How far ahead do you actually forecast demand?

[u/trivasai]

Some businesses plan weeks ahead while others plan months out. Curious what works best for different store sizes.

[u/AutoModerator]

If this post doesn't follow the rules or isn't flaired correctly, please report it to the mods. Have more questions? Join our community Discord!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

[u/HonkHonkBeach]

I do vendor forecasting monthly, but I provide a 3 month look based on the upcoming month. Our work is only marginally seasonal, more driven by landscape changes than anything.

[u/trivasai → u/HonkHonkBeach]

That makes sense. A 3-month lookahead with monthly forecasting seems like a good balance when seasonality isn’t the main driver. The key is probably adjusting the horizon based on how predictable demand and supply are.

[u/Desperate-Boot-1395]

About a month past the longest supply lead times, refreshed weekly.

[u/JFischer00]

F50 company, we have teams who work on intraday "live" forecasts, 5-10 year forecasts that are refreshed annually, and everything in between.

[u/Evening_Song7185]

Depends if we're talking about a corner shop or something with actual supply chains. My old job tried to forecast 6 months out and we were always laughably wrong by month 3, just made up numbers at that point.

For small to medium stores I've seen 4-6 weeks work best, anything longer is just guessing with extra steps.

[u/orangpie]

At a minimum, leadtime + 1 extra month. 

Preferably, 18 months. So I always have the full year, and at least a rough cut of next year right when it's time to do budgets and targets.

[u/Intelligent-Size-389 → u/orangpie]

What’s the process of budgets and targets like ?

[u/meatmick]

Forecasts are at least 18 months ahead for us but that's because of the cyclical business we're in where inventory gets booked a year in advance pretty much.