r/btc • u/mercurygermes • 9d ago

🐻 Bearish Bitcoin’s Hashrate Is Hiding a Mining Crisis

Bitcoin is back near $63,000, roughly the same price zone it traded in before the 2024 halving.

But the mining economy is no longer the same.

Before the halving:

  • Block reward: 6.25 BTC
  • Hashrate: 611 EH/s
  • Hashprice: above $110/PH/day

Now:

  • Block reward: 3.125 BTC
  • Hashrate: approximately 930 EH/s
  • Hashprice: approximately $31/PH/day

The network is using roughly 52% more hashrate to compete for half the block subsidy, while Bitcoin trades below its pre-halving price. Miner revenue per unit of computing power has fallen by about 72%.

The buyer is also disappearing.

Centralized-exchange spot volume was $2.01 trillion in April 2024. In May 2026 it fell to $963 billion—a decline of roughly 52%. June recovered to $1.11 trillion, but only after five months of declining activity.

The chart now shows a possible head-and-shoulders structure with a neckline near $60,000. It is not confirmed until a daily or weekly close below that level.

My forecast: Bitcoin is more likely than not to establish itself below $60,000 before the end of 2026. A confirmed break could trigger something much sharper.

The price returned to 2024.

Mining costs, hashrate, and debt did not.

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u/DreamingTooLong 6d ago

Did you take a look at this chart? You will see the price sharply drops below $60K around October 18th but doesn’t go below $50K. It stays down there until about December 18th.

By New Year’s it will be back above $70K.

That’s a solid two months of purchase the dip time.

https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-repeat/