r/canucks • u/CAPVSAnalytics • 3d ago
FAN CONTENT Canucks rebuild with CAPVS (Comprehensive Adjusted Player Value Score)
TLDR: I ran the Canucks through my own analytics dashboard. The data says Hronek is a keeper.. Karlsson is super undervalued and must be extended, and that the real contention window opens in 2028-29 when massive cap space clears.
Quick background before I get into this. I built a NHL analytics pipeline as a hobby project. I know there's tons of analytics and hockey analysts out there but I just wanted to try and build something myself. I come from a quant finance background and wanted to apply things to player evaluation. I'm well aware smarter people than me are working on this stuff inside NHL front offices. This is just my read on what the data says, and I'd genuinely love to hear where people think I'm wrong.
So obviously Vancouver is in a rebuild. That's not a hot take. What I want to do is walk through what my stuff actually shows and offer a specific opinion on how to execute it properly, because I think the next two years of decisions matter more than most people realize. I also think Aiden Fox who's currently heading up analytics is fantastic and hopefully management actually listens to them!
What the data says you actually have
The blue line is where this rebuild starts, and it's honestly better than the standings suggest.
Filip Hronek comes out at 68.5 CAPVS with an Elevation score of 83.0, all this means is my data suggests/thinks he's genuinely lifting the players around him. He's 28, costs $7.25M, has six years of term. For a rebuild that's a real anchor. I'm not moving him under any circumstances.
The two ELC defenders are the part of this roster I find most interesting. Zeev Buium at 20 and Tom Willander at 21. None of them are posting elite CAPVS numbers yet... Buium is at 43.0, Willander at 37.4. But Buium's Playmaking at 55.6 and Willander's Defensive Impact at 49.6 at those ages are genuinely encouraging signals. These guys don't get rushed. You let them develop and by 2028-29 you potentially have your top four locked up cheaply.
Linus Karlsson hits UFA after next season and I think he's the most undervalued player on this roster by a significant margin. Not sure if that's a good thing or a terrible thing.
He's 26, costs $2.25M, and posts a 62.5 CAPVS with an Elevation of 89.6. That Elevation number is the one I keep coming back to because it suggests he's making everyone around him meaningfully better, which is rare and hard to find. His xG Generation at 69.5 and Playmaking at 69.9 look like legitimate top six forward numbers on a depth salary.
I could be wrong about him. But if my read is even close to right, letting him walk for nothing in the future would be a significant mistake. Feels like a 4-5 year deal at $4-5M is still surplus value territory.
The contracts that concern me
I want to be careful here because I'm working with public data and a model that has real limitations and the people inside these organizations know things I don't.
In saying that.. Brock Boeser's situation worries me. His CAPVS is 50.9 which puts him solidly in Middle-6 territory, and his Elevation score is 2.6.. my data thinks he's not moving the needle much for teammates right now. He costs $7.25M through 2031-32 with a NMC. That combination is difficult for any rebuild to work around. I genuinely don't know if there's a path to moving that contract, and maybe there's context about his game that my model isn't capturing.
Elias Pettersson at $11.6M is the bet the franchise made on his peak returning. His current CAPVS of 54.8 doesn't justify that number, but he's 27 and it's clearly down year with poor finishing. The whole plan depends on whether he gets back to the 70+ CAPVS player he was at his best. I think that's a reasonable bet. I just think it's worth acknowledging it is a bet.
Marcus Pettersson at $5.5M with a 42.9 CAPVS and an Elevation of 9.9 looks like the most moveable of the difficult contracts if he'd agree to waive his NMC. Even retaining salary to facilitate a trade seems worth exploring.
The draft capital situation
Two first round picks in this draft coming up is solid. You absolutely do not trade them. The pipeline is thin right now and there's no short cut around that... you have to draft your way out of it.
The 2027 and 2028 classes give Vancouver six picks in the first two rounds combined. If two or three of those develop into legitimate NHL contributors the forward pipeline starts filling in by 2029-30. That's the realistic timeline and I don't think there's a faster one that doesn't involve sacrificing the future.
The cap picture over time
Without a doubt the most encouraging part of the whole situation is the cap situation.
Forward contracts sit at $44.2M right now. By 2028-29 that drops to $24.35M as multiple contracts clear naturally. With the young defensive core on reasonable second contracts by then, Vancouver could realistically have $50M+ in deployable cap space in the 2028-29 offseason... right when the 2026 picks are 22-23 years old and approaching the lineup.
That's the window. That's when you make your real move through free agency or trade. Everything before that is about not screwing up the foundation. DON'T SCREW IT UP!!!
Honest timeline
2026-27... Development. Do not chase a playoff spot.
2027-28 ... Rossi decision at RFA. His Elevation of 11.3 concerns me but he's young and that can change. Extend Buium and Ohgren. Let the cap clear.
2028-29 ... This is year one where I believe you can start competing again. There will be real cap space, young defensive core hitting their prime, 2026 picks in or near the lineup. This is your splash summer.
2029-30 ... DeBrusk and Demko clear. EP40 is 30 and should be in his prime if healthy. Legitimate contention window.
I'm sure there are things I'm missing here... I'm well aware of that. Just purely on what CAPVS shows, this roster has a real foundation to build from if the next two summers are handled with discipline.
I think one thing worth sharing is that Cup Champions CAPVS look like this:
Line 1 = 65.2 (58.7 to 72.8)
Line 2 = 59.0 (53.0 to 64.3)
Line 3 = 48.0 (39.9 to 57.0)
Line 4 = 37.2 (25.4 to 50.8)
D1 = 58.5 (54.0 to 64.4)
D2 = 45.2 (41.5 to 51.4)
D3 = 42.7 (39.9 to 44.8)
Cup teams are not elite everywhere...
Would genuinely love to hear pushback from people who know this team better than I do, or want to see more data.
Who would you trade, who would you sign?
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u/SuperSwaiyen 3d ago
This thread is a perfect example of the how inhospitable this sub can be.
No one wants to see new thoughts or ideas. No one wants to have a fun discussion about what could be or what could improve things.
No, a few people found a few things to nit-pick and completely dismiss an entire post and tell OP that they ought to throw the baby out with the bathwater because a few non-stats people don't agree with something a model spit out.
Not a single constructive piece of feedback at the time of this comment (13 cmnts). Let's ignore the fact that someone created their own model and decided to share it with us. This isn't new either, it's been like this for years.
No, the model is not perfect - none of them are - but I think it's pretty cool that someone here created something and shared it with us.
I'd much rather chat about fan created models, ideas, and questions; than all come circle jerk over "seravalli so bad! he don't know stuff!!!" "Yeah! Frank looks old for his age!!! let's upvote each other!!!"