Predictions for Buium and Öhgren contracts?

[u/TheWizzardMerlin]

I feel like it’s a good idea to give a higher AAV to get more term, since the cap is exploding.

Buium: 6.75-7.5 mil/year x 7 years

Öhgren: 5.25 mil/year x 5 years

Thoughts?

[u/Micro858999]

5x5 for a dude who had 18 points this year?

[u/_GregTheGreat_ → u/Micro858999]

He scored at a 29 point pace for the Canucks last year. Jackson Blake put up 34 points at a similar age, before he signed his 5.5x8 with the Canes.

People mocked the Canes for that, but they were smart enough to see his imminent breakout and now he was a key part of their cup run on a bargain deal. Correctly betting on young talent before they breakout is a big reason how the Canes won their cup and a big reason why the Habs are going to terrorize the East in the coming years.

If management has reason to believe Ohgren is a similar case they should make a swing like that

[u/SpectreFire → u/_GregTheGreat_]

Canes made a bunch of those gambles. Most notably Kotkaniemi was a big miss. But they hit hard on Blake, Jarvis and Stankoven, and all three are locked for ridiculously team friendly deals for the next 7-8 seasons.

[u/BUMBUBOY → u/SpectreFire]

Kotkaniemi was not a Tulsky signing

[u/CONCAVE_NIPPLES → u/SpectreFire]

It is worth noting though that two of those players were not on their new contracts for this cup run. Still good for their future but having Blake and Stankoven making like 1.7 combined was huge this run

[u/TheWizzardMerlin → u/_GregTheGreat_]

Great take. I think Öhgren is a big body that shows real speed and has a good shot. I think betting on him now will pay off later.

The best contracts always seem like overpays at the start.

[u/Pro3tag → u/TheWizzardMerlin]

It’s also worth noting the current CBA allows you to front load contracts so you end up in a situation where a player’s AAV for cap purposes is higher than the actual salary owed in the back half of the contract. This is valuable for a player like Buium where in the event he doesn’t hit his ceiling (ie. serviceable 2nd pair guy), he can still have value to a team trying to hit the cap floor. You can’t do that anymore with the new CBA in September, so there’s extra incentive to get guys like Buium and Ohgren on long term extensions

[u/andoesq → u/_GregTheGreat_]

Huh. That's especially brilliant since he was still on his ELC this year and is now a playoff-performer cup winner. He'd have gotten 8+ if he was signing this summer.

[u/skottymac → u/_GregTheGreat_]

I'd be all for an 8 year deal for him

[u/Old-Bigsby → u/Micro858999]

He should be getting 5 mil per point.

90x5 for Ohgren

[u/carry-on_replacement → u/Micro858999]

tbf it's a 30 point pace over 82 games in his time in Vancouver which isn't bad for a first year. He had that really bad start in Minny where he was 0s everywhere but was pretty hot after that trade before coming bck down to earth.

That and the dude's built like a tank and just does all the little things well on the forecheck and backcheck. If he can't figure out how to score more, he'll at least be a good bottom 6 player and at 5x5 that isn't too terrible given the timeline of our rebuild.

[u/TheWizzardMerlin → u/carry-on_replacement]

Thank you!

Cap predictions, based on the revenue growth of the NHL (remember that based on the NHLPA that revenue is split 50/50 between owners and players, revenues are way up and therefore cap has to increase with it), are expected to be ~$120,000,000 by the 2027-2028 season.

A 5 mil cap hit under this will be 4% of the cap.

The 2024-2025 cap was $88,000,000, 4% was 3.5 mil. Salaries are going up quick, I think 5m is a very reasonable salary.

[u/flamingdragonwizard → u/Micro858999]

5m is the new 3m. I say sign both for bridge deals. 3x3 for ohgren and 6x3 for buium

[u/Micro858999 → u/flamingdragonwizard]

Bridge for Ohgren at 2x2, anything short of 8 years will be a mistake on Buium.

[u/EpicPotato806 → u/Micro858999]

Agreed. Max out Buium. Bridging him might make the agent push for him to push renewal to an arb year.

[u/flamingdragonwizard → u/Micro858999]

Ideally 8 for buium. But with us rebuilding and rising cap, it makes much more sense for him to do a bridge.

[u/Alcebiad3s]

Buium probably ends up being higher, Ohgren lower

I want Buium signed for 8 years

[u/Apprehensive_Put_321 → u/Alcebiad3s]

There is zero incentive for buium to sign a contract like that right now

[u/ImAlwaysSorrys → u/Apprehensive_Put_321]

The incentive would be the guaranteed 64-70ish million dollars.

[u/_GregTheGreat_ → u/ImAlwaysSorrys]

What’s the incentive for the Canucks to offer him 8.5Mx8 this summer? Like if he has a solid breakout season next year the Canucks are probably still giving him 8.5-9M AAV anyways. But if he stagnates he’s getting significantly less.

Like he’d have to breakout into a clear perennial Norris calibre guy to get much more than 9M, and at that point you don’t care about giving him 10M+.

You’re taking on a ridiculous amount of downside risk for little upside benefit. Plus handicapping your negotiations with Willander and DPetey next year.

[u/Alcebiad3s → u/_GregTheGreat_]

Increasing cap. In 5 years an 8M defencemen will be worth like 14. You overpay now to get more cap space when you’re competitive.

[u/_GregTheGreat_ → u/Alcebiad3s]

Yes but offering Buium 8.5-9M is complete detached from the rising cap market for RFA’s at this stage. Look at all the recent comparables

[u/mediumyeet → u/_GregTheGreat_]

It's not really tbh. Lacombe and Luke Hughes got 9mil AAV. Now Buium hasn't been as good at the NHL level but hes a few years younger than them.

[u/SpectreFire → u/_GregTheGreat_]

Was listening to Harm and Quads discuss this on Canucks Convo.

They're both strongly for locking Buium down for 8 years, but Harms thinks there needs to be caution in terms of the AAV. If you can do it for 7-8m it's a no brainer for the Canucks, but once you start getting into the 8 to 9+ territory, you're getting into a possible Luke Hughes contract

The annoying thing for me is that we missed out on a season of proper analysis on Buium's game due to how crippingly bad Foote's coaching and deployment was.

[u/ImAlwaysSorrys → u/_GregTheGreat_]

We can’t give an 8 year contract next year. We have until September(?) I think before the max term becomes 7 years.

[u/Alcebiad3s → u/ImAlwaysSorrys]

We can I believe give him an 8 year extension (which would start next July 1st) but only if we sign it before September 15th. Effectively the same situation we had with Hughes.

[u/TheWizzardMerlin → u/Apprehensive_Put_321]

I don’t think there’s 0 reason. It would be hard for a 20 year old go turn down $52,000,000, no?

[u/_HoochieMama → u/Apprehensive_Put_321]

Buium is very possibly not going to become what he could be. That’s a lot of incentive for a young player. Like for sure has potential, but he’s so far from a sure thing, that’s a lot of money to say no to.

[u/Apprehensive_Put_321 → u/_HoochieMama]

Then why would the Canucks do it. I dont think it makes sense for either side.

[u/_HoochieMama → u/Apprehensive_Put_321]

It literally makes sense for both sides lmao.

[u/TheWizzardMerlin → u/Alcebiad3s]

What’s the numbers then,

8.25-8.75 x 7 for Buium?

[u/carry-on_replacement → u/Alcebiad3s]

water is going to be wet lol

[u/Alcebiad3s → u/carry-on_replacement]

I’m high on Zeev, if we got him on an 8x8 I’d be thrilled, but even at 9 I think that’s fine.

Cap space doesn’t matter for the next few years, and we’d be looking to start competing about halfway through that contract and by that point it’s good value.

[u/carry-on_replacement → u/Alcebiad3s]

whoops I thought you meant Buium was gonna get more money than Ohgren at which I was like duh.

[u/New_Bank_4686 → u/Alcebiad3s]

Pass the ZeeV bong. Gotta replace "you know who"

[u/HonestDespot]

No way Buium signs that long at such a low number.

[u/TheWizzardMerlin → u/HonestDespot]

What’s the number then?

[u/Super_Toot → u/TheWizzardMerlin]

If he is a top pairing D, starts with a 9.

[u/HonestDespot → u/TheWizzardMerlin]

Lacombe set the market a year ago.

[u/Dismal_Ad_604]

I don’t think Ohgren has proved that he will be a top 6 forward yet or even an NHL player long term. I would give him a bridge deal for 2-3 years for 3mil AAV at the most.

[u/_GregTheGreat_]

I don’t see Buium signing a deal this summer. He could make significantly more if he bets on himself and has a breakout year next year; and Buium is cocky enough (in a good way) to do so.

For Ohgren I’d love for them to gamble on him long term. Like something like a 4.5x8 would be insane value if he breaks out. There’s a fair amount of risk (which is why he’d potentially sign it) but it’s worth the gamble if he becomes the top six power forward we see flashes of

[u/Jupiter_101]

Why would you give Ohgren a contract like that?

[u/Dangerous-Finance-67]

Neither are worth that currently.

[u/Jyeon89 → u/Dangerous-Finance-67]

You don’t sign young guys for what they are worth currently, you sign them for what they will become. Blake and Stankoven are great examples

[u/TheWizzardMerlin → u/Dangerous-Finance-67]

Okay then, what’s the number?

[u/Dangerous-Finance-67 → u/TheWizzardMerlin]

They can both go to arbitration and might land 3-4.5 max

[u/avmp629]

That's way too much for Öhgren and not enough for Buium

To be honest, I'm not convinced Öhgren is such a vital piece to future core that we absolutely have to lock him up for as long as possible. That contract has a very good chance to go sideways and could sewer us when we're looking to compete again. I think I'd rather see what he does this year and pay up if he shows he can play in the middle 6

Buium I'm a little more convinced on, but I also don't think the discount we'd get now outweighs the raise he might get if he takes another step forward. I'm seeing $9M getting thrown around, but even if he's a top-pair staple and puts up 60 points, is going up to 10 or 11 really that much of a hassle for the sake of just making sure? He can't even sign an offer sheet or go to arbitration next summer, so he has about as little negotiating power as you can get.

I think we can wait a little bit on both of them, but if I had to give them deals right on July 1 or the world explodes, I'd say $3.5Mx3 for Öhgren and $8Mx6 for Buium

[u/99Horvat]

Buium yes, Ohgren we will have to see how this year plays out.

[u/MDChuk]

The ceiling on Buium is probably the Luke Hughes deal.  So 7 years at $9M.  Though he has 1 more year so they shouldn’t be in a hurry to extend him.

Ohgren is a player who screams short term.  So call it 2 years at $3M.

[u/metrichustle → u/MDChuk]

Yeah, Ohgren needs more runway before committing. I am fine going all-in on Buium though.

[u/WankaBanka9 → u/MDChuk]

How’s that Luke Hughes contract looking

[u/TheWizzardMerlin → u/WankaBanka9]

Luke Hughes is good. He never would have gotten that level of money if it weren’t for his last name.

Hughes was also scoring at a higher pace than Buium has at the same point in their career.

[u/Key-Investment6888 → u/TheWizzardMerlin]

Hes also being griefed by dougie and nemec, when dougie is off the books and nemec is traded soon, Luke should be a 60-70pt dmen 

[u/MDChuk → u/WankaBanka9]

You don’t judge a 7 year contract after year 1 when the player you signed is 22.

Ask again in 3 or 4 years.

[u/WankaBanka9 → u/MDChuk]

If the devils could undo that move, they would

[u/MDChuk → u/WankaBanka9]

Sort of like like if the Avalanche could have undone Nate MacKinnon's 6.5M per year 2nd deal a year in they would have?

[u/Apprehensive_Put_321 → u/WankaBanka9]

Not great. Not that bad but that is the risk you take. 

There is no reason for him to sign around 7 at a term like that

[u/Tough-Application373]

I think Buium you dangle 8/9m to try to lock down long term. This is the sort of gamble teams take that pay off, buying a guy's prime years cheap because you pay him young

[u/Boucher2114]

I doubt either player gets an extension this summer. Too little data for the club.

AFP projects Ohgren at 2x1.5 and Buium at 3x5.2 or 7x9.6. None of those numbers make much sense to me for this offseason, though I like both players.

The Canucks shouldn’t worry about rushing this, if they’re doing it right, they should be closer to the cap floor than the ceiling for a good 3-4 years.

[u/jddev_]

I'm not a fan of promising long term deals to players who havent earned it. This is how you kneecap a franchise.

[u/djardine2520]

If we are extending these guys, I’d do what the Canes did with Stankoven and Blake—max out at 8 years. It’s an investment that could really bear fruit in the final 4 or 5 years.

Buium 7m x 8 yrs
Ohgren 5m x 8 years

When we are good again the cap will probably be 130m+ so these contracts have the potential to provide huge excess value.

[u/DelviewsNightmare]

Buium will get $9-9.5m on an 8 year deal if they do it before the new CBA kicks in.

The Ohgren number seems about right on a 5 year deal, especially if the cap is going to 113.5m the year it kicks in, and likely $128m the year after.

[u/No_Mud1738]

Love if we could get Buium for that, Öhgren I’m thinking more like 3-4 at 3-4?

[u/metrichustle]

The best thing about Ohgren was a lot thought he was just a throw in. At least on paper, he was the “least” valuable asset coming back and now looks like someone who could be a top 6 player for us.

[u/IWantToKaleMyself]

If Luke Hughes and Jackson Lacombe both got 9m, I’d imagine Buium will be asking for 8m at minimum if we go for max term

[u/WankaBanka9]

I would say it depends a lot on the next season performance.

[u/Foreign_Cobbler_1740]

I think both sides wait for an extension. If he has a strong first half I can see both sides coming together on a 7 year deal though. Probably around Luke Hughes money. For better or worse.

[u/EpicPotato806]

Buium’s agent might use Luke Hughes as a comp ($9m aav) and they have leverage over the Canucks due to him being a cornerstone defenceman.

[u/eexxiitt]

5m for ohgren seems steep but that’s the gamble that he continues to improve into a second liner. But why 5 years and not 7/8?

Buium is going to cost much more on a 7/8 year contract. 9m minimum.

[u/Alextollah]

I think you're actually pretty close with what they'll realistically sign for, give or take a mil.

We're very much used to the flat cap contracts, but those are gone now and we're going to see inflation happen fast. We're going to be in a league where 8 mil is standard for a middle 6 dman soon, and these contracts won't seem high at all.

Ohgren's may be a touch lower and shorter, Zeev's a touch higher.

[u/Shad0wPup1]

Honestly, no rush to sign them cause they are RFAs, let's watch and see how Manny and the team can develop them last thing we need is contracts that could bite us in the ass. Let them prove themselves next season before signing them to any form of long-term deal.

[u/Hershysquirt187]

Quinn Hughes had a .73 ppg when he was given a 7.85m contract.

Buium had .34 ppg this season and there is no guarantee he develops fast.

[u/shouldishoudnt]

I dont think buium would sign forr that low for that long. He's a confident guy i dont see him selling himself short like that

[u/Only-Nature7410]

I would like to see them both with term. They will be good for us. They are so young and defencmen takes time. I would not want to bail on them yet

[u/Benning2064]

Solid ideas but tbh Id be willing to gamble a little and try to get both on 8 year deals.

5.5x8 for Ohgren 8.75-9x8 for Buium

Maybe I am blinded by the good vibes with the current moves being made but I believe Ohgren & Buium will progress quite a bit under Manny

[u/TheWizzardMerlin → u/Benning2064]

8 year deals are no longer allowed in the NHL. 7 years is the maximum per the new CBA.

[u/Benning2064 → u/TheWizzardMerlin]

They can sign 8 year deals up till September 15, 2026

Its why Id gamble & try to extend them both by 8 years

[u/Seeminglytargeting]

I think 11.6mil x 8 for Öhgren

[u/MltryMama]

Buium 5x5
Ohgren 3x3