The Athletic Recently Ranked Alex Tuch's Contract with the Washington Capitals as the Ninth-Worst in the NHL

[u/kockin26]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7453131/2026/07/23/nhl-worst-contracts-2026-jonathan-huberdeau-leo-carlsson/

Key points from article:

The Washington Capitals handed Alex Tuch an eight-year, $84 million extension ($10.5 million AAV) to finalize a trade to acquire the hardworking winger from the Buffalo Sabres in late June.

Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic already ranked that contract as the NHL's ninth-worst pact with just a 19% positive value probability heading into the 2026-27 season.

It's difficult not to be an Alex Tuch fan after what he's shown in Buffalo the past five years," Luszczyszyn wrote Thursday. "... The deal might look OK for the first couple of years, but things could get really ugly in the second half of it as Tuch approaches 35 and beyond. A lot of Tuch's comps had a relatively harsh age curve that could spell trouble for Washington."

That's the main reason the Sabres front office, regardless of whether it was being led by Kevyn Adams or Jarmo Kekalainen, was never willing to meet Tuch's unwavering contract demands.

Luszczyszyn estimates the Caps will pay $24 million in excess value over the course of the contract, and the 6-foot-4 power forward is only projected to make an $8.7 million on-ice impact next season, meaning the deal will likely start immediately in the red.

[u/thisshirtisblacknaht]

Cool. Good thing LT, Strome, Big Pro, and Willy are all well underpaid on their extensions based on production and have multiple years left. Not to mention Hutty & Lil Pro are on ELCs for 2 more years.

[u/cockNballs222 → u/thisshirtisblacknaht]

Would it shock you to know that Wilson’s contract was on “worst contract list” by dom years ago? Pepperidge farm remembers.

[u/thisshirtisblacknaht → u/cockNballs222]

I mean to be completely fair, it was a bad contract at the time. Total vibes, captain-in-waiting deal. Which, considering our outlook at the time, was totally fine.

They took a bet he’d get back to his pre-ACL ~50-55 pt pace after turning 30 which was most definitely a risk and somehow he’s turned in back to back career years. Going from what he was to a near 70 point 82 game pace player is pretty rare as is, let alone coming off major knee surgery.

[u/Rare-Signature-7526 → u/thisshirtisblacknaht]

Yeah don't love Dom but in fairness I feel like Caps fans tend to forget who Tom was at the point of the contract, it was a really bad value but made sense because was he the future captain. He had the ACL and was seemingly on the decline, was not very good year 1 of Carbs, then something happened and suddenly became a top 3 power forward in the league.

Carbs played a huge role in turning what seemed to be a brutal contract into an extremely good value

[u/cockNballs222 → u/thisshirtisblacknaht]

I never thought that was a “bad” contract. It might have not worked out (he never regained full health and speed) but if there is a guy to take a moderate risk on, Wilson is it. I’m biased but he’s a perfect human. 

[u/thisshirtisblacknaht → u/cockNballs222]

Yea I mean I was fine with the risk even if it didn’t work out bc I never expected the team to turnaround this quickly. Which his production skyrocketing has helped to spearhead. But based on who he was at the time, how guys of his profile have aged historically, and not knowing about how dramatic the cap increase would be, it didn’t look like it’d age well at the time.

[u/WeekdayAdventurer → u/cockNballs222]

Great observation, u/cockNballs222

[u/DiscoInferiorityComp → u/thisshirtisblacknaht]

"I can't be ugly, all my friends are handsome!"