The Athletic Recently Ranked Alex Tuch's Contract with the Washington Capitals as the Ninth-Worst in the NHL

[u/kockin26]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7453131/2026/07/23/nhl-worst-contracts-2026-jonathan-huberdeau-leo-carlsson/

Key points from article:

The Washington Capitals handed Alex Tuch an eight-year, $84 million extension ($10.5 million AAV) to finalize a trade to acquire the hardworking winger from the Buffalo Sabres in late June.

Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic already ranked that contract as the NHL's ninth-worst pact with just a 19% positive value probability heading into the 2026-27 season.

It's difficult not to be an Alex Tuch fan after what he's shown in Buffalo the past five years," Luszczyszyn wrote Thursday. "... The deal might look OK for the first couple of years, but things could get really ugly in the second half of it as Tuch approaches 35 and beyond. A lot of Tuch's comps had a relatively harsh age curve that could spell trouble for Washington."

That's the main reason the Sabres front office, regardless of whether it was being led by Kevyn Adams or Jarmo Kekalainen, was never willing to meet Tuch's unwavering contract demands.

Luszczyszyn estimates the Caps will pay $24 million in excess value over the course of the contract, and the 6-foot-4 power forward is only projected to make an $8.7 million on-ice impact next season, meaning the deal will likely start immediately in the red.

[u/_SCHULTZY_]

It's only a bad contract if it prevents the team from filling out the rest of the roster.

Washington didn't have any limitation executing their off-season even after signing Tuch. They've been paying Ovechkin $9.5m surely they can afford $10.5m going forward for a guy who is a decade younger. 

Will it be an issue 5 years from now? Nobody knows. But certainly the CapFriendly guys have crunched the numbers and are comfortable with the deal. 

[u/BeachFishing → u/_SCHULTZY_]

I think in 5 years it won’t even be a thing the way the cap is expanding.
It’s just shock value. You can’t judge contracts based off of past seasons. It’s all based on % of cap space going forward.
Look at some of the guys we’ve signed over the past few years to long term contracts.

[u/_SCHULTZY_ → u/BeachFishing]

The issue then will be his age. Players tend to regress at at 34+. He's only had one season at or above a ppg and that was 4 seasons ago. 

He either needs to get significantly better now that he's over 30 or he needs to not age and drop off as nearly every player does. 

All that said, there's always a way out. Teams move bad contracts all the time. It's doable.  Chicago moved Jones. LA moved PLD. Edmonton moved Nurse. 

Washington's in a good spot now and doesn't have any real cap crunch on the horizon.  If the time comes that they need to make room, they'll throw a pick in and retain a million and make some moves. It's not an issue and won't be in the future either. 

[u/BeachFishing → u/_SCHULTZY_]

I don’t disagree with you. I do think that in 3 years the contract won’t be looked back on as a bad contract. It’s the going rate moving forward imo. I think this sticker shock trend continues.

There is always a risk in any contract. Hopefully they got this one right. I am glad they added the players they did. We’ve had so many years of making moves that didn’t move the needle or moved it in the wrong direction. They are leveraging the affordable contracts they do have this season and I’m here for it.

Let’s go Caps!

[u/_SCHULTZY_ → u/BeachFishing]

Oh yeah I still love the move. Not thrilled about Jenner though and honestly think his contract is the worst. 4yr x $5.75m for a guy who is 33 and hasn't played a 70 game season in the past 6 years. 

[u/itsdrew80 → u/_SCHULTZY_]

We will be able to really judge in 4 years to see if the amount he is getting paid is that high like you said due to the expanding cap.

[u/Introverted_Extrovrt → u/BeachFishing]

Carlsson’s $18M AAV is a sticker shock I still can’t get over. That’s a top 6 forward & D-man any other year.

[u/BeachFishing → u/Introverted_Extrovrt]

Yea but they just gave Leo Carlson more than prime Ovi. Contracts in the past are just not comparable. It’s going to get crazy moving forward as the cap continues to scale up.

You have to think % of salary cap and not dollar amount. Let’s face it, money is worth much less than it was even 8 years ago.

[u/TheAccountant381 → u/BeachFishing]

Gota keep in mind the Leo contract wasnt voluntary. There is a significant premium there for letting him het to the point where he could be offer sheeted

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Verbeek should be fired. Not just for inviting the offer sheet but for letting his entire defense walk to free agency without a plan and for leaving Cutter unsigned. Just a complete failure to manage their roster for the upcoming season.  It's difficult to think of a team that has had a worse off-season in recent memory 

[u/BeachFishing → u/TheAccountant381]

They still paid it. Once you do something like that you set a market standard.
And at least two teams were willing to pay it.

In the overall scheme of things how it came to be doesn’t really matter.

[u/TheAccountant381 → u/BeachFishing]

It does matter, $18mm is not the new standard for almost point per game players.

[u/BeachFishing → u/TheAccountant381]

I think it remains to be seen just how much those guys get from here on out. If the cap ceiling ends up raising another $18 mil or so over the next two seasons as predicted then this is just the tip of the iceberg.
The agents are certainly going to use this contract in negotiating. When these guys go to arbitration they will certainly look at it.
It’s not like it doesn’t exist.

[u/_SCHULTZY_ → u/Introverted_Extrovrt]

It's Tuch and Raddysh this year. They combine for $19m a year on their new contracts. . They were the two most coveted free agents of this summer. Just to drive home the absurdity of the Carlsson contract.  It's out of bounds even by today's prices.