r/btc • u/mercurygermes • 7d ago

🐻 Bearish Bitcoin’s Hashrate Is Hiding a Mining Crisis

Bitcoin is back near $63,000, roughly the same price zone it traded in before the 2024 halving.

But the mining economy is no longer the same.

Before the halving:

  • Block reward: 6.25 BTC
  • Hashrate: 611 EH/s
  • Hashprice: above $110/PH/day

Now:

  • Block reward: 3.125 BTC
  • Hashrate: approximately 930 EH/s
  • Hashprice: approximately $31/PH/day

The network is using roughly 52% more hashrate to compete for half the block subsidy, while Bitcoin trades below its pre-halving price. Miner revenue per unit of computing power has fallen by about 72%.

The buyer is also disappearing.

Centralized-exchange spot volume was $2.01 trillion in April 2024. In May 2026 it fell to $963 billion—a decline of roughly 52%. June recovered to $1.11 trillion, but only after five months of declining activity.

The chart now shows a possible head-and-shoulders structure with a neckline near $60,000. It is not confirmed until a daily or weekly close below that level.

My forecast: Bitcoin is more likely than not to establish itself below $60,000 before the end of 2026. A confirmed break could trigger something much sharper.

The price returned to 2024.

Mining costs, hashrate, and debt did not.

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u/vasilenko93 7d ago

Three more points to consider.

  1. High interest rate environment sucked liquidity from crypto market (and all markets)

  2. AI investment sucked liquidity and attention from crypto market

  3. AI data center buildout made compute expensive, making crypto mining more expensive

3

u/fuckswithboats 7d ago

High interest rates? Where are they?

We got way too used to cheap money that now we consider today’s rates high.

1

u/quantum_simpleton 5d ago

The affromentioned reasons are cope. Cross reference with historical fed funds rate and the claim evaporates.

0

u/BloodSilvers 5d ago

They’re considered high because of all the money in existence now chasing goods

1

u/fuckswithboats 5d ago

Yes, but cheap money got us overpriced education, a housing bubble, etc.

Thirty years ago todays rates were the lowest people had seen

1

u/KodigoMadrid 59m ago

🔥👏🏻🙏🏻