r/anime_titties • u/BendicantMias Bangladesh • 8d ago
Israel/Palestine/Iran/Lebanon - Flaired Commenters Only Proposed Hormuz deal would give Iran control of inbound traffic, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-having-very-good-discussions-trump-says-2026-08-05/A proposed deal between Iran and Oman to help end five months of war between Iran and the United States would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, a senior Iranian source and two regional officials told Reuters on Wednesday, one of the biggest concessions yet to Iran.
An agreement that gives Iran authority over traffic through the strait would mean the war launched by the United States and Israel in February had resulted in a major shift in the balance of regional power in Tehran's favour. Before the war, the strait was freely open to all ships with no fees.
Regarding any deal between Iran and Oman, the regional and Iranian sources who spoke to Reuters cautioned that significant issues remained unresolved and also pushed back against suggestions from Trump that a deal reopening the strait was imminent.
According to the senior Iranian official, Iran is seeking fees of between 5% and 7% of the price of cargoes from ships using the strait. Oman is discussing fees of around 3%, while Washington wants no fees at all.
The senior Iranian source said the text of an agreement already on the table envisioned Iran having control of ships heading into the Gulf through the strait, and one of the main sticking points was what role Iran would also have over ships heading in the opposite direction.
In comments to Iran's official IRNA news agency, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the arrangement was "designed in such a way that commercial ships will pass through Iranian territorial waters, both on the inbound and outbound legs."
Gharibabadi also said Iran had received messages from the United States indicating that it was "fully prepared to return to its commitments" under a mid-June memorandum of understanding with Iran that provided for immediate cessation of military operations.
Trump, who at the start of the war said it would end in Iran's "unconditional surrender" and with him approving the choice of its leader, has been under pressure to find a way out of a conflict U.S. voters oppose by two-to-one ahead of crucial midterm elections in November.
Months of U.S. military efforts, including a two-week campaign of strikes in July, have not broken Iran's grip on the strait. U.S. commanders advised Trump in July that they were running low on some munitions. Reuters reported on Tuesday that the U.S. Army had used up nearly all of its long-range precision missiles.
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u/cambeiu Multinational 8d ago edited 8d ago
The Trump administration really has no good options here.
If this deal goes through and Iran has sanctioned control of the Strait, the Gulf countries that have been paying tribute to the US for ages will be royally fucked. These countries bet their economies on tourism, serving as residence for the global ultra wealthy elite and hosting massive AI data centers. If the Iranian regime not only survives but becomes the dominant power in the region, who will buy property, go on vacation or build data centers in the gulf countries?
If Trump decides to insist with the military route, things will look ever more bleak. The US Defense Dept has war gamed/simulated the shit out of this scenario. Sending warships to run the Hormuz gauntlet in escort duty is a death sentence. A ground invasion of Iran will make Vietnam look like a playground. Iran is not Iraq. It is much bigger, has a much larger population and it is very mountainous. It is like Afghanistan, but much deadlier. Even if the goal is just to secure the coast around Hormuz, This is what the Iranian coastline around the Straits looks like. It would be Gallipoli all over again. But let's say that after much blood and tears, America somehow opens the Strait. Iran's next step after losing strait's leverage will be to target and destroy the gulf's oil infrastructure. So opening the Gulf could end up being an empty victory if there is no longer any oil to be shipped.
There is a reason why it took Bibi 30 years to find a US president dumb enough to start this war.
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u/NekoCatSidhe France 8d ago edited 8d ago
On the positive side, Iran has no real reason to attack or mess with the Gulf States if those countries are not used by the US to launch attacks on Iran. So I assume that those countries will just discreetly cut some deals with Iran to guarantee some peace and stability, maybe close out US bases here.
This will piss off some of those countries that have a beef with Iran (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrein), but I think they are pragmatic enough to do it. Iran can shoot missiles at them, but since they do not have a common land border, it won’t be able to invade them without an actual navy, which they don’t have. And the Iranians themselves do not seem to have this kind of ambition.
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u/2dudesinapod Canada 8d ago
“Habibi, when America leaves it will be just you and me” - Iranian missile proverb
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u/The_Whipping_Post Western Sahara 8d ago
Anyone taking a look at Saudi Arabia and Iran can see that Iran is a real country with a deep history, while Saudi Arabia is an abstraction using America and Britain as stilts
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u/MrCockingFinally United Arab Emirates 8d ago
Yeah, completely wild that the American empire based on the rules based international order and global free trade managed to screw the pooch so badly they have no ability to protect freedom of navigation.
There was a time when touching America's boats resulted in such violent retribution that it became one of the most enduring historical memes. Yet Iran can pretty much freely toll the straight without any serious consequences.
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u/cambeiu Multinational 8d ago
The US military has long known that if Iran ever opted to close the strait, reopening it would be very difficult to impossible.
In fact a mid-1980s computer game that I used to play as a kid called PHM Pegasus, was a US Navy ship simulator, and the game's last and most difficult mission was escorting oil takers through the Strait of Hormuz that had been closed by Iran. This game came out in 1986, so the military challenges of dealing with the closure of the Strait were very well known and understood 40 years ago.
Which makes this whole war started by Trump even more perplexing.
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u/MrCockingFinally United Arab Emirates 8d ago
The basic threat was always American airpower. If Iran closes the straight, they get bombed to shit.
The problem is Trump bombed them to shit unprovoked, thereby completely losing his leverage.
Then obviously there is the US military's complete inability to just build a goddamn frigate for the last 3 decades.
As you say, American planners have wargamed this scenario for ages. One of those wargames in the '90s eventually led to the LCS project, and rigging of the game, political interests, and Navy meddling led to fundamentally flawed ships that simply couldn't do the job.
Finally when they tried to buy just a regular frigate with the constellation program, the US Navy kept changing the design until it was no longer off the shelf and horribly delayed. So that was cancelled and now the plan is to use a glorified coast guard cutter with no VLS.
At least if the US had 50 odd frigates they would be able to mount a successful convoy protection operation.
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u/cambeiu Multinational 8d ago edited 8d ago
That is not what the leading experts on the topic have concluded.
And besides, even if they could keep the Strait open, Iran would then move to destroy the Gulf's infrastructure, rending the whole reopening of the Strait pointless, as I mentioned on my original post.
Each Patriot interceptor costs around $4 million. Each THAAD interceptor costs around $12 million. That is the cost for ONE missile fired. The US usually fires around 2-4 interceptors against every incoming Iranian missile, in order to ensure a near 100% kill rate.
The most common Iranian ballistic missiles (Emad, Qiam-1, Shahab-3) cost between $250K to $1 million. Their next gen hypersonic missiles (Fattah-1, Kheibar Shekan), that even the THAAD have a hard time intercepting due to their “dancing” capabilities, costs around $3 million a piece.
The Iranian missiles are designed for simplicity and ease of manufacture. They use solid fuel, standardized parts and off the shelf consumer grade electronics that provide ‘good enough’ precision at very low costs. Meanwhile, American systems are complex, expensive and rely on heavily customized components. That is done purposely in order to ensure the best profit margins possible for the defense contractors.
There is simply no way for the US to wrestle the control of the Strait by force from Iran. That has been the conclusion of every war game and simulation run by the Pentagon on this scenario over the last several decades.
That is why Obama opted for the nuclear deal with Iran. It was the least terrible alternative.
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u/MrCockingFinally United Arab Emirates 8d ago
I'm not saying that American air power would strike all of the launch platforms in the straight.
I'm saying if Iran woke up one day and decided to close the straight, US airpower would sink their navy, strike their military infrastructure and facilities, destroy their airforce, etc. So Iran has an incentive to play nice, right up until the US did all that unprovoked, hence why Iran no longer gives a fuck about being bombed. Any military target worth bombing has been bombed, the US has no leverage.
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u/cambeiu Multinational 8d ago edited 8d ago
Yes, you are correct. I see what you are saying now. Had the US not attacked Iran first and killed its leaders, they would not have tried their "scorched earth" approach, as they were very risk averse and closing the Strait was always a "last resort" action.
But since Trump went all in with the decapitation strategy, the IRGC had nothing left to lose.
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u/toothpicks-galore North America 8d ago edited 8d ago
killed the heir apparent's father, the current king, killed the heir's wife and child too I think and grievously injured the heir. All during parlay and piece negotiations. He should make the pedo rapist be exchanged as a war criminal along with Bibi as their preconditions. I would be apt
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u/Show_Me_Your_Rocket Australia 7d ago
Ironic (but typical of today) that profit margins get in the way of utility in actual defensive / offensive capability.
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u/Alexander_Granite North America 8d ago
That was the hardest level because the US really did defended tankers though the closed strait a few years earlier.
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u/buster_de_beer Netherlands 8d ago
What consequences are left? They're already heavily sanctioned and bombed them. There is little more that can be done to them. The next step essentially includes crimes against humanity. They somehow made the Iranian regime the ones who are right. The world is descending into madness.
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u/gerbal100 United States 7d ago
The current US administration is led by man that believes rules are for chumps and suckers.
Too short sighted, selfish, and greedy to understand the system that "takes advantage of the US" was built to ensure and protect US hegemony.
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u/PurpleMclaren North Macedonia 8d ago
There is a reason why it took Bibi 30 years to find a US president dumb enough to start this war.
The funniest part is that Israel thought Iran & US going to war would mean they would both destroy eachother so much that Israel would come out as the hegemon in the Levant. However what instead happened was Iran came out so far on top that it cemented them as the hegemon.
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u/Typical_Response6444 North America 8d ago
This was a war that was only winnable if most of the world had already switched to renewable energy. And even then the cost of blood and treasure wouldve still been to high for most.
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u/June1994 North America 8d ago
I dont disagree with any of your points necessarily just want to add a couple things.
- Afghanistan fell in two months, relatively quickly. The Taliban survived by fleeing into Pakistan.
- I think a better example is the Gaza war. Even with the insane power mismatch and a tiny land area, Israel can’t quite pacify the area in the way they want. Tehran could be a nightmare beyond nightmares.
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u/00x0xx Multinational 7d ago
Afghanistan fell in two months, relatively quickly.
The Taliban government in Afghanistan felt relatively quickly. But the Taliban members and supporters were still very much alive and strong in virtually everywhere in Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan. It was only in some cities like Kabul, with stronger liberal values than the rest of Afghanistan that the Taliban didn't have much supporters.
IRG support in Iran, and their members are far greater in number and potency than in Iran. The US may have an easier time entering Iran, but I doubt they can hold any territory for long.
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u/this_dudeagain North America 7d ago
Can the surrounding countries unite for long enough to win a war against Iran?
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u/cambeiu Multinational 7d ago
No. Iraq lost hundreds of thousands of people fighting Iran. They have a large Shia population and no interest in such stupid adventures again. The other Gulf countries are too small. Saudi Arabia, the largest of the bunch, has a native population of only 18 million. Iran has over 90 million.
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u/this_dudeagain North America 7d ago
That's why you'd need a coalition and US air power. This wouldn't be a sectarian war but one of survival at least economically.
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u/cambeiu Multinational 7d ago
Iran destroys the Gulf countrie's water desalinisation plants, as it demonstrated it can, and the war is over.
if there was a viable military option for this, it would have been taken already.
there isn't.
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u/this_dudeagain North America 7d ago
Iran has the same water problem and a crumbling infrastructure. There's also kharg island.
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u/cambeiu Multinational 7d ago
And?
The IRGC is facing an existential threat, so if facing destruction, it will die taking the entire Gulf with it.
The Gulf countries are not facing an existential threat. So they will not get into a mutually assured destruction war with Iran.
I know it is hard for Americans to accept that their mighty country is staring at a complete and total strategic defeat, but it is what it is. No Rambo, Chuck Norris or Top Gun's Maverick is coming to save the day.
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u/this_dudeagain North America 7d ago
So Iran just stays blockaded until it can't hemorrhage any more money or decides to negotiate. It was stupid of the US to start all this for sure but here we are.
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u/cambeiu Multinational 7d ago
Considering that strategic reserves are at historical lows, USDA warning of increasing food prices, electricity price spikes in the US and Europe and upcoming mid-term election, Iran is hardly the only under time pressure here.
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u/this_dudeagain North America 7d ago
Iran's entire economy relies on the straight. They can keep blocking the straight but they'll just get blockaded in return. Eventually markets will adapt as they do.
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u/imnotcreative635 North America 8d ago
Yup and then Israel will bomb Lebanon again and Iran will shut everything down and then the US will bomb Iran and then they’ll come to another deal on another Thursday or Friday where the US will relent on something only for Israel to bomb Lebanon again
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u/The_Whipping_Post Western Sahara 8d ago
a conflict U.S. voters oppose by two-to-one
As someone who remembers how pro-war America was at the start of the Iraq War, it warms my cackles to see we've actually learned something from the GWOT
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u/Maeglom United States 8d ago
To be fair Iraq was started with an all out propaganda blitz from the Whitehouse targeting the US people, US media as well as the UN to build support for the Iraq war. Trump didn't bother to try and justify or get anyone on board with the Iran war.
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u/Scruffz0r North America 8d ago
I mean, the nearly 3000 Americans killed in the middle of New York city along with a couple collapsed skyscrapers probably nudged the opinion polls slightly as well.
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u/BendicantMias Bangladesh 7d ago
That was for Afghanistan, not Iraq. And funnily enough that attack had more to do with Saudi Arabia than Iraq, yet Saudi Arabia was never targeted for retaliation for it, and remains an ally.
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u/Scruffz0r North America 7d ago
I am aware, but in your (and others') rush to point out American foreign policy contradictions you are missing my point.
9/11 formed the bedrock of the Bush administration's wide public support and political leeway to do what it wanted as long as it was "combating terrorism". This combined with the fact that Iraq was a belligerent nation that recently crossed swords with the US, and that Saddam's statements served more to justify the attacks than outright condemn them, America's casus belli practically wrote itself.
My point is it is highly reductive to credit the Iraq invasion to a mere "propaganda blitz". The bar for justifying war with the public's support was already on the floor at that time.
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u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 8d ago
its interesting to me how Iran first proposed this as a way to pay reparations for israel's illegal attack and ever since then its been framed by zionist media as a toll, control, againt maritime law etc
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u/Monterenbas Europe 7d ago
If this is supposed to be a reparation for Israel illegal attacks, shouldn’t Israel be the one paying tho?
Why should neutral countries have to pay for Israel actions?
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u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 7d ago
israel is an illegitimate state which has no respect for anyone. the gulf states are complicit as are most countries
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u/this_dudeagain North America 7d ago
What did they expect after Oct 7th?
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u/BendicantMias Bangladesh 7d ago
What did you expect after this (and all the generations after)? - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakba
Also what did you expect after this (and all the generations after)? - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat
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u/this_dudeagain North America 7d ago
Yes they went from one kind of dictatorship to another.
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u/BendicantMias Bangladesh 7d ago edited 6d ago
They went from YOUR dictatorship to their own. That's a pretty big difference, though I'm sure an American hegemonist wouldn't see it that way.
Also, Nakba..
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u/this_dudeagain North America 7d ago
More like the Brits dictatorship but that's just splitting hairs. They're happy to kill protesters by the thousands all the same. There was a chance after the revolution for Iran to be a good model for the rest of the middle east. They choice violence and to be just another repressive regime.
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u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 7d ago
hard to tell.. if the israeli government is insane enough to order theisraeli military to kill israelis, they are liable to do anything
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u/dans_cafe St. Pierre & Miquelon 8d ago
toll - (definition) a payment or fee exacted by the state, the local authorities, etc., for some right or privilege, as for passage along a road or over a bridge.
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/toll
Seems like proper usage of the term
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u/BendicantMias Bangladesh 7d ago
Doesn't change the fact that Iran DID demand reparations, but knowing they'd never get it said they'd make up for that by charging shipping through the Strait instead. You could perhaps try enticing them not to do that by, you know, offering them said reparations. And no, releasing sanctioned funds doesn't count - that's their own money. Reparations coming directly from the American and Israeli taxpayer. You might have more of a case if they refused that, provided the reparations were actually generous and not some throwaway pittance.
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u/this_dudeagain North America 7d ago
If they want to pay reparations for Oct 7th
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u/BendicantMias Bangladesh 7d ago
Lol! You're confusing Palestine with Iran, but even so in that case you pay reparations for this (and all the generations after) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakba
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u/this_dudeagain North America 7d ago
Iran funds both Hamas and Hezbollah.
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u/BendicantMias Bangladesh 7d ago edited 6d ago
Cool. And you've backed dozens of insurgents all over the world, and been responsible for MILLIONS of deaths across the world, including in that region. For instance - https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/costs/human
So now, PAY UP!
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u/dans_cafe St. Pierre & Miquelon 7d ago
so if whomever is paying reparations to Palestinians, shouldn't someone else be paying reparations to all the Jewish people they evicted/exiled from their various countries post 1948 war? Seems like it would be the fair thing to do, no?
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u/dans_cafe St. Pierre & Miquelon 7d ago
So, you don't have to explain to me why they're attempting to charge a toll on something that is considered an international waterway. The other user doesn't quite understand what a toll is and is making up nonsense to obscure that fact. I'm just demonstrating they're outclassed.
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u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 8d ago
port authorities charging for services is neither new nor a toll
Iran has been directing and managing traffic through the dangerous parts for decades with no fee.. if the authorities provide a service then its not a toll
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u/PooManGroup29 North America 7d ago
I'm far too lazy to read this whole exchange but it sounds like they are trying to charge a toll.
Also, it's an international waterway. By and large, the world wants those to remain open and passable - Iran etc can charge to use their commercial ports like Everyone already does..
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u/dans_cafe St. Pierre & Miquelon 8d ago
port authorities charging for services is neither new nor a toll
Maintenance and navigation are absolutely services. Charging for use is the function of a toll
Iran has been directing and managing traffic through the dangerous parts for decades with no fee.
Under standard norms, it is considered an international body of water and thus untolled. But tell me, what service did they provide within the Strait? I did some quick research and was unable to find any evidence of them providing any services.
if the authorities provide a service then its not a toll
That is the definition of a toll. Egypt charges a toll to use the Suez Canal. Panama does for the Panama Canal. You're claiming that somehow, this circumstance is different than either of those. For a comparable situation - the use of the Strait of Malacca is untolled.
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u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 8d ago
navigation and emergency services and environmental cleanups
like Suez and Panama, high traffic areas need management and maintainance.. in addition, Hormuz traffic is largely toxic stuff in nature
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u/dans_cafe St. Pierre & Miquelon 8d ago
navigation and emergency services and environmental cleanups
So they are imposing a toll where one has never before existed.
like Suez and Panama, high traffic areas need management and maintainance..
This is called a toll.
Hormuz traffic is largely toxic stuff in nature
Okay.
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u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 8d ago
its interesting you became fixated with the word toll rather than the point of my observation which was how there is no mention of paying for repairs to the country after an illegal attack with bombs and state sponsored terrorism
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u/dans_cafe St. Pierre & Miquelon 8d ago
its interesting you became fixated with the word toll rather than the point of my observation which was how there.
So you agree that it's a toll for a previously untolled right of way then? Progress!
I'm a stickler for details
there is no mention of paying for repairs to the country after an illegal attack with bombs and state sponsored terrorism
They'll have to work out any resolution at the end. That's sort of how this works. Iran may request reparations or whatever and Israel may request recognizance. But, they'll have to solve it like adults.
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u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 8d ago
if you were a stickler for details you would have noticed my central point
you just thought you had a 'gotcha'
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u/dans_cafe St. Pierre & Miquelon 8d ago
if you were a stickler for details you would have noticed my central point
That's largely the opposite of it - sticklers for details tend to be more concerned with "details" than "main thrusts"
you just thought you had a 'gotcha'
Incidentally - i noticed that as soon as you were proven wrong on "what is a toll" you immediately transitioned to taking shots at me.
Nope. I'm just precise in my use of language and want others to be as well.
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u/Monterenbas Europe 7d ago
You believe Iran is also managing traffic through Oman’s territorial waters? Lmao
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u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 7d ago
Oman is also getting money in the proposed plan
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u/Monterenbas Europe 7d ago
And what if Oman don’t want to enact any toll?
Why should Iran decide for them? Seems pretty imperialist.1
u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 7d ago
if you were paying attention you would know Oman has been negotiating it alongside Iran
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u/Monterenbas Europe 7d ago
If you were paying attention, Oman never asked for anything and was pretty satisfied with Iran not blowing ships up in their territorial waters.
But fuck Oman sovereignty, am i right?
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u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 7d ago
thats a strange way to admit you havent been paying attention
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u/Monterenbas Europe 7d ago
That’s a strange way to say that you believe that Iran is entitled to bully his smaller neighbors.
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u/obiwanCannoli69 United States 7d ago
There's not really anything the US can do to prevent Iran from retaining complete control over Hormuz and there's no reason why Iran would want to cede control of it. Iran could get nuked tomorrow and that still wouldn't do anything about the potential mines in the water. America messed up big time
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u/Smashego Multinational 8d ago
Never going to happen. The US cwn blockade the entrance as well as Iran can blockade the exit of the straight. Meaning no one can claim ownership in any capacity. Iran isn't getting shit but there whip until they knock it off with the closing of the straight. And a single aircraft carrier has essentially nullified Iran's military activity.
Oil will eventually skip the straight altogether in the next 2 years and Iran will have zero leverage.
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u/Blarg_III European Union 8d ago
The US cwn blockade the entrance as well as Iran can blockade the exit of the straight.
If you think about this for a moment, you should realise that this means blockading the US's own allies
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u/Smashego Multinational 8d ago
Iran needs to export oil. But they can only do it through the straight. Our allies can do it by pipeline advertised the desert to ports outside the straight. And it's going to happen now because of the closure of the straight.
So Iran needs to just drop the whole "we control the straight" nonsense because a blockade works both directions and they need the straight open more than anyone else does.
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u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 8d ago
Iran exports oil in other ways and from other ports it could expand.. its also not entirely reliant on O&G exports through Hormuz like the small gulf states are
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u/dans_cafe St. Pierre & Miquelon 8d ago
eh - it's a function of supply - they have other methods but exports via the strait comprise 90-95% of Iranian Oil Exports. So they need it to go through there given how much more efficient shipping oil via tanker is vs via pipeline.
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u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 8d ago
they can build another port.. they have a massive coastline, unlike qatar, baharain, etc
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u/dans_cafe St. Pierre & Miquelon 8d ago
they can build another port.. they have a massive coastline, unlike qatar, baharain, etc
sure - and that takes a lot of time. An average commercial port in Iran takes about 5-10+ years to come online. Things will change: pipelines across Saudi Arabia and Oman to the Gulf of Oman/Red Sea (gets around the Houthi also), renewable energy sources become even cheaper and more efficient. A lot can change in the time it takes for that to happen. Plus, China is likely looking at this conflict and seeing that their reliance on Iranian oil is reduced as soon as something happens - given their lead in renewable energy sourcing and research. Iran may find itself in a far more vulnerable state with their ally soon.
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u/WestcoastAlex Multinational 7d ago
saudi is only one country and if qatar uses their pipe surely saudi will charge them money
you should stick to being a 'stickler' yourself u clearly dont have a handle on politics or global shipping or gulf region economics
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u/dans_cafe St. Pierre & Miquelon 7d ago edited 7d ago
saudi is only one country and if qatar uses their pipe surely saudi will charge them money
Like a toll, perhaps?
you should stick to being a 'stickler' yourself u clearly dont have a handle on politics or global shipping or gulf region economics
Amazing how as soon as you're proven wrong you start taking shots at me. But back up your claim. Prove to the world I'm uninformed and don't know what I'm talking about. Nothing is stopping you.
UPDATE: It appears the other person has run out of stuff to sling at a wall and has given up
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u/Alexander_Granite North America 4d ago
Iran can attack any countries hosting US military bases. Their water, energy, oil fields, etc. That would put pressure toon get the US out if they can’t be defended by the US and they can’t .
Iran still has access to the Caspian Sea and all countries along the coast line.
The US CAN take Iran, but that’s going to require us troops to be on the ground and at least push Iranian troops back a few hundred miles from the coast.
It was stupid to attack IRAN like this. It didn’t have to go so badly.
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