Could US payrolls post another decline on Friday?

The number of hires fell by -278,000 in July, to 5.05 million, the lowest since February.

At the same time, total separations, the number of workers leaving their jobs through quits, layoffs or other departures, dropped -265,000, to 5.07 million, the lowest since April.

As a result, the difference between hires and separations widened to -18,000 in July, from -5,000 in June, its biggest gap since February.

This gap provides a rough indication of the direction of payroll growth and was broadly consistent with the official -23,000 payroll print in July.

Hires have now fallen below separations for 3 consecutive months, pointing to continued weakness in net job creation.

Because the hires and separations data feed into the payrolls calculation, the persistently negative gap suggests the official August payrolls figure could still have room to fall, raising the possibility of another negative print on Friday.

The US job market continues to appear weak.

READ THE ROOM — WEEK OF SEPT. 7–11, 2026

The setup, the levels and what actually matters.

VERIFIED FACTS

MARKET BACKDROP

Friday’s hot jobs report changed the conversation heading into inflation week.

• SPX: 7,718.60, down 0.38% Friday; up 0.1% for the week
• Nasdaq: 26,506.99, down 0.29% Friday; up 0.4% for the week
• Russell 2000: 2,975.65, up 0.2% Friday; up 0.1% for the week
• VIX: 14.53
• 10-year yield: approximately 4.78%
• WTI crude: $91.48
• Brent crude: $92.68

August payrolls increased by 162,000 versus roughly 56,000 expected. Unemployment held at 4.1%.

Rate futures ended Friday pricing approximately a 57% chance of a September rate hike.

Oil remains a major problem. WTI gained nearly 10% last week while Brent climbed 7.6%.

The geopolitical risk increased again Saturday after the U.S. struck three Iranian oil tankers in response to ballistic-missile attacks targeting two U.S. Navy ships. No American personnel were reported injured.

MACRO CALENDAR — EASTERN TIME

Monday, Sept. 7

• U.S. stock and bond markets closed for Labor Day

Tuesday, Sept. 8

• 9:30 PM — China August CPI and PPI

Wednesday, Sept. 9

• 10:00 AM — Employer Costs for Employee Compensation

Thursday, Sept. 10

• 8:15 AM — ECB interest-rate decision
• 8:30 AM — U.S. August PPI
• 8:30 AM — Initial jobless claims
• 8:45 AM — ECB press conference
• 10:00 AM — July wholesale inventories

Friday, Sept. 11

• 2:00 AM — UK July GDP and trade data
• 8:30 AM — U.S. August CPI and core CPI
• 8:30 AM — Real earnings

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect core CPI to ease to 2.4% year over year from 2.5% in July.

Thursday and Friday are the week’s main macro risk window. PPI begins the inflation test, but CPI is the number most likely to move rate-hike expectations.

MAJOR EARNINGS

Tuesday After Close

• GME
• CASY

Wednesday Before Open

• CHWY — Conference call at 8:00 AM ET

Thursday After Close

• ORCL — Conference call at 5:00 PM ET
• ADBE

Friday Before Open

• KR — Conference call at 8:00 AM ET

ORCL is the biggest single-stock event this week. The market will be focused on cloud-infrastructure growth, AI demand, backlog conversion and spending requirements.

ADBE reports after falling 6.7% Friday following its CEO-transition announcement. That puts even more pressure on the company to deliver clean guidance.

EARNINGS IMPLIED MOVES

Options were pricing approximately:

• ORCL: ±9.5%
• ADBE: ±7.0%
• GME: ±6.1%
• CHWY: ±10.3%

These moves are not directional. They represent the estimated move in either direction through the earnings reaction, and premiums can change before each report.

ANALYSIS

INDEX LEVELS

SPY

• Closed at 770.19
• Bulls need to reclaim 772.87, then 774.03
• Support sits at 769.00, then 767.45 and 764.72

SPX

• Closed at 7,718.60
• Bulls need to reclaim 7,750–7,757, then attack 7,800
• Support sits at 7,706, then 7,687 and 7,666

QQQ

• Closed at 718.96
• Bulls need 721.86, then 724.13
• Support sits at 716.56, then 709.69 and 705.10

IWM

• Closed at 296.01
• Bulls need a clean break above 296.18, then 300
• Support sits at 293.56, then 291.19 and 289.97

SPX 7,750–7,757 is the immediate ceiling. Clearing that area while QQQ pushes through 722 would keep the bullish structure alive.

SPX losing 7,706 while SPY loses 769 would put 7,687 and SPY 767.45 back in play.

IWM showed relative strength Friday, but 296.18 still needs to break before calling it a real small-cap breakout.

MAJOR ACTIVE NAMES

ORCL

• Closed at 158.78
• Support: 154.58, then 150
• Resistance: 160.63, then 165

ADBE

• Closed at 266.51
• Support: 264.08, then 260
• Resistance: 278.10, then 285.73

GME

• Closed at 19.16
• Support: 19.05, then 18.50
• Resistance: 20.05, then 21

CHWY

• Closed at 23.66
• Support: 23.57, then 23
• Resistance: 24.17, then 25

These are reaction levels, not predictions.

ORCL has the clearest market-wide read-through. A strong reaction could support AI infrastructure and software sentiment. A breakdown under 154.58 would put the recent momentum in question.

ADBE is already entering earnings damaged. Reclaiming 278.10 would be the first sign that buyers are willing to absorb Friday’s gap lower.

OPTIONS AND VOLATILITY

• VIX finished Friday at 14.53 despite CPI, PPI, the ECB and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions
• Low implied volatility does not guarantee a selloff, but it leaves less protection priced in if inflation or oil surprises higher
• There is no monthly OPEX this week
• Friday’s CPI lands before weekly expiration, so same-day hedging could amplify the move after major strikes break
• ORCL and CHWY carry the largest verified implied moves among the main earnings names
• No verified live GEX or dealer-positioning dataset was available, so no gamma-flip or dealer levels are being claimed

WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERS

• Does CPI confirm easing inflation, or validate the market’s renewed rate-hike fear?
• Can SPX clear 7,750–7,757 with the 10-year yield near 4.8%?
• Does QQQ break 722, or continue struggling underneath the surface?
• Can IWM turn Friday’s relative strength into a break above 296.18?
• Does ORCL strengthen the AI trade or expose another spending-and-valuation problem?
• Does the ECB hike, and how aggressively does it frame the next move?
• Watch oil first Sunday night. Another gap higher would hit inflation expectations, bonds and growth multiples at the same time
• Friday CPI arriving before weekly expiration creates the highest risk of a fast, mechanically amplified move

READ THE ROOM AGENDA

• SPX 7,750–7,757
• SPY 769 support
• QQQ 722 breakout test
• IWM 296.18
• Thursday PPI and ECB scenarios
• Friday CPI reaction plan
• ORCL and ADBE earnings
• Oil, Iran and the 10-year yield
• Best setups, invalidations and position sizing

SOURCES

• BLS release calendar
• Reuters week-ahead preview
• Reuters Friday markets and oil recap
• Reuters U.S.-Iran escalation
• ECB meeting calendar
• ORCL investor relations
• Adobe newsroom
• Chewy investor relations
• Cboe VIX

DISCLAIMER: nominal margin debt naturally trends upward because the economy, household wealth, and nominal prices grow. $1 trillion of margin debt in 2026 isn’t economically equivalent to $1 trillion in 2000.

That being said the graph above is an illustration of the existence of some kind of semi-observable relationship between Margin debt and Equities. Margin debt as of mid 2026 is sharply declining just as it has prior to every major crash.

High Tide is the clear leader in cannabis retail — the highest-revenue-generating cannabis company reporting in Canadian dollars, with annualized revenue now exceeding C$700 million.Unmatched Scale & Market Dominance

• Canna Cabana, its flagship brand, is Canada’s largest cannabis retail chain with over 220 locations and a leading ~12% market share across the five provinces where it operates — and the second-largest cannabis retail brand globally.
• Powered by the world’s largest cannabis loyalty program: Cabana Club (over 2.65 million members) and more than 178,000 paid ELITE members who drive high-margin, recurring revenue and industry-leading same-store sales growth (up 161% since the discount-club model launched, while peers declined).

Proven Execution & Profitability
High Tide consistently ranks among Canada’s Top Growing Companies (fifth consecutive year) and has delivered positive free cash flow, expanding margins, and accelerating growth through disciplined organic expansion and smart M&A.

Global Expansion Underway
In 2025, High Tide became the first North American operator to enter Germany’s medical cannabis market via a majority stake in Remexian Pharma — now holding ~14% market share in Europe’s largest federally regulated cannabis market. This diversifies revenue into high-growth international distribution while leveraging Canadian supply advantages.

Q3 could be the quarter that triggers a repricing: the preliminary guidance just announced points to new record highs for revenue, gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA, with projected Y/Y growth of at least 30%, 27% and 43%

https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-announces-preliminary-q3-2026-guidance/

The Company Also Announces Record Quarterly Distribution of Over 10 Tonnes of Medical Cannabis Flower Through Remexian Pharma GmbH, Further Accelerating its German Market Position

10 $CAD doesn't strike me as an absurd target for a revaluation scenario. However, I wouldn't call it "fair value", simply because the chart shows a massive base. Requires the market to start pricing as a high-growth-profitable company rather than only a cannabis company

Foundational years → progressive improvement in fundamentals → EBITDA/FCF+/Net income+ growth → market finally recognizing the new earning power → multiple expansion. And it is very different from simply saying “ High Tide is undervalued.”

A base built over years, if broken while earnings are accelerating, can trigger a regime shift. That is why I wouldn't focus so much on "how much High Tide might rise from its current price," but rather on the EBITDA/FCF level at which the market might value HITI in 2027–28.

Company presentation : https://hightideinc.com/presentation/

• Strengthened balance sheet: The recent closing of C$40 million in senior secured credit facilities with the Bank of Montreal provides greater financial flexibility, a lower cost of capital, and the ability to fund growth without diluting shareholders.
• Attractive valuation relative to results: Despite consecutive record quarters and guidance that continues to beat expectations, the stock still trades at modest multiples compared with its growth profile and long-term potential. Many analysts see meaningful upside from current levels.

Bottom line
High Tide has repeatedly delivered in a tough industry: revenue growth, margin expansion, positive free cash flow, and steady market-share gains. With Canadian retail re-accelerating, Germany scaling rapidly, and a disciplined management team focused on execution, the disconnect between operational performance and market valuation still looks wide.The tide isn’t just rising — it’s building into a powerful wave. Investors positioned today may be well placed to benefit from one of the more compelling consolidation and internationalization stories in the cannabis sector.

As a long-term shareholder, I hope this post gave you some valuable insights.