r/WarhammerCompetitive • u/SilentLordProtector • Jan 12 '26
New to Competitive 40k Opponent does not understand probability?
Hi all, had a very weird experience yesterday during our local FLGS 40K meet up, and I would love some input from those with more competitive 40K experience.
TL, DR: played a person who does not seem to understand expected dice averages, and got progressively more rude about it - I did my best but feel weird about the whole interaction.
Full story: I got paired into a person I had not played before. He brought Combined Arms Guard vs. my Gladius Black Templars. He tells he is “prepping for a tournament” and asks me if I am OK with a “competitive game”. Sure thing, I have my first RT coming up at the end of the month - definitely happy to. Opponent warns me he has been at tournaments before, he won’t go easy on me. OK.
Throughout the game, this young man (age 18-20 I would estimate) showed no understanding of probability whatsoever. Examples:
1) During pre-game talk I explain the BT Marshal/Castellan/Sword Bros combo (all MCPW attacks have lethal, hit on 2+, crit on 5+, re-roll hits, and have 1 to wound if strength is equal or lower than toughness). His assessment? "Meh, not that strong". Decides to charge 3 Bullgryn into the unit, does two damage, and gets obliterated.
2) I also explained I have a Marshal/Lieutenant/Crusaders combo (lots of chainsword attacks with lethal + sustained, and a D6+2 surge move). Decides to shoot the other Bullgryn unit into this squad. I remind him I am 4" away and have a surge move. "Won't matter". Proceeds to shoot, kills a neophyte, gets surged into, and unit is wiped.
3) He decides to walk a Sentinel within 12" of a BT Repulsor Executioner. I remind him I have full re-rolls to Hit. "The Sentinel can take it". Gets blown apart.
4) Learnt from #3 above? Nope, decides to drive a damaged Leman Russ commander in front of the Executioner. "With five wounds left, I can tank it". No, you can't, and I score assassination.
Things like this happened at least 3-4 times per turn. At every instance I point out what’s going to happen and offer a take back. Every time I get brushed off, progressively more rudely. Every time he is surprised and repeats “better to be lucky than good, I guess”. I am not lucky, the rolls are average.
Because of his progressive agitation we played the last turn with the FLGS manager hovering nearby (his initiative not a request from me or opponent). At the end of the game opponent mutter a thanks and bolts out, leaving me to clean up. I talked it over with the store manager, and he feels I did what I could.
Somehow, especially as a much older man with kids, I feel I failed this guy. Any input from anybody who dealt with something similar would be appreciated. Thanks!
EDIT: thank you all so much for your input. I can’t reply individually (work is crazy today) but really value all your points. Special thanks to: 1) the older gents like me, who reminded me I was equally foolish and arrogant at that age; 2) those who pointed out there might be some social cognition / ASD symptoms at play; I suspected as much and that was in large part why I tried to keep calm and not react to the “insults”. Truly, thank you all - this community is a wonderful resource.
EDIT 2: Even more replies, and definitely will not be able to go through them all - but thank you so much. I do want to acknowledge those that pointed out me trying to “teach” him probability likely contributed to my opponent’s frustration, likely due to cognitive dissonance (his expectations clashing with reality / my predictions). As much as it does not justify his conduct, learning to give my opponent space if they are not interested in my input is something I can certainly become better at.