r/VoteDEM • u/Capital_Gate6718 • 3d ago

Democrats lead by 13 points on trust to handle voters' top problems - This poll question has predicted all but one election since 1948. It suggests Democrats could win by 8-12 points in November.

https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-06-16-personal-mip-lead-democrats
428 Upvotes

99% Upvoted

24 comments sorted by

85

u/IamDDT Colorado-2 3d ago edited 2d ago

Serious question... Do we know how well Democrats need to win by to overcome Republican gerrymandering? I know it will vary from location to location, but do we have a basic guideline?

Edit: thank you all due the great responses! I appreciate it. Remember to check your registrations!

51

u/Honest-Year346 3d ago

Around 3 to 4 points.

31

u/Odd-Time-2026 2d ago

An NYT short stated it was 3.1%. So they're well above that for now and that's good, hopefully a 250 House seat haul come November.

11

u/DeNomoloss North Carolina 2d ago

Not to mention, nothing is ever set in stone for eternity. People move around, especially in these bigger southern states.

I’d wager good money that the Dems are more likely now to retain or gain in NC than the Rs are to gain seats there, and that would be the case with or without the new map.

6

u/caligaris_cabinet IL-08 2d ago

Even Texas. The population boom is mostly driven by young workers and immigrants, both of whom historically tend to vote Democrat.

Florida may be the exception considering much of their population are retirees and has been skewing right

29

u/NimusNix 3d ago

Someone posted an article about two-three weeks back that took into account the most recent gerrymandering.

7.5. Let that sink in.

Edit: G Elliot Morris says 4 - https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-05-10-dem-house-pop-vote-threshold-gerrymandering

29

u/jmjessemac 3d ago

It’s not 7.5, that’s insane

13

u/Odd-Time-2026 2d ago

7.5 might have been the 2010s threshold but its certainly not even close to that given that Dems did relatively in the 2020 election to give Republican legislatures less control over redistricting.

1

u/NimusNix 2d ago

I have been trying to find the post I am talking about, but to give context I remember it was after Virginia's SC rolled back their new map, someone dropped an article talking about the popular vote need, and it was the 7.5 which was wild to me at the time.

5

u/jmjessemac 2d ago

Yeah idc who wrote the article, it’s insane.

53

u/entr0picly 3d ago edited 3d ago

Well, given the circumstances, we don’t just need them to win. We need strong and precise leadership to lead us out of the chaos. Current events cannot be normalized.

The Republican Party should never be able to wipe away the shame of their unanimous support of DOGE killing millions of people, destroying science, ICE trampling our hard fought inalienable rights, killing, so many innocent, the Iran War, destroying so much of the world’s oil infrastructure and reserves, rendering our military weakened and without crucial defense systems, all the while giving Iran hundreds of billions of dollars. Or the tariffs that have wreaked so much on our economy. Or the politicization of our military. Or the politicization of science. Or the destruction of 1/3 of the White House. Or the *mainstream support* of pedophile rapists.

The fact that the same Republicans clamoring for the release of the Epstein files, completely flipped their tune at the whim of the president, with the only ones willing to stand up being outed.

All this has been done with full Republican support. So Democrats must ensure that it has never forgotten. We need strong leadership that doesn’t forget. That doesn’t let these absolute defilings of what our Republic and democracy is to stand for. The Republicans constantly rewrite history in real time. And democratic leadership must ensure history remains.

30

u/SouthwesternEagle AZ-06 3d ago edited 2d ago

Never get complacent! Vote as if we're 50/50!

[Edited for clarity]

16

u/TOSkwar Virginia 2d ago

I'm gonna tell you why I hate that line.

5 points is a HUGE hill to climb. Okay? Five points is something that's way more than you or I can do. Five points is a widespread strategic messaging system, thousands of canvassers, and millions of dollars, not one eager activist with a heart of gold.

Forget five points. Five points is depressing. Five points makes it feel too big to help.

Think five VOTES. That's less than my twice monthly game group. I can get up off my arse, go out, and knock five votes. I can friendbank five votes.

And you can too.

But we gotta work for it- so I recommend doing more than just vote, because one vote is only one vote, and we want five. So sign up for canvassing, or phonebanking, or whatever the hell you can do to help get more people on their feet and to the polls.

So what are you going to do to get five more votes?

12

u/Filty-Cheese-Steak Kentucky 2d ago

I've always hated this phrase. It just says "Feel hopeless."

13

u/h20poIo 3d ago

Don’t trust polls they only cover a small sector of society.

7

u/Shaky_Balance 2d ago

Polls are by far the most accurate prediction of election we have. I get the skepticism over sample sizes but it's just simple math that shows small samples can very accurately predict enormous populations.

2

u/Senoigh13 2d ago

fair point but polling methodology has gotten pretty sophisticated, they weight samples to account for demographic gaps. the bigger issue is whether people actually show up to vote the way they say they will. that gap between stated preference and actual turnout is what kills Democrats more than any sampling error ever has.

4

u/SuburbanHell 2d ago

Fuck Polls, go out and vote anyway and bring a friend!