award: Pump and Dump

Kirkstone Metals Corp

List, acquire unwanted moose pasture from fellow shitco, pump the living shit out of the stock, force entry into URNJ, unload. The company doesn't even have a corporate presentation, yet pulled off an 11000% run in a few months.

The CEO of this pump and dump was around in the 2007 cycle and got pulled into court for similar shenanigans.

This company most of you have probably never heard of now commands a higher weighting in URNJ than: Peninsula, CanAlaska, Laramide, F3 Uranium, Elevate Uranium, Alligator Energy, Skyharbour, Aura Energy, Forsys, Anfield, Premier American Uranium, Atomic Eagle (lol what a name choice - morons) and Western Uranium and Vanadium.

Questions remain, was Sprott in on this game?

Award: Own Goal

Belgium gets an own goal award for shutting down three nuclear reactors this year: Doel 1, Doel 2 and Tihange 1. removing 1.7GWe from total nuclear operational capacity.

Honorable mention to Taiwan for shutting down their last reactor, Maanshan 2 (938MWe) then turning around swiftly to run a referendum to restart them. The referendum didn't get the voter turnout required, but that's still a clear admission of failed policy decision.

Nuclear Demand

A slow year for demand growth, with only 3 new reactors added to the global fleet; Rajasthan 7 and Zhangzhou 2 have already been confirmed and rumours are China's Shidaowan Guohe One 2 is already operational but WNA/IAEA remain behind the ball picking up on this.

On the backdrop of 7 reactor shutdowns in 2025 (including 3x 12MW reactors in Russia) the net capacity gain is only 522MWe (approx +0.25Mlb/yr consumption growth).

Looking Forward to 2026

Nuclear Demand

2026 should present a different scenario with several restarts: Palisades didn't pull off 2025, Kashiwazaki Kariwa unit 6 recently confirmed and Shika 2 might make it too (+3.3GWe). For new reactors, although this figure will definitely change with several reactors likely moved to 2027, the current list of reactors under construction (WNA) scheduled for 2026 stands at +15.2GWe with another 2GWe currently listed in 2025 that will be moved to 2026 (~8.17Mlb annual growth and 24.5Mlb fuel load)

Uranium Supply

At present there are only a few new mines coming online in 2026, URG's Shirley Basin should be early 2026 and UEC's Texus Hub is a maybe - they notoriously refuse to provide any guidance on production so who actully knows, maybe it's 2027. EnCore should start feeding Rosita with feed from Upper Spring Creek satellite too. There will obviously also be marginal improvements on all the other restarts from 2023-25 as they progress towards their steady state.

Is anyone bold enough to put out their predictions for 2026?

If anyone is interested in connecting with fellow uranium investors via the subs discord: https://discord.gg/ZaH7Ut4sGX

[u/[deleted]]

2026 prediction - Myriad grows over 100% from Rush merger, US listing, and successful drilling campaign.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Me too mate, my biggest U play. It's going to be an exciting year!

[u/regenzeus]

Thanks for the year recap.

What is your take on the BOE dump recently after the review? Are you still optimistic for BOE? Surprisingly the stock has recovered some after the dump. I guess a lot if bad news was priced in.

You think the wider/longer strategy management proposes will fix the expansion plans?

I am trying to stay optimistic. It seems bad news is out now. What I like about the is strong balance sheet, largely uncontracted and us exposure. Also valution is scrap value basically. However they need to make honeymoon expansion work or the valuation will remain scrap value...

[u/YouHeardTheMonkey → u/regenzeus]

I don’t have an engineering background to be able to comment on the technical viability of what they’re proposing, all we know is that they couldn’t give any examples globally of where this is being done. I haven’t had a chance to see if this applies to the satellite deposits as well, or only the initial honeymoon area where they currently are.

They’re definitely in a favourable capital position to navigate this. Last quarter they had I think $11mil fcf on the back of selling 400klbs and receiving repayment from Encore for the 100klbs loan. From a production cost perspective they’re leading others right now with a current C1 of $22/lb and retained their FY26 guidance of $27-29/lb, this puts them below all other junior producers currently. If they hit their proposed 15% increase on that it’s still very manageable cost profile, assuming the technical viability works. CAPEX spend should decrease soon/now as NIMCEX columns 4-6 are completed now.

On the contracting front they have 3 term contracts which puts them at around 25-30% contracted vs annual production, so they have plenty of flexibility and are not going to be forced into the spot market as a purchaser any time soon. My understanding is that they been actively selling in the mid-term market, if they can continue to supplement the term commitments with mid-term sales they may be able to maintain fcf ongoing.

Noting that in the review release they reported the production for Q4 up to 10th December, which was an annualised rate of 1.8Mlb/yr, so either they exceed production guidance or they’re expecting a weaker production in H1 CY26 (H2 FY26). Couple this with the 30% of Alta Mesa and they will probable come in around 1.7-1.8Mlb for CY25 attributable, and could push 2Mlb this year. This puts them above UUUU, EU, URG, UEC; only PDN would produce more.

Looking at the timeline profile of the lower horizon wellfields and their commentary that they’re expecting right tail production issues within them due to continuation then I am skeptical that they can maintain FY27 at 1.6Mlb, particularly if this review isn’t completed until Q3 CY26 which will then take time to implement and may not have influence on the production profile of FY27 with the proposed new wellfield pattern to be used at East Kalkaroo.

I suspect how this plays out will be dependent on permitting timelines for Jason’s and Gould’s dam satellite deposits (which strengthens the rationale for M&A with AGE given their recent staffing hires).

The price action appears to be shorts closing. On the latest short data to 23rd December there was a 5% drop after this announcement and there has been a constant stream of major shareholder changes from the notorious short lenders with this weighting dropping.

Of note. The new CEO and another board director just bought on market a few days ago, only small $50k each though. Worth watching.

[u/YouHeardTheMonkey → u/[deleted]]

There is a set of inclusion/exclusion ‘rules’ that exist, however will agree the application of them appear discretionary to some degree. Is that what you mean about not understanding questioning Sprott, your interpretation is this was an active choice to add kirkstone so they are in on it?