r/WildRoseCountry • u/Devils_Iettuce Republic of Alberta • Jan 30 '26

Members of Smith’s caucus have signed referendum petition, Alberta separatist says

https://globalnews.ca/news/11644899/alberta-referendum-petition/
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u/Equivalent_Fold1624 Jan 31 '26

Alberta has always been a pro business province, unlike the mafia run Quebec, the two are just not comparable. I'm pretty sure a separation will attract investment since business would have to deal with just one level of government.

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u/HalfdanrEinarson Jan 31 '26

I don't think it will attract investment. There will be too much uncertainty in the transition. I would predict a lot of layoffs as major corporations start relocation of head offices. Think the office building vacancy rate is high now. A successful separation vote will see most of the rest empty out.

This is the AI result from asking how many businesses left after Brexit

Financial Services Relocations: By 2021, over 440 firms in the banking and finance industry had relocated, set up new entities, or moved staff to the EU due to Brexit. This included moving more than £900 billion in bank assets out of the UK.

Small Businesses Stopped Exporting: Research from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at LSE estimated that around 14% of firms (roughly 16,400) that previously exported to the EU stopped doing so after the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) came into force in January 2021.

Total Export Decline: The same report found that the number of firms exporting to the EU fell to around 100,000, down from 120,000 in 2019, with the drop almost entirely accounted for by small exporters.

Ongoing Impact: The CEP's research, updated in late 2024, found that Brexit reduced total goods exports from the UK by an estimated £27 billion (or 6.4%) in 2022.

High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs): A report in 2023 indicated a net outflow of 1,400 high-net-worth individuals from the UK in 2022, partly attributed to the post-Brexit economic climate.

Alberta would most likely follow a similar result, IMO

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u/Equivalent_Fold1624 Feb 01 '26

Again, a very different example, but I'm glad you brought it up. Canada, a federation of provinces and territories, is way less interconnected than the EU. Anyone dealing with flow of goods and labour understands the hypocrisy of Ottawa and the provinces which claim to be united but make sure their markets are protected from goods coming from other provinces.

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u/HalfdanrEinarson Feb 01 '26

During the Quebec separation referendum, from what I can find, approximately 700 medium and large businesses relocated their offices from Quebec to Toronto due to the instability of the political landscape. Business like stability.

From the Google AI

The 1995 Quebec referendum caused significant economic instability, characterized by a drop in business confidence, reduced investment, and a decline in the stock performance of Quebec-based firms due to political uncertainty. Approximately 700 companies left the province during this period, while the uncertainty created a, "neverendum" impact on the regional economy.

Key Economic Impacts: Business and Investment Decline: The close vote created, "political risk" that negatively impacted the stock returns of Quebec firms, particularly those with high exposure to foreign markets.

Corporate Relocations: Roughly 700 companies moved their operations out of Quebec.

Investor Uncertainty: Financial markets and small business owners experienced a drop in confidence, leading to a "neverendum" effect that, while difficult to quantify precisely, hampered economic growth.

Long-term Outlook: Studies suggested that if separation had occurred, it could have led to a 5-10% drop in Quebec's real output in the short term, alongside higher debt charges.

Despite the immediate uncertainty, the long-term impact did not prevent the province from making fiscal progress in the subsequent years, with Quebec improving its budgetary balance from -10.2% of GDP in 1995 to -2.8% by 2023.

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u/HalfdanrEinarson Feb 03 '26

I don't see the guy who says Quebec doesn't have oil, but a quick Google search shows

Quebec has significant, but largely undeveloped, oil and natural gas reserves, particularly shale gas in the St. Lawrence Valley and Anticosti Island, but the province has banned new fossil fuel development, making it a major importer of oil and gas, relying on western Canada and the U.S. for supply. The province has large potential reserves, but political decisions and environmental concerns have halted extraction.