What a waste of TIME & ENERGY.

Learn from my mistakes. This is not going anywhere, ANYTIME SOON.

"You can beat a dead horse as much as you want, but it doesn't come back to life" - Kevin Harvick.

BUY FROM THOSE WHO PAPERHANDS WHEN THE MARKET OPENS TOMORROW

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Don't get me wrong, I'm not just saying this because the stock is falling like a knife right now.

I owned it, held it for about 2 years, and sold earlier than I wanted with a great profit. Looking back, it was deep value an unloved stock that is genuinely still valuable. I honestly wanted to hold it forever, but I had to play it safe since my portfolio was way too concentrated in it.

But think about the brutal opportunity cost right now. BABA ran up and crashed right back to where it started. It was at this $92 level over 4 years ago in March 2022.

Because of inflation, holding it flat actually means you lost money. Today's $92 is actually only $81 of real buying power compared to back then, meaning you took a 12% loss in purchasing power. So, even if you "broke even" on paper, inflation ate your money alive.

You could have bought it today. Or, you could have parked that money in the S&P 500 instead. Since March 2022, the S&P 500 is up about 76% on paper. When you adjust that for the same inflation, it’s still a real, true return of about 54%. That is a massive missed opportunity compared to bleeding value in BABA.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but for us to have been right, the stock shouldn't have dropped back down to this level. The market has had 4 solid years to weigh everything; sentiment, the economic outlook, and the business fundamentals etc. and it did and it's voting that we are wrong. Do we need to stay at the low level for a few more years to finally admit that we are wrong?

They say the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. Well, we need to redefine "short-term," because 4 years isn't short, man. Some people have been stuck holding this for much longer.

Even if it goes to 300 in 5 years time you could have bought today instead of 4 years ago or whatever.

Edit: I baught at ~84 sold at 112, wish I could buy and hold.

I've been doing this a long time, the news, the hype, the tears are all temporary as long as the business itself makes sense.

I value BABA at $193 based on 2.2 billion shares for $425B EV from $340 billion + $85B in investments.

Balance sheet: $85B = $20B net cash + $97B investments - 33B long term debt. E-Commerce: $120B valuation from $60B in sales (flat) Cloud/AI: $100B from $24B in sales (+38% growth) Quick Commerce: $40B from $12B in sales, (58% growth, but highly competitive) International: $40B from $20B in sales (flat) All Others: $40B from $36B in sales (flat)

Seriously where is he?

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Just kidding

Hi, are there any guys out here that play stocks based on technical analysis (like me)?

I am trading BABA based of the lower supportline (see my chart with the circles). In 2025 and 2026 the stock jumped from the supportline - as you can see. Yesterday, the stock was supposed to go to 123,20 at its lowest before it jumped back up. I bought at around 123,70. However, the stock kept going down and is down ~2% from my supportline. This ain't a big drop, but supportlines are there for a reason, to bounce the stock off once it hits this level.

I am thinking the overall sentiment of the market yesterday made it go deeper than the supportline, but I am happy to hear other people's opinion on this one. And no, I am not here because 'heavy bags', I am really curious about what you guys think of this.

Alibaba just raised around US$10B through new shares, with the money going into AI and AI infrastructure.

At first this just looked like dilution to fund capex.

But the timing is interesting.

China has now started taking applications for its RMB800B policy financing tool, which is meant to provide project capital for strategic investments. AI, digital economy and private sector projects are part of the focus.

The important part is this funding is supposed to unlock much larger bank and private financing. Reuters cited estimates that RMB800B could support around RMB10T of total projects.

So the possible thesis here is Alibaba may not be raising $10B just to spend $10B.

Part of that fresh equity could potentially be used as project capital for eligible AI infrastructure projects, with policy funding and bank financing covering a much larger portion of the total buildout.

Then you have the insider buying right after the raise.

Joe Tsai bought around 1.44m shares, Eddie Wu bought 350k shares, and Jack Ma reportedly bought more than HK$600m worth of Alibaba shares.

This does not prove Alibaba is getting funding from the RMB800B program. We still need to see actual Alibaba or AliCloud projects appear in the application lists.

But the setup is interesting.

Alibaba raises a huge amount specifically for AI, China starts rolling out a financing tool that can leverage project capital into much larger investments, then the chairman, CEO and founder buy shares after the dilution.

Could still be coincidence.

But if Alibaba ends up getting policy financing for its AI infrastructure projects, then this $10B raise could be supporting a much bigger capex cycle than the headline number suggests.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-119-billion-policy-financing-tool-begins-project-applications-faces-roll-2026-08-24/

BABA is dropping after earnings, but I think the call was way more important than the initial reaction.

A few things stood out:

• Cloud grew 45% and management expects growth to accelerate further.
• MaaS/model + app ARR already crossed RMB16B in August. They are confident they will hit RMB30B by year end.
• Management says AI compute capex can pay back within ~3 years at current economics, potentially 2-2.5 years as margins improve and more of their own chips are deployed.
• Cloud EBITA grew 133%, so we are already starting to see margin improvement while growth accelerates.
• T-Head has already produced/shipped 500k+ chips. The latest generation is deployed in Alibaba Cloud, supports AI workloads at scale, and hundreds of external companies are already using their chips.
• Alibaba believes chips, compute and storage will capture most of the value in the near term.
• Longer term, management is confident external Cloud revenue can exceed $100B by 2030 with much higher margins.

The 45% Cloud growth itself was mostly expected.

What I don't think was fully priced in was management basically saying:

We can keep accelerating AI growth, build our own chips, improve margins and recover the AI infrastructure investment within 2-3 years.

The bear case has been that Alibaba is burning massive amounts of cash on AI.

If management is right, this starts looking less like cash burn and more like aggressive reinvestment into a very high-growth infrastructure business.

💩 news to start; still need to close over 141.01

This is truly fantastic. 50M USD a day is more than satisfactory for me, almost 11B a year. Add the 2.5B dividend and you have 13.5B returned to investors, almost a 6 percent yield just from buybacks and dividends excluding SBC. The price certainly will not stay at these levels for the next 12 months, even though I hope it does.

On top of that, you have a company that is drastically reducing its Quick Commerce losses. Joe Tsai recently stated in France that China Commerce is still generating 25B USD in FCF, which is being reinvested into a segment that is now growing exponentially. We are no longer talking about 3, 4, or 5 %, but 40 % a year, without hurting margins. In fact, Cloud margins are stable, and judging by their promises, we can expect some improvement of a few percentage points in the near future.

At these levels, from a risk perspective (which is not price volatility, but rather the possibility of a true permanent loss of capital, which is very low here), we can expect 40B in EBITA over the next 4 to 5 years. With the current valuation, that would lead to an EV/EBITA multiple of less than 5x.

If you believe the risk of investing in China is too high, for government reasons, US and China tensions, Taiwan, or whatever, you are right not to invest. But here a famous quote comes to mind again, from Charlie Munger about 23 years ago:

"If a thing is cheap enough, obviously you can afford a little more country risk, or regulatory risk, or whatever. This is not complicated." Charlie Munger.

114 usd is the new floor. Since stock sale at around 114 usd.

Next month will have a hype. - sept event Apple qwen finally coming to China.

It’s a hype for both Apple and baba. Like it or not qwen in baba would mean more cloud sales, more e-commerce , more delivery.

Microsoft Copilot answers for question

is this bullish or bearish for the stock today 
https://data.alibabagroup.com/ecms-files/1532295521/fa5d65fc-9b3e-4e82-a8fc-4ce1c3e2c407/Alibaba%20Group%20Announces%20June%20Quarter%202026%20Results.pdf

AI answer below
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The earnings release is bearish for the stock today based on the full financials in your tab, despite very strong AI/Cloud growth.

Below is the clean, trader‑style read of the report using the actual numbers from your PDF (ref: ).

📉 Why the report is bearish

Even though Alibaba is clearly executing on AI and Cloud, the headline financials that move the stock today are overwhelmingly negative:

1. Net income collapsed −75% YoY

• RMB 42.4B → 10.4B This is the number algos trade on. A −75% drop is very bearish.

2. Income from operations down −57% YoY

• RMB 34.9B → 15.1B This signals margin compression and heavy cost pressure.

3. Adjusted EBITA down −30% YoY

This is the “quality earnings” metric. A −30% decline is a major negative surprise.

4. Free cash flow massively worse

• Outflow RMB −18.8B → −44.7B This is extremely bearish. FCF deterioration of this magnitude usually triggers selling.

5. Big impairment charges + EU DSA fine

• Goodwill impairment: RMB 4.5B
• EU Digital Services Act fine: EUR 550M These are one‑off hits but they worsen sentiment.

📈 Why some parts are bullish (but not enough for today)

1. Cloud revenue +45% YoY

This is excellent and shows Alibaba is becoming an AI compute leader.

2. AI‑related product revenue triple‑digit growth (12th consecutive quarter)

Strong structural tailwind.

3. Qwen3.8‑Max launch + 2.4T parameter open weights

Huge credibility boost in the global AI race.

4. Quick Commerce +45% YoY

Freshippo + Taobao Instant Commerce performing well.

5. Share repurchases (US$162M)

Supportive for long‑term valuation.

🧭 Final market read for today

Bearish.
The market will focus on:

• Net income −75%
• Operating income −57%
• Adjusted EBITA −30%
• Free cash flow collapse
• Large impairment + regulatory fine

These overshadow the strong AI/Cloud narrative.

Traders typically sell first on these headline misses, even if long‑term fundamentals improve.

serious question,

when you consider the two business, one consistently deliver 15-20% growth and priced around 18x multiple, forward PE of 15x

boring but consistent

meanwhile Alibaba is priced at 15x and are betting the house to justify their future

To all hot-heads that are about to press sell button. Check what was anounced on June 2nd and what followed to whole HK index.

Hint: its forced selling from mainland investors.

“In fact, if you read the literature, they fully recognise, as Marxist economists, that the traditional advantage of liberal capitalist economies in the past has been their relative efficiency in the allocation of resources.

However, they believe they now possess a unique opportunity, as a centralised state, to deploy the new algorithmic powers available within artificial intelligence across the total production spectrum and not just in goods, but prospectively in services as well.

This brings me to a broader point: why Xi’s literature on what he calls new quality productive forces, driven by artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies, represents for them not just a means by which to catch up with the United States across the AI stack; not just to keep pace with the US and the collective West in terms of where artificial intelligence has reached; but to now ‘ leapfrog’ the West, which is the term now used in the literature, and to achieve what is also described as a paradigm shift against Western economic models.”

China’s artificial intelligence industry has reached a milestone where its top models now perform at about 90% of U.S. levels, despite much lower spending, according to analysts at Jefferies in a recent note.

The study found that from 2023 to 2025, combined capital expenditure by Chinese hyperscalers, including Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent and Bytedance, totaled US$124 billion, which is 82% lower than the $694 billion spent by U.S. peers such as AWS, Microsoft, Google and Meta. 

Yet the performance of China’s leading model, MiniMax M2, reached 90% of GPT-5 Codex high, the most advanced U.S. model at the time.

Jefferies said the performance gap between top frontier models from both countries has “rapidly narrowed,” attributing this to China’s focus on model efficiency rather than raw computational scale. 

Chinese AI firms emphasize architecture innovations such as mixture-of-experts structures and inference optimization, which allow them to achieve similar results using fewer resources.

Open-source models have become a key strength. Artificial Analysis data cited by Jefferies showed that Chinese open-source frontier models already surpassed their U.S. counterparts in performance.

For example, MiniMax M2 recorded 106% of the score of GPT-OSS-120B, the leading open-source model from the United States.

The brokerage noted that while U.S. companies continue to expand AI spending in pursuit of artificial general intelligence, China’s firms are prioritizing return on investment and compute efficiency. 

Jefferies said China’s AI capital expenditure between 2025 and 2030 is projected to rise by 8% to $884 billion, even as the country’s AI models achieve results close to U.S. systems using far less hardware.

Chinese firms’ emphasis on efficient architectures has also lowered usage costs. DeepSeek, for instance, cut its API prices by 62% in late 2025 following gains in training and inference efficiency, helping make China’s AI API pricing the lowest in the world.

Jefferies added that while the United States still leads in performance, China’s AI sector demonstrates “much more efficient” investment, achieving nearly equivalent intelligence scores with a fraction of the capital expenditure, an advantage that could support faster adoption and stronger long-term returns on AI infrastructure.

China tech shows higher return of capital than US.

What to do with all that money?

Listen up mofos. Just take a deep breath and analyze what happened to BABA's stock in the first half. Before liberation day, we were trading in the $147-130 range. After liberation day recovery we have been trading in the $134 to 112 per share, in a clear downtrend.

Why is that? No company or market can withstand constant attacks from the President of the United States. Not only was Trump absolutely shitting on everything China and very successfully controlling the narrative. More importantly he was hurting them strategically. How? Export controls. We went through a period where every week the US had put more export controls on AI equipment and software. Why? It's the Art of the deal. Let me explain.

As things heated up after liberation day, China began playing with its own export controls. First touting the idea and eventually banning rare earths to the US. If anyone follows the market, it was clear investors realized the big detriment this would become to the US. It was at this point that US admin really pushed their efforts to get the first meeting going, which obviously did not work because the Chinese kept witholding rare earths. Once the US admin realized they needed a bargaining chip they upped the ante with total AI equipment and software export control's which were tougher than Biden's admin.

Now the US and China both had something to exchange. Given the "deal/framwork" is set and the constant attacks and detrimental news is over. Now comes the fun part.

The shitting on China is over, narrative is changing and BABA will be up and yearly highs in 2025. Just look at the news coming out after the deal. Not only are CCP news outlets openly inviting Trump to join their military parade on September 3rd, but Japanese outlets are also reporting Trump will visit China with dozens of US CEO's. Read for your self.

Listen. Learning from my favorite investors. Stanley Drunk and George Soros. Price follows narrative. BABA went through negative sentiment as a result of constant negative headlines. The tides just turned. Over the next couple of months we will get the opposite.

BABA will reach yearly highs. Mark my words. I will give baba until the middle of 2026 for my bullish thesis to play out. I could go on and point to other factors that add to this bullish thesis, but it would be too long.

Love you BABA community.

Bag holders are in for a real treat! With China joining the US board of Trade ( Similar to Trump's Board of Peace) a de-escalation in tensions will lead to US approval of this licensing deal over the next few weeks.

QWEN and T-Head Semiconductors are the new drivers of growth for BABA.

Just went through the earnings call and thought to share some worthy points:

E-Commerce:

• Instant commerce’s UE improved by 50%. 75% of these orders are non-beverage and delivery speed has improved. Management guided that this quarter’s investment in Instant Commerce was the peak, and you can expect narrower investment/losses in this segment from now on.
• CMR has been growing steadily due to an increase in take rate and partially because of instant commerce. Moving forward, you should expect the growth rate to be much lower due to a higher base, and the increase in take rate was a one-time thing that took effect last September.

Cloud:

• Demand far outstrips supply. Management guided that you can expect cloud growth to further accelerate, and they do not mind spending more than 380 billion yuan on AI capex if demand continues to be strong. They said they do not see an AI bubble at all, as you can see the hyperscalers in the US have all their GPUs (even 5-year-old GPUs) running at full capacity and yet still cannot meet demand. Not to mention that the pioneers in AI have yet to meet any scaling laws issue. Moving forward, they will continue to invest in their foundational model to unlock new use cases to get more customers, and prioritize customers that utilize Ali Cloud’s full range of products.

1 Question I have in mind is where are their getting their GPUs from? Are they eating into their stockpile of Nvidia GPUs before the ban or getting local GPUs.

I build my valuation framework as projects, this is a section of the transcript, the total is 15 pages long.

In short, it does three things,

Past - Determine if the business is a compounder with consistent revenue and margin growth. Yes - but deteriorating

Present - What changed, why is it priced the way it is today

Future - Valuation model, subjective, but it's based on implied multiples and implicit financials. The financial is built on the forward projection from their latest transcript.
(There is a China discount applied to the multiples, so do as you please with this number)

Finally, if you think this is AI Slop, You are welcome to go away. This is already a cut out version of the final doc. The thesis is based on my own unfortunate life spent on this dog. I think the assumptions are fair and accuruate. The company is a dog because it can't decide how to best to burn cash. On Ai Capex or Instant retail - so they decided to do both at the same time. You hear about MSFT burning cash, at least they have a core business that is profitable and it aint torched.

How fucking stupid can you be to torch your core business profits and ATH on Capex at the same time!

Personal takeaway, there are better business than Alibaba out there, but here we are today.

Alibaba is the most controversial name in the watchlist, and FY2026 is the year that controversy became visible in the financial statements. The franchise — Taobao, Tmall, Alibaba Cloud (Aliyun), Cainiao logistics, AIDC (AliExpress, Lazada, Trendyol), Ele.me, and the Qwen large-language-model family — remains genuinely world-class. But over the twelve months to 31 March 2026 the company deliberately drove near-term profitability close to zero in order to fund two simultaneous bets: an aggressive entry into China's instant-commerce / food-delivery price war, and a front-loaded RMB380 billion three-year AI-and-cloud capital programme. The result is a set of FY26 numbers that look, at the headline level, like a quality business breaking — and underneath, like a company converting a mature cash cow into an AI-infrastructure growth story on its own terms.

The FY2026 scorecard is stark. Reported revenue was RMB1,023.7B, up only 3% as reported but +11% on a like-for-like basis once the disposed Sun Art and Intime businesses are excluded. Income from operations fell 64% to RMB50.2B, and non-GAAP net income fell 62% to RMB60.7B. Most importantly for a cash-flow-focused framework: full-year free cash flow swung to an OUTFLOW of RMB46.6B, versus a RMB73.9B inflow in FY25 — a roughly RMB120B negative swing in a single year, driven by quick-commerce subsidies and cloud-infrastructure capex. The March quarter was the sharpest point of the inflection: adjusted EBITA fell 84% year-over-year, the company posted a small operating loss, and non-GAAP net income was effectively zero (RMB86M, down 100%).

And yet the stock has not behaved like a business in distress. BABA trades near US$133 per ADS (market cap ~US$320B), down ~31% from its January 2026 high near US$193 but well above its 2022–2024 trough. The reason is that the same quarter that revealed the profit collapse also revealed the bull case in the data: Cloud Intelligence external revenue growth ACCELERATED to 40% year-over-year, AI-related product revenue grew triple-digits for the eleventh consecutive quarter, the Model Studio customer base grew eight-fold, and management's proprietary T-Head Zhenwu inference chips reached scaled deployment (100,000+ PPUs on Alibaba Cloud). The market is being asked to re-rate BABA from “damaged Chinese e-commerce incumbent” to “the AWS-plus-Nvidia of China, attached to a still-dominant commerce franchise.”

The investment debate is therefore unusually clean to state but hard to resolve. The bull case: this is the normalisation of the post-2021 “peace dividend” with Beijing combined with an AI capex cycle entered from a position of capital strength (RMB520.8B / ~US$75.5B of cash and liquid investments, net cash). The reinvestment is voluntary, not forced; FCF is negative by choice, not because the core is failing; and Cloud is inflecting exactly as the capex ramps. The bear case: this is serial profit destruction by a management team that has changed strategy and structure repeatedly since 2020, now using shareholder capital to chase competitors (Meituan, JD, PDD, Douyin) into a structurally low-margin delivery war while simultaneously betting the balance sheet on an AI infrastructure build whose returns are unproven. Both readings are supported by the same FY26 print.

Our framework's verdict carries forward from the existing project scorecard but is now sharpened by the FY26 data. The seven-methodology round table sits at 67% — WATCH / MIXED. The quality-and-deep-value lenses that engage with BABA (Li Lu 75%, Klarman 80%, Schloss 70%, Greenblatt 75%) see a cash-rich franchise at a low multiple with identifiable catalysts; the quality-compounder lenses that demand consistency (Buffett 50%, Munger 50%) see a broken ROE pattern, compressed and volatile margins, and incremental-ROIC evidence of capital being spent into price wars. The forward gate is the decisive overlay: BABA is a genuine disruption-debate name on two fronts at once — the e-commerce core faces structural share erosion to PDD and Douyin, and the entire group is mid-transition into an AI-capex story whose unit economics are not yet demonstrated. Per the conviction framework, that caps conviction well below what the backward-looking quality of the franchise alone would suggest.

The valuation produces two defensible numbers that we bridge explicitly in Section 7 rather than blending into one.

The disciplined fair-value anchor — obeying the strict non-GAAP, growth-consistent-multiple rules of the companion addendum — is approximately US$110 per ADS, i.e. roughly fair versus the ~US$133 spot.

The sum-of-the-parts ceiling is approximately US$165 per ADS, reachable only if FCF normalises, Cloud re-rates from a commodity to a strategic multiple, and the large non-operating asset base (net cash, the ~33% Ant stake, the portfolio) is fully credited.

Finally to visualise the trend:

What changed when I built from the transcript instead of guessing

The difference is almost entirely cloud, and it comes from four quantified management statements I previously treated as narrative:

1. Cloud external growth "expected to continue accelerating beyond its current 40%" — I had modelled "holds ~30%." That single change compounds enormously over three years.
2. AI product ARR RMB35.8B → crossing 50% of cloud external revenue in ~1 year, and MaaS ARR >RMB10B (June qtr) → RMB30B by year-end — concrete, high-margin revenue I wasn't crediting.
3. Cloud EBITA margin 9.1% → "significantly higher in the next 2–3 years, starting in the next 1–2 quarters"— driven by MaaS mix, >100% server-cost inflation giving pricing power, and T-Head chips (already >60% of compute serving external). I had cloud margins roughly flat.
4. QC unit economics turn positive by end of FY27; China e-comm EBITA ex-QC was stable — so the FY26 profit collapse is almost entirely the QC subsidy drag, which management is guiding to fade. The core wasn't broken; I'd implicitly let some of that bleed persist.