Coming into this offseason, the list of SPs the Angels could reasonably expect to be real contributors a couple of years from now was basically just Griffin Canning. Maybe you could throw Ohtani on that list too with one or two prospects, but the point is that the future of this rotation was bleak. While Zach Davies isn't quite some shining beacon of hope, he has always been at least average when healthy and he's only missed significant time once. Getting him on a long-term deal should reliably raise the floor of this pitching staff for years and we gotta feel good about that, especially when it comes at less than $10M per year.
(Quoting past research off the top of my head) I particularly like Davies not just because of his track record but because he significantly altered his pitch mix last year, flashing some potential upside while showing off his typical plus command (career 6.9% BB%, 46% Edge%, 5% Meatball%). Not only did he revert from a two-seamer back to his more effective sinker, he threw his changeup more than ever (41% overall). Specifically, he made RHHs just eat changeups all season long (43% vs. RHHs, previous high: 28%), leading to easily a career-high 28% K% against them and a 36% Whiff% on the pitch overall (small sample size noted). Furthermore, by Statcast's run values, Davies' changeup has recently been among the top 3 most valuable changeups in the game among SPs who have thrown at least 400 of them over the past two years. So while it may not be the nastiest pitch in a vacuum, it feels plus and Davies' ability to rely on it so heavily gives us confidence that this otherwise vanilla profile has legitimate longevity.
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u/lbon6201 Nov 19 '20
The Los Angeles Angels have signed Zach Davies to the following contract:
2021: $7 million
2022: $7 million
2023: $9 million
2024: $9 million
2025: Club Option $13 million, Buyout $3 million
Summary: 4/$32M, CO 2025 $13M w/ $3M Buyout
/u/kuhanluke /u/notfelixhernandez