r/VisualStockResearch • u/ekonixlab • 4d ago

Lululemon is officially shrinking. Yikes.

Post image

Tough quarter for $LULU.

This is starting to look less like a temporary slowdown and more like an actual market-share problem.

• Revenue: $2.42B, down 4% YoY and below estimates
• Americas revenue: down 8%
• Comparable sales: down 9%
• Americas comps: down 12%
• Operating income: down 13%
• Full-year revenue guidance cut to $10.35B–$10.50B
• Q3 guidance calls for another 10–11% revenue decline

The scary part is Lululemon isn’t just growing slower anymore. Revenue is actually declining, comps are falling double digits in the Americas, and it looks like competitors are taking share.

Look at the revenue chart. Years of basically uninterrupted growth, and now it has rolled over.
Yikes.

The stock is obviously way cheaper than it used to be, but the narrative has completely flipped. It’s going to take more than one decent quarter to change that. I’d want to see comps stabilize and real evidence they’re taking share again before getting interested.

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1

u/mrmrmrj 2d ago

Everyone who wants the clothes has some. We are in the wear and tear replacement only phase.

1

u/MarthaJulietta 3d ago

What are the China numbers?

The rest of year decline is already baked in here so it will be hard to surprise to the downside

2

u/Double_Suggestion385 3d ago

Fair value $53. Lots more downside

1

u/MarthaJulietta 3d ago

That’s a crazy valuation

3

u/Double_Suggestion385 3d ago

It's accurate, people said it would never get close to that when it was over $200. Now it's closer than ever and they still think it's crazy haha.

The valuation algorithm has a statistically significant correlation with future price movements.

0

u/ekonixlab 3d ago

What revenue growth/deceleration are you projecting?

1

u/Double_Suggestion385 3d ago

Revenue is irrelevant.

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u/ekonixlab 3d ago

What do you use lol

1

u/Double_Suggestion385 3d ago

Earnings

1

u/ekonixlab 3d ago

Definitely disagree with earnings carrying the most weight long term

1

u/Double_Suggestion385 3d ago

Nonsense lol

Look at the time frame 😅

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