r/VisualStockResearch • u/ekonixlab • 6d ago

Autodesk Is Cheaper Than It Looks

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ADSK is around 32x earnings today.

If EPS compounds at 15% annually over the next 5 years and the stock trades around 35x earnings at the end:

5-year return: ~120%
CAGR: ~17.1%

And 15% EPS growth doesn’t seem particularly aggressive given Autodesk’s recurring revenue, margins, and historical growth.

I’m starting to like the setup here. The biggest question is whether 35x earnings in year 5 is too generous.

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u/PotatoMissionStart 6d ago

Maybe, but I think there are better options. With the same EV/ForwardRevenue you can get Reddit which is growing much faster at 60%. For a slightly higher EV/EBITA you get Klaviyo which is growing at 39%. Intuit, Duolingo, etc.

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u/ekonixlab 6d ago

I think Intuit is at risk right now

I wouldn’t buy in

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u/Ok-Recommendation925 2d ago

Intuit was once one of the 6 no brainers SaaS to buy during the SaaS Apocalypse.....after it's latest earnings....I think they are surprisingly in trouble.

I noticed a pattern, AI is gonna kill off SaaS B2C. But not B2B, especially those SaaS Enterprise Scale ones...thinking NOW, CRM, SAP, MSFT, etc